XRPUSD 4H timeframe - big swing possible
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Hi there,
this is my very first technical analysis I made on my own. Any ideas, critizism, help etc. are more than welcome!
Currently, we are on the upper boundary of a bearish parallel channel that coincidentally crosses former support area turned resistance at 0.276, probably resulting in a very strong bounce off of the double resistance. Arrows indicate lower highs and lower lows. The bullish fake breakout on Aug 17 was quickly corrected. Channel boundaries have been tested several times, a breakout therefore is quite probable. While the price recently was located on the upper half of the channel and barely touched the lower boundary, bears are still strong. 20D and 50D SMA just recently fell below 200D SMA. Especially the 50D SMA has acted as a strong resistance in the last few days. RSI fell since the start of August, confirming the underlying bearish trend.
Depending on how how strong the price gets rejected around the 0.276 mark, if it gets rejected at all, there are 2 likely outcomes. Check on the 4H timeframe for trend continuation or reversal signs for an easy entry.
1. Bearish trend continues (red): Price breaks out of the channel aound 0.246. Next goal might be the resistance at 0.209. SL just inside of the channel for good RR. Beware of pullbacks after breakout.
2. Trend reversal (green): Possible channel breakout area coincides with former support/resistance at 0.246, which could result in a strong support and trend reversal. Beware of the resistance at 0.276. If market momentum is strong enough, it might break and price could go even higher. SL just inside of the channel; after the break of the 0.276 resistance SL can be moved just shy of it.
this is my very first technical analysis I made on my own. Any ideas, critizism, help etc. are more than welcome!
Currently, we are on the upper boundary of a bearish parallel channel that coincidentally crosses former support area turned resistance at 0.276, probably resulting in a very strong bounce off of the double resistance. Arrows indicate lower highs and lower lows. The bullish fake breakout on Aug 17 was quickly corrected. Channel boundaries have been tested several times, a breakout therefore is quite probable. While the price recently was located on the upper half of the channel and barely touched the lower boundary, bears are still strong. 20D and 50D SMA just recently fell below 200D SMA. Especially the 50D SMA has acted as a strong resistance in the last few days. RSI fell since the start of August, confirming the underlying bearish trend.
Depending on how how strong the price gets rejected around the 0.276 mark, if it gets rejected at all, there are 2 likely outcomes. Check on the 4H timeframe for trend continuation or reversal signs for an easy entry.
1. Bearish trend continues (red): Price breaks out of the channel aound 0.246. Next goal might be the resistance at 0.209. SL just inside of the channel for good RR. Beware of pullbacks after breakout.
2. Trend reversal (green): Possible channel breakout area coincides with former support/resistance at 0.246, which could result in a strong support and trend reversal. Beware of the resistance at 0.276. If market momentum is strong enough, it might break and price could go even higher. SL just inside of the channel; after the break of the 0.276 resistance SL can be moved just shy of it.
Ghi chú
XRP broke trough the resistance, wow! Now we can expect the market to test the former resistance turned support. If it get's rejected, we can long.
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