Altcoin Season Overtime?

30 thg 4, 2017

Conventional wisdom suggests that BTC is about to make new highs, see the altcoins doom before it, and hear the lamentation of their bagholders. Just as it has always done in the past.

I am not going to argue that this will not happen - on the contrary - I believe that this altcoin boom will see a major correction, leading to much panic (and wonderful buying opportunities). However, this doom doesn't appear to be approaching just yet.

For now, the major alts (shown here using an average of all the margin-tradable pairs on Poloniex) are looking quite healthy. They do not appear to show the kind of weakness you would expect to see if Bitcoin was just about to paint the market red.

With this in mind, I am remaining bullish on the major altcoins for the time being. Even if BTC begins making new highs, it appears that the combined altcoin market is consolidating and will continue to outperform BTC for at least a little while longer.
----

This prediction comes with some cautions:

• The overreaching bullish altcoin market sentiment has pervaded many coins which have little fundamental value. You could compare this recent crypto boom to the dot.com bubble, where companies with no chance of ever turning a profit were valued in the Billions of dollars. When the bust eventually comes, these coins will dump first, fastest and hardest.
  
• Just as the current bullish atmosphere has dragged up these 'shitcoins', it is very likely that a panic wave of negative sentiment would infect the whole market - regardless of the merits of the individual coin. I suggest all traders keep an eye on coinmarketcap.com/charts/ and look for signs that the combined alcoin market cap has topped out. This may happen while the alts you are tradingg still appear strong.
  
• Individual coins will still follow their own cycles. Im not recommending you go long on everything, because even bull markets have losers.
  

This is my first idea. I'd like to hear your feedback.

P.S. I know many people think BTC is about to pop and all the alts are going to totally implode - but I haven't seen any actual TA to support this - so please let me know what I'm missing if you think I'm wrong.

30 thg 4, 2017

Ghi chú

BTC has broken up and is looking towards setting some new all-time highs. The immediate reaction from the market was a sudden selloff of alts and, at this time, it appears that more selloffs may follow.

As price was touching the top of the pennant in my altcoin chart, a move down for altcoins here is entirely consistent with the pattern.

If my theory pulls through, there may be some exceptional altcoin buying opportunities to take advantage of over the next few days.

Or, naturally, I could be proven wrong and altcoin season could already be over. In which case, the sharp upward curve on the altcoin market cap here: coinmarketcap.com/charts/ and the absurd valuation of some of the individual coins could provide some explanation.