Price Excess with Adjustable RecoveryIndicator: Price Excess with Adjustable Recovery
This indicator detects excessive price movements and displays a potential recovery level. It is particularly useful for identifying trading opportunities after significant market movements.
>> Key Features:
1. Detection of upward and downward price excesses
2. Display of an adjustable recovery level
3. Customizable parameters to adapt to different instruments and timeframes
>> Adjustable Parameters:
- Period: Number of candles for calculating the average and standard deviation (default: 14)
- Excess Threshold: Number of standard deviations to consider a movement as excessive (default: 1.5)
- Recovery Percentage: Recovery level as a percentage (default: 50%)
>> Usage:
1. Red triangles indicate a downward excess
2. Green triangles signal an upward excess
3. The blue line represents the potential recovery level
>> Possible Strategies:
- Counter-trend: Consider buying during downward excesses and selling during upward excesses
- Trend-following: Use the recovery level as a potential profit target
>> Usage Tips:
- Combine this indicator with other technical analysis tools to confirm signals
- Adjust the parameters according to the asset's volatility and your trading horizon
- Use appropriate risk management, as excessive movements can sometimes continue
Feel free to experiment with the parameters to find the configuration that best suits your trading style. Happy trading!
By DL INVEST
Excess
Blockunity Excess Index (BEI)Identify excess zones resulting in market reversals by visualizing price deviations from an average.
The Excess Index (BEI) is designed to identify excess zones resulting in reversals, based on price deviations from a moving average. This moving average is fully customizable (type, period to be taken into account, etc.). This indicator also multiplies the moving average with a configurable coefficient, to give dynamic support and resistance levels. Finally, the BEI also provides reversal signals to alert you to any risk of trend change, on any asset.
The Idea
The goal is to provide the community with a visual and customizable tool for analyzing large price deviations from an average.
How to Use
Very simple to use, this indicator plots colored zones according to the price's deviation from the moving average. Moving average extensions also provide dynamic support and resistance. Finally, signals alert you to potential reversal points.
Elements
The Moving Average
The Moving Average, which defaults to a gray line over 200 periods, serves as a stable reference point. It is accompanied by an Index, whose color varies from yellow to orange to red, offering an overview of market conditions.
Extensions
These dynamic lines can be used to determine effective supports and resistances.
Signals
Green and red triangles serve as clear indicators for buy and sell signals.
Settings
Mainly, the type of moving average is configurable. The default is an SMA.
A Simple Moving Average (SMA) calculates the average of a selected range of prices by the number of periods in that range.
But you can also, for example, switch the mode to EMA.
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a moving average that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points:
You also have WMA.
A Weighted Moving Average (WMA) gives more weight on recent data and less on past data:
And finally, the possibility of having a PCMA.
PCMA takes into account the highest and lowest points in the lookback period and divides this by two to obtain an average:
You can change other parameters such as lookback periods, as well as the coefficient used to define extension lines.
You can refer to the tooltips directly in the indicator parameters.
For those who prefer a minimalist display, you can activate a "Bar Color" in the settings (You must also uncheck "Borders" and "Wick" in your Chart Settings), and deactivate all other elements as you wish:
Finally, you can customize all the different colors, as well as the parameters of the table that indicates the Index value and the asset trend.
How it Works
The Index is calculated using the following method:
abs_distance = math.abs(close - base_ma)
bei = (abs_distance - ta.lowest(abs_distance, lookback_norm)) / (ta.highest(abs_distance, lookback_norm) - ta.lowest(abs_distance, lookback_norm)) * 100
Signals are triggered according to the following conditions:
A Long (buy) signal is triggered when the Index falls below 100, when the closing price is lower than 5 periods ago, and when the price is under the moving average.
A Short (sell) signal is triggered when the Index falls below 100, when the closing price is greater than 5 periods ago, and when the price is above the moving average.
[Pt] Daily Market Profile / TPOA great mentor of mine once told me, trading is like driving. When you are driving, there are directions and road signs to follow. The key areas and levels from TPO market profile are the road signs in trading, you shouldn't trade without them much like you shouldn't drive without road signs, as you will get lost.
From Wikipedia: "A Market Profile is an intra-day charting technique (price vertical, time/activity horizontal) devised by J. Peter Steidlmayer, a trader at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), ca 1959-1985. Steidlmayer was seeking a way to determine and to evaluate market value as it developed in the day time frame. The concept was to display price on a vertical axis against time on the horizontal, and the ensuing graphic generally is a bell shape--fatter at the middle prices, with activity trailing off and volume diminished at the extreme higher and lower prices." If you are unfamiliar with the concept, search for Market Auction Theory, Market Profile, and TPO on the web.
What's cool about this script?
As a professional trading, you should be drafting a trading plan and drawing all your key areas and levels before entering a trade. If you are trading with market profile, with this script, you no longer have to spend the time it takes to manually draw those key areas and levels. All are automatically generated with this script to give you the visual cues in your trades~!!
**IMPORTANT** Please note that due to the limitation on TradingView, there can only be limited number of boxes and lines that can be generated per indicator. Hence, this script only aims to provide you with as many key areas and levels as possible. This may be mitigated by having multiple instances of this indicator. Please use at your risk and discretion.
This script provides a comprehensive set of indicators / elements of daily TPO market profile, which includes the following:
- Market Profile based on TPO
- Point of Control (POC)
- Value Area (VA)
- Single Prints (SP)
- Excess (EX)
- Naked vs Visited (Touched) POC and VA
This script also includes the following key features that hopes to provide value in your trading:
- Automatically generated key areas and levels, including all the elements above
- Those key areas and levels will fade away as they become less significant, based on number of crosses and touches
- Customizable display settings
- Customizable session for generating the MP
- Two positions for MP placement
Setting descriptions:
SPX Excess CAPE YieldHere we are looking at the Excess CAPE yield for the SPX500 over the last 100+ years
"A higher CAPE meant a lower subsequent 10-year return, and vice versa. The R-squared was a phenomenally high 0.9 — the CAPE on its own was enough to explain 90% of stocks’ subsequent performance over a decade. The standard deviation was 1.37% — in other words, two-thirds of the time the prediction was within 1.37 percentage points of the eventual outcome: this over a quarter-century that included an equity bubble, a credit bubble, two epic bear markets, and a decade-long bull market."
assets.bwbx.io
In December of 2020 Dr. Robert Shiller the Yale Nobel Laurate suggested that an improvement on CAPE could be made by taking its inverse (the CAPE earnings yield) and subtracting the us10 year treasury yield.
"His model plainly suggests that stocks will do badly over the next 10 years, and that bonds will do even worse. This was the way Shiller put it in a research piece for Barclays Plc in October, (which can be found on SSRN Below):
In summary, investors expect a certain return in equities as compensation for investing in a riskier asset class, and as interest rates have declined, the relative expected return for equities has increased dramatically. We believe this may quantitatively help to explain investors current preference for equities over bonds, and as such the quick recoveries we are observing (with the exception of the UK), whilst still in the midst of a pandemic. In the US in particular, we are once again observing stretched valuations and high CAPE ratios compared to history."
Sources:
papers.ssrn.com
www.bloomberg.com
The standard trading view disclaimer applies to this post -- please consult your own investment advisor before making investment decisions. This post is for observation only and has no warranty etc. www.tradingview.com
Best,
JM
Bollinger bubble | Stock EditionBollinger bubble is an edition for market like CAC40, DJ30, ..
The market are uptrend with the inflation, this edition only buy (you have less risk then sell)
We buy when a candle open & close outside the lower bollingers band and we target the last highest point on the last 10 candles.
