a counter trend corrective wave 4 up

We have completed the wave 3 down I called for and are bouncing from the level called, in previous posts. Now we will go up as high as R1 before potentially descending on a 5th wave down.

If we break the R1 that would be very Bullish. Remember at any point it time the odds are 50/50% of going higher or lower, fact. So you have to see both possibilities.

Wave 4 is the hardest wave to read, as wave 2 is simple and corrective, and wave 4 is complex and corrective.

I am a contrarian so I will short the top of the 4th wave with a STOP above R1 in a few days timeframe.

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When I say a STOP above the r1 I refer the reader to the double top in May.

Above that i would be long.

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May and October 2018. I will probably try a low risk short around 2600 as it would invalidate the pattern even there.

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now that I look again the lowest risk trade would be to short at pivot with a stop above the last impulsive wave down in a daily timeframe. This depends on your trading, are you a day trader, or swing trader like me, or a buy and holder.

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next wave down soonish

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I took an ES short here. I tend to get in early.

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It's a swing trade not a daytrade.

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yup, a corrective 4th wave up, as predicted/

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again, at any instant the odds of up and down are 50/50% but there is an inverted head and shoulders, which indicates a possible down move.

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I will risk a small money stop out, that if we go down it will be impulsive.