WillStop Pro [tradeviZion]WillStop Pro : A Step-by-Step Guide for Beginners to Master Trend Trading
Welcome to an in-depth guide to the WillStop Pro indicator. This article will walk you through the key features, how to use them effectively, and how this tool can help you navigate the markets confidently. WillStop Pro is based on principles established by Larry Williams, a well-known figure in trading, and aims to help you manage trades more effectively without overcomplicating things.
This guide will help you understand the basics of the WillStop Pro indicator, how to interpret its signals, and how to use it step-by-step to manage risk and identify opportunities in your trading journey. We will also cover the underlying logic and calculations for advanced users interested in more details.
What is the WillStop Pro Indicator?
The WillStop Pro indicator is a user-friendly tool that helps traders establish stop levels dynamically. It helps you figure out optimal points to enter or exit trades, while managing risk effectively during changing market conditions. The indicator tracks trending markets and sets price levels as stops for ongoing trades, making it suitable both for deciding when to enter and exit trades.
The indicator is beginner-friendly because it simplifies complex calculations and presents the results visually. This allows traders to focus more on their decision-making process instead of spending time with complex analysis.
WillStop Pro adapts to different market conditions, whether you're trading stocks, forex, commodities, or cryptocurrencies. It adjusts stop levels dynamically based on current market momentum, providing a practical way to manage both risk and reward.
Another significant benefit of WillStop Pro is that it works well with other indicators. Beginners can use it on its own or combine it with other tools like moving averages or oscillators to form a comprehensive trading strategy. Whether you are trading daily or looking at longer-term trends, WillStop Pro helps you manage your trades effectively.
Key Features of WillStop Pro
Dynamic Stop Levels : WillStop Pro calculates real-time stop levels for both long (buy) and short (sell) positions. This helps you protect your profits and reduce risk. The stop levels adjust based on the current market environment, making them more adaptable compared to fixed stop levels.
Advanced Stop Settings : There are optional settings to make the stop calculations more advanced, which take into consideration previous price movements to refine where the stops should be placed. These settings provide more precise control over your trades.
Break Signals and Alerts : The indicator provides visual signals, like arrows, to show when a stop level has been broken. This makes it easier for you to identify possible reversals and understand when the market direction is changing.
Comprehensive Table Display : A small table on the chart shows the current trend, the stop level, and whether advanced mode is active. This simple display provides an overview of the market, making decision-making easier.
Based on Larry Williams' Methodology : WillStop Pro builds upon Larry Williams' ideas, which are designed to capture major market trends while managing risk effectively. It provides a systematic way to follow these strategies without requiring deep technical analysis skills.
How Are Stop Levels Calculated? (For Advanced Users)
The WillStop Pro indicator determines stop levels by evaluating highs, lows, and closing prices over a specific lookback period. It uses this information to identify key points that justify adjusting your stop level, and there are separate approaches for both long and short positions.
Below, we explain the mathematical logic behind the stop calculations, along with some code snippets to give advanced users a clearer understanding.
For Long Stops (buy positions): The indicator looks for the highest closing price within the lookback period and continues until it finds three valid bars that meet certain criteria. Stops are adjusted to skip bars that have consecutive upward closes to ensure that the stop is placed at a level that offers solid support. Specifically, the function iterates over recent bars to determine the highest closing value, and checks for specific conditions before finalizing the stop level. Here is an excerpt of the relevant code:
getTrueLow(idx) => math.min(low , close )
findStopLevels() =>
float highestClose = close
int highestCloseIndex = 0
for i = 0 to lookback
if close > highestClose
highestClose := close
highestCloseIndex := i
// Logic to adjust based on up close skipping
int longCount = 0
int longCurrentIndex = highestCloseIndex
while longCount < 3 and longCurrentIndex < 100
if not isInsideBar(longCurrentIndex)
longCount += 1
longCurrentIndex += 1
// Determine the lowest low for the stop level
float longStopLevel = high * 2
for i = searchIndex to highestCloseIndex
longStopLevel := math.min(longStopLevel, getTrueLow(i))
// Apply offset
longStopLevel := longStopLevel - (offsetTicks * tickSize)
In this code snippet, the function findStopLevels() calculates the long stop level by first identifying the highest close within the lookback period and then finding a suitable support level while skipping certain conditions, such as inside bars or consecutive upward closes. Finally, the user-defined offset ( offsetTicks ) is applied to determine the stop level.
For Short Stops (sell positions): Similarly, the indicator finds the lowest closing price within the lookback period and then identifies three bars that fit the conditions for a short stop. It avoids using bars with consecutive down closes to help find a more robust resistance level. Here's a relevant code snippet:
getTrueHigh(idx) => math.max(high , close )
findStopLevels() =>
float lowestClose = close
int lowestCloseIndex = 0
for i = 0 to lookback
if close < lowestClose
lowestClose := close
lowestCloseIndex := i
// Logic to adjust based on down close skipping
int shortCount = 0
int shortCurrentIndex = lowestCloseIndex
while shortCount < 3 and shortCurrentIndex < 100
if not isInsideBar(shortCurrentIndex)
shortCount += 1
shortCurrentIndex += 1
// Determine the highest high for the stop level
float shortStopLevel = 0
for i = searchIndex to lowestCloseIndex
shortStopLevel := math.max(shortStopLevel, getTrueHigh(i))
// Apply offset
shortStopLevel := shortStopLevel + (offsetTicks * tickSize)
Here, findStopLevels() calculates the short stop level by finding the lowest closing price within the lookback period. It then determines the highest value that acts as a resistance level, excluding bars that do not fit certain criteria.
Volume Confirmation for Alert Accuracy : To further enhance the stop level accuracy, volume is used as a confirmation filter. The average volume (volAvg) is calculated over a 20-period moving average, and alerts are only generated if the volume exceeds a defined threshold (volMultiplier). This ensures that price movements are significant enough to consider as meaningful signals.
volAvg = ta.sma(volume, 20)
isVolumeConfirmed() =>
result = requireVolumeConfirmation ? volume > (volAvg * volMultiplier) : true
result
This additional logic ensures that stop level breaks or adjustments are not triggered during periods of low trading activity, thus enhancing the reliability of the generated signals.
These calculations are at the core of WillStop Pro's ability to determine dynamic stop levels that respond effectively to market movements, helping traders manage risk by placing stops at levels that make sense given historical price and volume data.
How to Identify Opportunities with WillStop Pro
WillStop Pro provides various signals that help you decide when to enter or exit a trade:
When a Stop Level is Broken: If a stop level (support for long positions or resistance for short positions) is broken, it may indicate a reversal. WillStop Pro visually plots arrows whenever a stop level is breached, making it easy for you to see where changes might occur. This feature helps traders identify momentum shifts quickly.
Support and Resistance Levels: The indicator plots support and resistance levels, which show key zones to watch for opportunities. These levels often act as psychological barriers in the market, where price action may either reverse or stall temporarily.
Dynamic State Management: The indicator shifts between long and short states based on price action, providing real-time feedback. This helps traders stick to their trading plan without second-guessing the market.
A major advantage of WillStop Pro is that it responds well to changing market conditions. By identifying when key support or resistance levels break, it allows you to adjust your strategies and react to new opportunities accordingly. Whether the market is trending strongly or staying within a range, WillStop Pro provides valuable information to help guide your trades.
Setting Up Alerts
Alerts are an important feature in trading, especially when you can’t be in front of your charts all the time. WillStop Pro has been enhanced to include flexible alert settings to help you stay on top of your trades without constantly monitoring the charts.
Enable Alerts: There is a master switch to enable or disable all alerts. This way, you can control whether you want to be notified of events at any time.
Alert Frequency: Choose between receiving alerts Once Per Bar or Once Per Bar Close . This helps you manage the frequency of alerts and decide if you need real-time updates or want confirmation after a bar closes.
Break Alerts: These alerts notify you when a stop level has been broken. This can help you catch potential reversals or trading opportunities as soon as they happen.
Strong Break Alerts: Alerts are available for strong breaks, which occur when the price breaks stop levels with confirmation based on additional price, volume, and momentum criteria. These alerts help identify significant shifts in the market.
Level Change Alerts: These alerts tell you whenever a new stop level is calculated, keeping you updated about changes in market dynamics. You can set a Minimum Level Change % to ensure that alerts are only triggered when the stop level changes significantly.
Require Volume Confirmation: You can opt to receive alerts only if the volume is above a certain threshold. This confirmation helps reduce false signals by ensuring that significant price changes are backed by increased trading activity.
Volume Multiplier: The volume multiplier allows you to set a minimum volume requirement that must be met for an alert to trigger. This ensures that alerts are triggered only when there is sufficient trading interest.
Here is a part of the updated alert logic that has been implemented in the indicator:
// Alert on break conditions
if alertsEnabled
if alertOnBreaks
if longStopBroken and isVolumeConfirmed()
alert(createAlertMessage("Support Break - Short Signal", useAdvancedStops), alertFreq)
if shortStopBroken and isVolumeConfirmed()
alert(createAlertMessage("Resistance Break - Long Signal", useAdvancedStops), alertFreq)
// Strong break alerts
if alertOnStrongBreaks
if longStopBroken and isStrongBreak(false)
alert(createAlertMessage("Strong Support Break - Short Signal", useAdvancedStops), alertFreq)
if shortStopBroken and isStrongBreak(true)
alert(createAlertMessage("Strong Resistance Break - Long Signal", useAdvancedStops), alertFreq)
// Level change alerts
if alertOnLevelChanges and isSignificantChange() and isVolumeConfirmed()
alert(createAlertMessage("Significant Level Change", useAdvancedStops), alertFreq)
Setting alerts allows you to react to market changes without having to watch the charts constantly. Alerts are particularly helpful if you have other responsibilities and can’t be actively monitoring your trades all day.
Understanding the Table Display
The WillStop Pro indicator provides a status table that gives an overview of the current market state. Here’s what the table shows:
Indicator Status: The table indicates whether the indicator is in a LONG or SHORT state. This helps you quickly understand the market trend.
Stop Level: The active stop level is shown, whether it is acting as support (long) or resistance (short). This is important for knowing where to set your protective stops.
Mode: The table also displays whether the advanced calculation mode is being used. This keeps you informed about how stop levels are being calculated and why they are positioned where they are.
Empowering Messages: The table also includes motivational messages that rotate periodically, such as 'Trade with Clarity, Stop with Precision' and 'Let Winners Run, Cut Losses Short.' These messages are designed to keep you focused, motivated, and disciplined during your trading journey.
The table is simple and easy to follow, helping you maintain discipline in your trading plan. By having all the essential information in one place, the table reduces the need to make quick, emotional decisions and promotes more thoughtful analysis.
Tips for Using WillStop Pro Effectively
Here are some practical ways to make the most of the WillStop Pro indicator:
Start with Default Settings: If you’re new to the indicator, start with the default settings. This will give you an idea of how stop levels are determined and how they adjust to different markets.
Experiment with Advanced Settings: Once you are comfortable, try using the advanced stop settings to see how they refine the stop levels. This can be useful in certain market conditions to improve accuracy.
Use Alerts to Stay Updated: Set up alerts for when a stop level is broken or when new levels are calculated. This helps you take action without constantly watching the chart. Swing traders may find alerts especially helpful for monitoring longer-term moves.
Monitor the Status Table: Keep an eye on the status table to understand the current market condition. Whether the indicator is in a LONG or SHORT state can help you make more informed decisions.
Focus on Risk Management: WillStop Pro is designed to help you manage risk by dynamically adjusting stop levels. Make sure you are using these levels to protect your trades, especially during strong trends or volatile periods.
Acknowledging Larry Williams' Influence
WillStop Pro is inspired by the work of Larry Williams, who described the approach as one of his best trading techniques. His method aims to ride major market trends while reducing the risk of giving back gains during corrections. WillStop Pro builds upon this approach, adding features like advanced stop settings and visual alerts that make it easier to apply in modern markets.
By using WillStop Pro, you are essentially leveraging a well-established trading strategy with additional tools that help improve its effectiveness. The indicator is designed to provide a reliable way to manage trades, stay on top of market conditions, and reduce emotional decision-making.
Conclusion: Why WillStop Pro is Great for Beginners and Advanced Users
The WillStop Pro is a powerful yet easy-to-use tool that helps traders ride trends while managing risk during market corrections. It can be used both for entering and exiting trades, and its visual features make it accessible for those who are new to trading, while the underlying logic appeals to advanced users seeking greater control and understanding.
WillStop Pro is more than just a tool for setting stops. It is a comprehensive solution for managing trades, with features like dynamic stop levels, customizable alerts, and an easy-to-understand status table. This combination of simplicity and advanced features makes it suitable for beginners as well as more experienced traders.
We hope this guide helps you get started with WillStop Pro and improves your trading confidence. Remember to start with the basics, explore the advanced features, and set alerts to stay informed without getting overwhelmed. Whether you’re just beginning or want to simplify your strategy, WillStop Pro is a valuable tool to have in your trading arsenal.
Trading can be challenging, but the right tools make it more manageable. WillStop Pro helps you keep track of market movements, identify opportunities, and manage risk effectively. Give it a try and see how it can improve your trading decisions and help you navigate the markets more efficiently.
By incorporating WillStop Pro into your strategy, you are following a systematic approach that has been refined over time. It’s designed to help you make sense of the markets, plan your trades, and manage your risks with greater clarity and confidence.
Note: Always practice proper risk management and thoroughly test the indicator to ensure it aligns with your trading strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion by Kevin Davey Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion Strategy Description
The Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion Strategy is a popular trading approach based on the concept of volatility and market overreaction. The strategy leverages Bollinger Bands, which consist of an upper and lower band plotted around a central moving average, typically using standard deviations to measure volatility. When the price moves beyond these bands, it signals potential overbought or oversold conditions, and the strategy seeks to exploit a reversion back to the mean (the central band).
Strategy Components:
1. Bollinger Bands:
The bands are calculated using a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a multiple (usually 2.0) of the standard deviation of the asset’s price over the same period. The upper band represents the SMA plus two standard deviations, while the lower band is the SMA minus two standard deviations. The distance between the bands increases with higher volatility and decreases with lower volatility.
2. Mean Reversion:
Mean reversion theory suggests that, over time, prices tend to move back toward their historical average. In this strategy, a buy signal is triggered when the price falls below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a potential oversold condition. Conversely, the position is closed when the price rises back above the upper Bollinger Band, signaling an overbought condition.
Entry and Exit Logic:
Buy Condition: The strategy enters a long position when the price closes below the lower Bollinger Band, anticipating a mean reversion to the central band (SMA).
Sell Condition: The long position is exited when the price closes above the upper Bollinger Band, implying that the market is likely overbought and a reversal could occur.
This approach uses mean reversion principles, aiming to capitalize on short-term price extremes and volatility compression, often seen in sideways or non-trending markets. Scientific studies have shown that mean reversion strategies, particularly those based on volatility indicators like Bollinger Bands, can be effective in capturing small but frequent price reversals  .
Scientific Basis for Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger Bands, developed by John Bollinger, are widely regarded in both academic literature and practical trading as an essential tool for volatility analysis and mean reversion strategies. Research has shown that Bollinger Bands effectively identify relative price highs and lows, and can be used to forecast price volatility and detect potential breakouts . Studies in financial markets, such as those by Fernández-Rodríguez et al. (2003), highlight the efficacy of Bollinger Bands in detecting overbought or oversold conditions in various assets .
Who is Kevin Davey?
Kevin Davey is an award-winning algorithmic trader and highly regarded expert in developing and optimizing systematic trading strategies. With over 25 years of experience, Davey gained significant recognition after winning the prestigious World Cup Trading Championships multiple times, where he achieved triple-digit returns with minimal drawdown. His success has made him a key figure in algorithmic trading education, with a focus on disciplined and rule-based trading systems.
Adaptive Fibonacci Trend Ribbon[FibonacciFlux]Adaptive Fibonacci Trend Ribbon (FibonacciFlux)
Overview
The Adaptive Fibonacci Trend Ribbon is a versatile technical analysis tool designed for traders who want to leverage the power of multiple moving averages while integrating Fibonacci numbers. This indicator provides a dynamic visual representation of market trends, enhancing decision-making processes in trading.
Key Features
1. Multi-Moving Averages
- The indicator calculates eight different moving averages based on user-defined periods, including Fibonacci numbers such as 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, and 144.
- Traders can choose from various moving average types, including EMA, HMA, WMA, VWMA, ALMA, SMA, RMA, and TMA , allowing for tailored analysis based on market conditions.
2. Trend Detection
- Each moving average is color-coded based on its trend direction, with green indicating an upward trend and red indicating a downward trend.
- This visual clarity helps traders quickly assess market sentiment and make informed decisions.
3. Fill Areas for Enhanced Insight
- The indicator features fill areas between the moving averages, which dynamically change color according to their relative positions.
- This provides a clear visual cue of trend strength and potential reversal points, allowing traders to identify key areas of interest.
4. Customizable Inputs
- Users can easily adjust the source data, moving average lengths, and ALMA parameters (offset and sigma) to fit their trading strategies.
- This flexibility ensures that traders can adapt the tool to various market conditions and personal preferences.
Insights and Applications
1. Fibonacci Integration
- By incorporating Fibonacci numbers into the moving average periods, this indicator allows traders to align their strategies with key levels of support and resistance.
- This can enhance the accuracy of entry and exit points, particularly in trending markets.
2. Trend Continuation and Reversal Analysis
- The adaptive nature of the moving averages provides insights into potential trend continuations or reversals.
- Traders can use the indicator to identify when to enter or exit positions based on the interaction between the moving averages.
3. Visual Clarity for Quick Decisions
- The color-coded moving averages and fill areas offer immediate visual feedback on market conditions, helping traders react swiftly to changing dynamics.
- This is especially useful in fast-moving markets where timely decisions are critical.
Conclusion
The Adaptive Fibonacci Trend Ribbon is an essential tool for traders looking to enhance their technical analysis capabilities. By combining multiple moving averages with Fibonacci integration and dynamic visual cues, this indicator offers a robust framework for understanding market trends. Its flexibility and clarity make it an invaluable asset for both novice and experienced traders alike.
Open Source Contribution
This indicator is open source, inviting contributions and improvements from the trading community. Feel free to fork, enhance, and share your insights with the world, helping to foster a collaborative environment for traders everywhere.
ATR PercentageThe ATR is a great indicator, but for me, it does not define the volatility of an asset I am looking at well enough. So I've adjusted it to be displayed as the usual ATR and a percentage of the closing prince (which to me tells a better story). I find this useful if I am looking through many assets and have to create a quick picture of volatility.
Indicator Definition: The script starts by defining an indicator named "ATR Percentage" that will be displayed in a separate pane (not overlayed on the price chart).
Input for ATR Period: The user can set the period for calculating the ATR through an input field.
ATR Calculation: The ta.atr function calculates the Average True Range based on the specified period.
ATR Percentage Calculation: The ATR value is converted to a percentage of the current closing price using (atrValue / close) * 100.
Plotting:
The script plots both the ATR value and its percentage on the chart.
A horizontal line at zero is added for reference.
Label Display: An optional label displays the current ATR percentage at every 10th bar to avoid cluttering the chart.
Background Color: A light blue background is added to visually separate the ATR indicator from other indicators.
MTF EHMA & HMA Insights [FibonacciFlux]MTF EHMA & HMA Insights
Overview
The Multi-Timeframe EHMA, HMA, and Midline with Fill script is a powerful technical analysis tool designed for traders seeking to enhance their market insights and decision-making processes. By integrating two advanced moving averages—Exponential Hull Moving Average (EHMA) and Hull Moving Average (HMA)—along with a dynamic midline, this indicator provides a comprehensive view of market trends across multiple timeframes.
Key Features
1. Dual Moving Averages
- Exponential Hull Moving Average (EHMA) :
- Offers a rapid response to price changes, making it particularly useful for identifying short-term trends.
- Utilizes a unique calculation method that reduces lag, allowing traders to react quickly to market movements.
- Hull Moving Average (HMA) :
- Known for its smoothness and ability to filter out noise, the HMA presents a clear picture of the underlying trend.
- The HMA is specifically designed to achieve a balance between responsiveness and smoothness, enabling traders to make informed decisions.
2. Midline Calculation
- Dynamic Midline (m) :
- The midline is calculated as the average of EHMA and HMA, providing a neutral reference point for evaluating price movements.
- It visually represents market sentiment; a rising midline suggests bullish conditions, while a declining midline indicates bearish trends.
3. Visual Components
- Fill Areas :
- Color-coded fills between the EHMA and HMA enhance visual clarity by indicating the relative position of these moving averages.
- The fill color dynamically changes based on the relationship between the two averages (green for EHMA below HMA and red for EHMA above HMA), allowing traders to quickly assess market conditions.
4. Signal Generation and Alerts
- Buy/Sell Signals :
- The indicator generates buy signals when the midline crosses above its previous value, indicating a potential upward trend.
- Conversely, sell signals are triggered when the midline crosses below its previous value, suggesting a possible downward movement.
- Alert Conditions :
- Built-in alerts notify traders in real-time when significant changes occur, allowing them to act swiftly on potential trading opportunities.
- Customizable alert messages ensure traders receive relevant information tailored to their strategies.
Technical Details
Input Parameters
- Timeframe Settings :
- Traders can customize the timeframes for both EHMA and HMA, enabling them to adapt the indicator to different trading styles and market conditions.
- Length Settings :
- Adjustable lengths for both moving averages impact their sensitivity, allowing traders to optimize their performance based on volatility and market dynamics.
Plotting and Visualization
- Plotting :
- The script plots the EHMA, HMA, and midline directly on the chart for easy visualization.
- Signal labels (BUY and SELL) are displayed prominently, helping traders to identify potential entry and exit points without ambiguity.
Benefits
1. Clarity and Insight
- The combination of EHMA, HMA, and midline provides a clear and concise visual representation of market trends, aiding traders in making informed decisions.
2. Flexibility
- Customizable parameters allow traders to tailor the indicator to their specific needs, making it suitable for various market conditions and trading styles.
3. Efficiency
- Real-time alerts and visual signals minimize response times, enabling traders to capitalize on opportunities as they arise.
4. Enhanced Trading Conditions
- When utilizing the Fibonacci number 144 on a daily chart, the indicator facilitates optimal trading conditions:
- "The entry was made before the bubble began, using 144 as the Fibonacci variable."
- "The exit occurred right before the bubble burst, or alternatively, a short position was initiated."
- "When the next bubble started, a long entry was made again."
- "Despite some lag, the position was exited and a long entry was made."
- "The exit or short entry took place at the second double top peak."
- "A short position was already established before the double top formation occurred."
- On a 4-hour chart, traders can effectively set stop losses at HMA levels, achieving a risk-reward ratio between 4 and 8.
- Additionally, analyzing the 15-minute chart with a multi-timeframe approach allows for more precise entry points.
Conclusion
The Multi-Timeframe EHMA, HMA, and Midline with Fill script is a robust tool for traders looking to enhance their technical analysis capabilities. By combining multiple moving averages with a dynamic midline and alert system, this indicator offers a comprehensive approach to understanding market trends. Its flexibility, clarity, and efficiency make it an invaluable asset for both novice and experienced traders alike.
Important Note
As with any trading tool, it is crucial to conduct thorough analysis and risk management when using this indicator. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and traders should always be prepared for potential market fluctuations.
Weierstrass Function (Fractal Cycles)THE WEIERSTRASS FUNCTION
f(x) = ∑(n=0)^∞ a^n * cos(b^n * π * x)
The Weierstrass Function is the sum of an infinite series of cosine functions, each with increasing frequency and decreasing amplitude. This creates powerful multi-scale oscillations within the range ⬍(-2;+2), resembling a system of self-repetitive patterns. You can zoom into any part of the output and observe similar proportions, mimicking the hidden order behind the irregularity and unpredictability of financial markets.
IT DOESN’T RELY ON ANY MARKET DATA, AS THE OUTPUT IS BASED PURELY ON A MATHEMATICAL FORMULA!
This script does not provide direct buy or sell signals and should be used as a tool for analyzing the market behavior through fractal geometry. The function is often used to model complex, chaotic systems, including natural phenomena and financial markets.
APPLICATIONS:
Timing Aspect: Identifies the phases of market cycles, helping to keep awareness of frequency of turning points
Price-Modeling features: The Amplitude, frequency, and scaling settings allow the indicator to simulate the trends and oscillations. Its nowhere-differentiable nature aligns with the market's inherent uncertainty. The fractured oscillations resemble sharp jumps, noise, and dips found in volatile markets.
SETTINGS
Amplitude Factor (a): Controls the size of each wave. A higher value makes the waves larger.
Frequency Factor (b): Determines how fast the waves oscillate. A higher value creates more frequent waves.
Ability to Invert the output: Just like any cosine function it starts its journey with a decline, which is not distinctive to the behavior of most assets. The default setting is in "inverted mode".
Scale Factor: Adjusts the speed at which the oscillations grow over time.
Number of Terms (n_terms): Increases the number of waves. More terms add complexity to the pattern.
Hinton Map█ HINTON MAP
This script displays a Hinton Map visualization of market data for user-defined tickers and timeframes. It uses color gradients to represent the magnitude and direction of price change, RSI, and a combination of both.
This is one example. You can modify and try other values as you wish, but do keep the incoming values between -1 and 1.
In the Example Usage:
Users can input up to 5 symbols and 5 timeframes. For each ticker/timeframe combination:
The box size represents the relative magnitude of the 2-bar percentage change.
The box fill color represents the direction and magnitude of the 2-bar percentage change.
The box border color and thickness represent the RSI deviation from 50.
The inner box color represents a combination of price change magnitude and RSI deviation from 50.
Hovering over each box displays a tooltip with the ticker, timeframe, percentage change, and RSI.
Inputs:
• Unit Size (bars):
The size of each Hinton unit in bars.
Type: int
Default Value: 10
• Border Width:
The base width of the inner box border.
Type: int
Default Value: 3
• Negative Hue (0-360):
The hue value for negative price changes (0-360).
Type: float
Default Value: 100
• Positive Hue (0-360):
The hue value for positive price changes (0-360).
Type: float
Default Value: 180
• Ticker 1-5:
The tickers to display on the Hinton map.
Type: string
Default Value: AAPL
• Timeframes (comma separated):
The timeframes to display on the Hinton map (comma-separated).
Type: string
Default Value: 1, 5, 60, 1D, 1W
(Fun Note: My Home town is named `Hinton`)
Candle AnalysisImportant Setup Note
Optimize Your Viewing Experience
To ensure the Candle Analysis Indicator displays correctly and to prevent any default chart colors from interfering with the indicator's visuals, please adjust your chart settings:
Right-Click on the Chart and select "Settings".
Navigate to the "Symbol" tab.
Set transparent default candle colors:
- Body
-Borders
- Wick
By customizing these settings, you'll experience the full visual benefits of the indicator without any overlapping colors or distractions.
Elevate your trading strategy with the Candle Analysis Indicator—a powerful tool designed to give you a focused view of the market exactly when you need it. Whether you're honing in on specific historical periods or testing new strategies, this indicator provides the clarity and control you've been looking for.
Key Features:
🔹 Custom Date Range Selection
Tailored Analysis: Choose your own start and end dates to focus on the market periods that matter most to you.
Historical Insights: Dive deep into past market movements to uncover hidden trends and patterns.
🔹 Dynamic Backtesting Simulation
Interactive Playback: Enable backtesting to simulate how the market unfolded over time.
Strategy Testing: Watch candles appear at your chosen interval, allowing you to test and refine your trading strategies in real-time scenarios.
🔹 Enhanced Visual Clarity
Focused Visualization: Only candles within your specified date range are highlighted, eliminating distractions from irrelevant data.
Distinct Candle Styling: Bullish and bearish candles are displayed with unique colors and transparency, making it easy to spot market sentiment at a glance.
🔹 User-Friendly Interface
Easy Setup: Simple input options mean you can configure the indicator quickly without any technical hassle.
Versatile Application: Compatible with various timeframes—whether you're trading intraday, daily, or weekly.
Multi Fibonacci Supertrend with Signals【FIbonacciFlux】Multi Fibonacci Supertrend with Signals (MFSS)
Overview
The Multi Fibonacci Supertrend with Signals (MFSS) is an advanced technical analysis tool that combines multiple Supertrend indicators using Fibonacci ratios to identify trend directions and potential trading opportunities.
Key Features
1. Fibonacci-Based Supertrend Levels
* Factor 1 (Weak) : 0.618 - The golden ratio
* Factor 2 (Medium) : 1.618 - The Fibonacci ratio
* Factor 3 (Strong) : 2.618 - The extension ratio
2. Visual Components
* Multi-layered Trend Lines
* Different line weights for easy identification
* Progressive transparency from Factor 1 to Factor 3
* Color-coded trend directions (Green for bullish, Red for bearish)
* Dynamic Fill Areas
* Gradient fills between price and trend lines
* Visual representation of trend strength
* Automatic color adjustment based on trend direction
* Signal Indicators
* Clear BUY/SELL labels on chart
* Position-adaptive signal placement
* High-visibility color scheme
3. Signal Generation Logic
The system generates signals based on two key conditions:
* Primary Condition :
* BUY : Price crossunder Supertrend2 (Factor 1.618)
* SELL : Price crossover Supertrend2 (Factor 1.618)
* Confirmation Filter :
* Signals only trigger when Supertrend3 confirms the trend direction
* Reduces false signals in volatile markets
Technical Details
Input Parameters
* ATR Period : 10 (default)
* Customizable for different market conditions
* Affects sensitivity of all Supertrend levels
* Factor Settings :
* All factors are customizable
* Default values based on Fibonacci sequence
* Minimum value: 0.01
* Step size: 0.01
Alert System
* Built-in alert conditions
* Customizable alert messages
* Real-time notification support
Use Cases
* Trend Trading
* Identify strong trend directions
* Filter out weak signals
* Confirm trend continuations
* Risk Management
* Multiple trend levels for stop-loss placement
* Clear entry and exit signals
* Trend strength visualization
* Market Analysis
* Multi-timeframe analysis capability
* Trend strength assessment
* Market structure identification
Benefits
* Reliability
* Based on proven Supertrend algorithm
* Enhanced with Fibonacci mathematics
* Multiple confirmation levels
* Clarity
* Clear visual signals
* Easy-to-interpret interface
* Reduced noise in signal generation
* Flexibility
* Customizable parameters
* Adaptable to different markets
* Suitable for various trading styles
Performance Considerations
* Optimized code structure
* Efficient calculation methods
* Minimal resource usage
Installation and Usage
Setup
* Add indicator to chart
* Adjust parameters if needed
* Enable alerts as required
Best Practices
* Use with other confirmation tools
* Adjust factors based on market volatility
* Consider timeframe appropriateness
Backtesting Results and Strategy Performance
This indicator is specifically designed for pullback trading with optimized risk-reward ratios in trend-following strategies. Below are the detailed backtesting results from our proprietary strategy implementation:
BTCUSDT Performance (Binance)
* Test Period: Approximately 7 years
* Risk-Reward Ratio: 2:1
* Take Profit: 8%
* Stop Loss: 4%
Key Metrics (BTCUSDT):
* Net Profit: +2,579%
* Total Trades: 551
* Win Rate: 44.8%
* Profit Factor: 1.278
* Maximum Drawdown: 42.86%
ETHUSD Performance (Binance)
* Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.33:1
* Take Profit: 13%
* Stop Loss: 3%
Key Metrics (ETHUSD):
* Net Profit: +8,563%
* Total Trades: 581
* Win Rate: 32%
* Profit Factor: 1.32
* Maximum Drawdown: 55%
Strategy Highlights:
* Optimized for pullback trading in strong trends
* Focus on high risk-reward ratios
* Proven effectiveness in major cryptocurrency pairs
* Consistent performance across different market conditions
* Robust profit factor despite moderate win rates
Note: These results are from our proprietary strategy implementation and should be used as reference only. Individual results may vary based on market conditions and implementation.
Important Considerations:
* The strategy demonstrates strong profitability despite lower win rates, emphasizing the importance of proper risk-reward ratios
* Higher drawdowns are compensated by significant overall returns
* The system shows adaptability across different cryptocurrencies with consistent profit factors
* Results suggest optimal performance in volatile crypto markets
Real Trading Examples
BTCUSDT 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Example of pullback strategy implementation on Bitcoin, showing clear trend definition and entry points
ETHUSDT 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ethereum chart demonstrating effective signal generation during strong trends
BTCUSDT Detailed Signal Example (15-Minute Scalping)
Close-up view of signal generation and trend confirmation process on 15-minute timeframe, demonstrating the indicator's effectiveness for scalping operations
Chart Analysis Notes:
* Green and red zones clearly indicate trend direction
* Multiple timeframe confirmation visible through different Supertrend levels
* Clear entry signals during pullbacks in established trends
* Precise stop-loss placement opportunities below support levels
Implementation Guidelines:
* Wait for main trend confirmation from Factor 3 (2.618)
* Enter trades on pullbacks to Factor 2 (1.618)
* Use Factor 1 (0.618) for fine-tuning entry points
* Place stops below the relevant Supertrend level
Footnotes:
* Charts provided are from Binance exchange, using both 4-hour and 15-minute timeframes
* Trading view screenshots captured during actual market conditions
* Indicators shown: Multi Fibonacci Supertrend with all three factors
* Time period: Recent market activity showing various market conditions
Important Notice:
These charts are for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own analysis and risk management.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct proper risk management and due diligence.
License
Open source under MIT License
Author's Note
Contributions and suggestions for improvement are welcome. Please feel free to fork and enhance.
VWAP2 --ClaireIndicator Release Notes
I am excited to introduce a powerful multi-timeframe Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) indicator. This tool helps traders analyze market trends and identify key support and resistance levels across various timeframes. Below are the main features and usage guidelines for this indicator:
Key Features
Open Price for Each Timeframe
The "Open" option represents the opening price for each specific timeframe, such as daily, weekly, monthly, etc.
Previous vs. Current Levels
Levels prefixed with 'P' (e.g., pwval) are calculated for the previous period, while those without 'P' (e.g., wval) represent the current period. For instance, pwval is the VWAP-calculated Value Area Low (VAL) for the previous week, whereas wval applies to the current week.
VWAP Calculation Standards
VWAP can be calculated using a standard deviation (S) or a percentage (P). The "Multiplier" indicates how many standard deviations are applied, with a default setting of S (standard deviation) and a multiplier of 1.
Data Source Default
The default data source for calculations is hlc3, which is the average of high, low, and close prices. This can be adjusted if needed.
Merge Function
The Merge option visually groups data that is closely aligned within a specified range, allowing for a clearer representation of critical price levels.
Viewing Recommendations
When analyzing higher dimensions, it is recommended to enable Quarter (Q) and Year (Y) settings to identify important price levels near the current price. For detailed attention, you can disable levels that are significantly distant from the current price.
Data Limitations
Free TradingView accounts can pull data from up to 20,000 candles. This means the indicator is most accurate and comprehensive on 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes, given these data constraints.
Usage Guidelines
Trend Analysis: Utilize VWAP and bands across different timeframes to identify market trend continuations or reversals.
Support and Resistance Identification: Use the calculated upper and lower bands as potential support or resistance levels to optimize entry and exit points in your trading.
Combined Application: It is recommended to use this indicator alongside other technical analysis tools to improve the accuracy of your analysis and the reliability of your trading decisions.
I believe this versatile and highly customizable VWAP indicator will become an essential part of your trading toolkit, helping you to better understand market dynamics and make more precise trading decisions.
Dynamic Score Supertrend [QuantAlgo]Dynamic Score Supertrend 📈🚀
The Dynamic Score Supertrend by QuantAlgo introduces a sophisticated trend-following tool that combines the well-known Supertrend indicator with an innovative dynamic trend scoring technique . By tracking market momentum through a scoring system that evaluates price behavior over a customizable window, this indicator adapts to changing market conditions. The result is a clearer, more adaptive tool that helps traders and investors detect and capitalize on trend shifts with greater precision.
💫 Conceptual Foundation and Innovation
At the core of the Dynamic Score Supertrend is the dynamic trend score system , which measures price movements relative to the Supertrend’s upper and lower bands. This scoring technique adds a layer of trend validation, assessing the strength of price trends over time. Unlike traditional Supertrend indicators that rely solely on ATR calculations, this system incorporates a scoring mechanism that provides more insight into trend direction, allowing traders and investors to navigate both trending and choppy markets with greater confidence.
✨ Technical Composition and Calculation
The Dynamic Score Supertrend utilizes the Average True Range (ATR) to calculate the upper and lower Supertrend bands. The dynamic trend scoring technique then compares the price to these bands over a customizable window, generating a trend score that reflects the current market direction.
When the score exceeds the uptrend or downtrend thresholds, it signals a possible shift in market direction. By adjusting the ATR settings and window length, the indicator becomes more adaptable to different market conditions, from steady trends to periods of higher volatility. This customization allows users to refine the Supertrend’s sensitivity and responsiveness based on their trading or investing style.
📈 Features and Practical Applications
Customizable ATR Settings: Adjust the ATR length and multiplier to control the sensitivity of the Supertrend bands. This allows the indicator to smooth out noise or react more quickly to price shifts, depending on market conditions.
Window Length for Dynamic Scoring: Modify the window length to adjust how many data points the scoring system considers, allowing you to tailor the indicator’s responsiveness to short-term or long-term trends.
Uptrend/Downtrend Thresholds: Set thresholds for identifying trend signals. Increase these thresholds for more reliable signals in choppy markets, or lower them for more aggressive entry points in trending markets.
Bar and Background Coloring: Visual cues such as bar coloring and background fills highlight the direction of the current trend, making it easier to spot potential reversals and trend shifts.
Trend Confirmation: The dynamic trend score system provides a clearer confirmation of trend strength, helping you identify strong, sustained movements while filtering out false signals.
⚡️ How to Use
✅ Add the Indicator: Add the Dynamic Score Supertrend to your favourites, then apply it to your chart. Adjust the ATR length, multiplier, and dynamic score settings to suit your trading or investing strategy.
👀 Monitor Trend Shifts: Track price movements relative to the Supertrend bands and use the dynamic trend score to confirm the strength of a trend. Bar and background colors make it easy to visualize key trend shifts.
🔔 Set Alerts: Configure alerts when the dynamic trend score crosses key thresholds, so you can act on significant trend changes without constantly monitoring the charts.
🌟 Summary and Usage Tips
The Dynamic Score Supertrend by QuantAlgo is a robust trend-following tool that combines the power of the Supertrend with an advanced dynamic scoring system. This approach provides more adaptable and reliable trend signals, helping traders and investors make informed decisions in trending markets. The customizable ATR settings and scoring thresholds make it versatile across various market conditions, allowing you to fine-tune the indicator for both short-term momentum and long-term trend following. To maximize its effectiveness, adjust the settings based on current market volatility and use the visual cues to confirm trend shifts. The Dynamic Score Supertrend offers a refined, probabilistic approach to trading and investing, making it a valuable addition to your toolkit.
Market Bias IndicatorOverview
This Pine Script™ code generates a "Market Sentiment Dashboard" on TradingView, providing a visual summary of market sentiment across multiple timeframes. This tool aids traders in making informed decisions by displaying real-time sentiment analysis based on Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).
Key Features
Panel Positioning:
Custom Placement: Traders can position the dashboard at the top, middle, or bottom of the chart and align it to the left, centre, or right, ensuring optimal integration with other chart elements.
Customizable Colours:
Sentiment Colours: Users can define colours for bullish, bearish, and neutral market conditions, enhancing the dashboard's readability.
Text Colour: Customizable text colour ensures clarity against various background colours.
Label Size:
Scalable Labels: Adjustable label sizes (from very small to very large) ensure readability across different screen sizes and resolutions.
Market Sentiment Calculation:
EMA-Based Sentiment: The dashboard calculates sentiment using a 9-period EMA. If the EMA is higher than two bars ago, the sentiment is bullish; if lower, it's bearish; otherwise, it's neutral.
Multiple Timeframes: Sentiment is calculated for several timeframes: 30 minute, 1 hour, 4 hour, 6 hour, 8 hour, 12 hour, 1 day, and 1 week. This broad analysis provides a comprehensive view of market conditions.
Dynamic Table:
Structured Display: The dashboard uses a table to organize and display sentiment data clearly.
Real-Time Updates: The table updates in real-time, providing traders with up-to-date market information.
How It Works
EMA Calculation: The script requests EMA(9) values for each specified timeframe and compares the current EMA with the EMA from two bars ago to determine market sentiment.
Colour Coding: Depending on the sentiment (Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral), the corresponding cell in the table is color-coded using predefined colours.
Table Display: The table displays the timeframe and corresponding sentiment, allowing traders to quickly assess market trends.
Benefits to Traders
Quick Assessment: Traders can quickly evaluate market sentiment across multiple timeframes without switching charts or manually calculating indicators.
Enhanced Visualization: The color-coded sentiment display makes it easy to identify trends at a glance.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Provides a broad view of short-term and long-term market trends, helping traders confirm trends and avoid false signals.
This dashboard enhances the overall trading experience by providing a comprehensive, customizable, and easy-to-read summary of market sentiment.
Usage Instructions
Add the Script to Your Chart: Apply the "Market Sentiment Dashboard" indicator to your TradingView chart.
Customize Settings: Adjust the panel position, colours, and label sizes to fit your preferences.
Interpret Sentiment: Use the color-coded table to quickly understand the market sentiment across different timeframes and make informed trading decisions.
Advanced Multi-Seasonality StrategyThe Multi-Seasonality Strategy is a trading system based on seasonal market patterns. Seasonality refers to recurring market trends driven by predictable calendar-based events. These patterns emerge due to economic cycles, corporate activities (e.g., earnings reports), and investor behavior around specific times of the year. Studies have shown that such effects can influence asset prices over defined periods, leading to opportunities for traders who exploit these patterns (Hirshleifer, 2001; Bouman & Jacobsen, 2002).
How the Strategy Works:
The strategy allows the user to define four distinct periods within a calendar year. For each period, the trader selects:
Entry Date (Month and Day): The date to enter the trade.
Holding Period: The number of trading days to remain in the trade after the entry.
Trade Direction: Whether to take a long or short position during that period.
The system is designed with flexibility, enabling the user to activate or deactivate each of the four periods. The idea is to take advantage of seasonal patterns, such as buying during historically strong periods and selling during weaker ones. A well-known example is the "Sell in May and Go Away" phenomenon, which suggests that stock returns are higher from November to April and weaker from May to October (Bouman & Jacobsen, 2002).
Seasonality in Financial Markets:
Seasonal effects have been documented across different asset classes and markets:
Equities: Stock markets tend to exhibit higher returns during certain months, such as the "January effect," where prices rise after year-end tax-loss selling (Haugen & Lakonishok, 1987).
Commodities: Agricultural commodities often follow seasonal planting and harvesting cycles, which impact supply and demand patterns (Fama & French, 1987).
Forex: Currency pairs may show strength or weakness during specific quarters based on macroeconomic factors, such as fiscal year-end flows or central bank policy decisions.
Scientific Basis:
Research shows that market anomalies like seasonality are linked to behavioral biases and institutional practices. For example, investors may respond to tax incentives at the end of the year, and companies may engage in window dressing (Haugen & Lakonishok, 1987). Additionally, macroeconomic factors, such as monetary policy shifts and holiday trading volumes, can also contribute to predictable seasonal trends (Bouman & Jacobsen, 2002).
Risks of Seasonal Trading:
While the strategy seeks to exploit predictable patterns, there are inherent risks:
Market Changes: Seasonal effects observed in the past may weaken or disappear as market conditions evolve. Increased algorithmic trading, globalization, and policy changes can reduce the reliability of historical patterns (Lo, 2004).
Overfitting: One of the risks in seasonal trading is overfitting the strategy to historical data. A pattern that worked in the past may not necessarily work in the future, especially if it was based on random chance or external factors that no longer apply (Sullivan, Timmermann, & White, 1999).
Liquidity and Volatility: Trading during specific periods may expose the trader to low liquidity, especially around holidays or earnings seasons, leading to slippage and larger-than-expected price swings.
Economic and Geopolitical Shocks: External events such as pandemics, wars, or political instability can disrupt seasonal patterns, leading to unexpected market behavior.
Conclusion:
The Multi-Seasonality Strategy capitalizes on the predictable nature of certain calendar-based patterns in financial markets. By entering and exiting trades based on well-established seasonal effects, traders can potentially capture short-term profits. However, caution is necessary, as market dynamics can change, and seasonal patterns are not guaranteed to persist. Rigorous backtesting, combined with risk management practices, is essential to successfully implementing this strategy.
References:
Bouman, S., & Jacobsen, B. (2002). The Halloween Indicator, "Sell in May and Go Away": Another Puzzle. American Economic Review, 92(5), 1618-1635.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1987). Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage. Journal of Business, 60(1), 55-73.
Haugen, R. A., & Lakonishok, J. (1987). The Incredible January Effect: The Stock Market's Unsolved Mystery. Dow Jones-Irwin.
Hirshleifer, D. (2001). Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing. Journal of Finance, 56(4), 1533-1597.
Lo, A. W. (2004). The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Market Efficiency from an Evolutionary Perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 30(5), 15-29.
Sullivan, R., Timmermann, A., & White, H. (1999). Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap. Journal of Finance, 54(5), 1647-1691.
This strategy harnesses the power of seasonality but requires careful consideration of the risks and potential changes in market behavior over time.
Confluence StrategyOverview of Confluence Strategy
The Confluence Strategy in trading refers to the combination of multiple technical indicators, support/resistance levels, and chart patterns to identify high-probability trading opportunities. The idea is that when several indicators agree on a price movement, the likelihood of that movement being successful increases.
Key Components
Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA): Commonly used to determine the trend direction. Look for crossovers (e.g., the 50-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA).
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Helps identify overbought or oversold conditions. A reading above 70 may indicate overbought conditions, while below 30 suggests oversold.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Useful for spotting changes in momentum. Look for MACD crossovers and divergence from price.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Identify key levels where price has historically reversed. These can be drawn from previous highs/lows, Fibonacci retracement levels, or psychological price levels.
Chart Patterns:
Patterns like head and shoulders, double tops/bottoms, or flags can indicate potential reversals or continuations in price.
Strategy Implementation
Set Up Your Chart:
Add the desired indicators (e.g., MA, RSI, MACD) to your TradingView chart.
Mark significant support and resistance levels.
Identify Confluence Points:
Look for situations where multiple indicators align. For instance, if the price is near a support level, the RSI is below 30, and the MACD shows bullish divergence, this may signal a buying opportunity.
Entry and Exit Points:
Entry: Place a trade when your confluence conditions are met. Use limit orders for better prices.
Exit: Set profit targets based on resistance levels or use trailing stops. Consider the risk-reward ratio to ensure your trades are favorable.
Risk Management:
Always implement stop-loss orders to protect against unexpected market moves. Position size should reflect your risk tolerance.
Example of a Confluence Trade
Setup:
Price approaches a strong support level.
RSI shows oversold conditions (below 30).
The 50-day MA is about to cross above the 200-day MA (bullish crossover).
Action:
Enter a long position as the conditions align.
Set a stop loss just below the support level and a take profit at the next resistance level.
Conclusion
The Confluence Strategy can significantly enhance trading accuracy by ensuring that multiple indicators support a trade decision. Traders on TradingView can customize their indicators and charts to fit their personal trading styles, making it a flexible approach to technical analysis.
KaracaticaKaracatica Indicator - Dynamic Trend Following.
The Karacatica Indicator is designed for traders looking for a comprehensive approach to trend trading by combining directional movements and Average True Range (ATR).
Key Features: ATR-Based Trend Detection: The indicator uses Average True Range (ATR) to measure market volatility and integrates with price action to capture strong trend movements.
Directional Indicators (DI's): Calculates DI's (Positive Directional Index Di+ and Negative Directional Index Di-) to compare buying and selling pressure. This allows for more accurate trend identification, highlighting when buyers or sellers dominate.
Signal Generation: Buy Signal: Generated when price action is bullish (close is above the previous period's close) and DI+ exceeds DI-, indicating that buyers are in control.
Sell Signal: Triggered when price action is bearish (close is below the previous period’s close) and DI- exceeds DI+, showing that sellers dominate the market.
Visual Signals: Green triangle (▲) indicating a buy opportunity, plotted below the bar.
Fuchsia triangle (▼) signaling a sell opportunity, plotted above the bar.
Customizable Inputs: The indicator allows users to adjust the ATR period, DI length, and ADX smoothing parameters, giving it the flexibility to suit different trading styles and timeframes.
Why should you use it?
This indicator simplifies the process of analyzing the combination market direction and trend strength. It is especially useful for traders who like strong directional movements and want clear, visually represented entry signals. The Karacatica Indicator can generate good buy or sell signals in trading and can be used on multiple assets and timeframes, making it adaptable to different market conditions.
Settings Overview: ATR Period: Sets the period for calculating ATR, used to determine market volatility.
DI Length: The length of the lookback period for DI+ and DI- calculations.
ADX Smoothing: Smooths the ADX (Average Directional Index) to reduce noise.
Feel free to experiment with this indicator, share feedback, and adapt it to your trading strategy. Good trading!
Statistical ArbitrageThe Statistical Arbitrage Strategy, also known as pairs trading, is a quantitative trading method that capitalizes on price discrepancies between two correlated assets. The strategy assumes that over time, the prices of these two assets will revert to their historical relationship. The core idea is to take advantage of mean reversion, a principle suggesting that asset prices will revert to their long-term average after deviating significantly.
Strategy Mechanics:
1. Selection of Correlated Assets:
• The strategy focuses on two historically correlated assets (e.g., equity index futures like Dow Jones Mini and S&P 500 Mini). These assets tend to move in the same direction due to similar underlying fundamentals, such as overall market conditions. By tracking their relative prices, the strategy seeks to exploit temporary mispricings.
2. Spread Calculation:
• The spread is the difference between the prices of the two assets. This spread represents the relationship between the assets and serves as the basis for determining when to enter or exit trades.
3. Mean and Standard Deviation:
• The historical average (mean) of the spread is calculated using a Simple Moving Average (SMA) over a chosen period. The strategy also computes the standard deviation (volatility) of the spread, which measures how far the spread has deviated from the mean over time. This allows the strategy to define statistically significant price deviations.
4. Entry Signal (Mean Reversion):
• A buy signal is triggered when the spread falls below the mean by a multiple (e.g., two) of the standard deviation. This indicates that one asset is temporarily undervalued relative to the other, and the strategy expects the spread to revert to its mean, generating profits as the prices converge.
5. Exit Signal:
• The strategy exits the trade when the spread reverts to the mean. At this point, the mispricing has been corrected, and the profit from the mean reversion is realized.
Academic Support:
Statistical arbitrage has been widely studied in finance and economics. Gatev, Goetzmann, and Rouwenhorst’s (2006) landmark study on pairs trading demonstrated that this strategy could generate excess returns in equity markets. Their research found that by focusing on historically correlated stocks, traders could identify pricing anomalies and profit from their eventual correction.
Additionally, Avellaneda and Lee (2010) explored statistical arbitrage in different asset classes and found that exploiting deviations in price relationships can offer a robust, market-neutral trading strategy. In these studies, the strategy’s success hinges on the stability of the relationship between the assets and the timely execution of trades when deviations occur.
Risks of Statistical Arbitrage:
1. Correlation Breakdown:
• One of the primary risks is the breakdown of correlation between the two assets. Statistical arbitrage assumes that the historical relationship between the assets will hold in the future. However, market conditions, company fundamentals, or external shocks (e.g., macroeconomic changes) can cause these assets to deviate permanently, leading to potential losses.
• For instance, if two equity indices historically move together but experience divergent economic conditions or policy changes, their prices may no longer revert to the expected mean.
2. Execution Risk:
• This strategy relies on efficient execution and tight spreads. In volatile or illiquid markets, the actual price at which trades are executed may differ significantly from expected prices, leading to slippage and reduced profits.
3. Market Risk:
• Although statistical arbitrage is designed to be market-neutral (i.e., not dependent on the overall market direction), it is not entirely risk-free. Systematic market shocks, such as financial crises or sudden shifts in market sentiment, can affect both assets simultaneously, causing the spread to widen rather than revert to the mean.
4. Model Risk:
• The assumptions underlying the strategy, particularly regarding mean reversion, may not always hold true. The model assumes that asset prices will return to their historical averages within a certain timeframe, but the timing and magnitude of mean reversion can be uncertain. Misestimating this timeframe can lead to extended drawdowns or unrealized losses.
5. Overfitting:
• Over-reliance on historical data to fine-tune the strategy parameters (e.g., the lookback period or standard deviation thresholds) may result in overfitting. This means that the strategy works well on past data but fails to perform in live markets due to changing conditions.
Conclusion:
The Statistical Arbitrage Strategy offers a systematic and quantitative approach to trading that capitalizes on temporary price inefficiencies between correlated assets. It has been proven to generate returns in academic studies and is widely used by hedge funds and institutional traders for its market-neutral characteristics. However, traders must be aware of the inherent risks, including correlation breakdown, execution risks, and the potential for prolonged deviations from the mean. Effective risk management, diversification, and constant monitoring are essential for successfully implementing this strategy in live markets.
$TUBR: 7-25-99 Moving Average7, 25, and 99 Period Moving Averages
This indicator plots three moving averages: the 7-period, 25-period, and 99-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA). These moving averages are widely used to smooth out price action and help traders identify trends over different time frames. Let's break down the significance of these specific moving averages from both supply and demand perspectives and a price action perspective.
1. Supply and Demand Perspective:
- 7-period Moving Average (Short-Term) :
The 7-period moving average represents the short-term sentiment in the market. It captures the rapid fluctuations in price and is heavily influenced by recent supply and demand changes. Traders often look to the 7-period SMA for immediate price momentum, with price moving above or below this line signaling short-term strength or weakness.
- Bullish Supply/Demand : When price is above the 7-period SMA, it suggests that buyers are currently in control and demand is higher than supply. Conversely, price falling below this line indicates that supply is overpowering demand, leading to a short-term downtrend.
Is current price > average price in past 7 candles (depending on timeframe)? This will tell you how aggressive buyers are in short term.
- Key Supply/Demand Zones : The 7-period SMA often acts as dynamic support or resistance in a trending market, where traders might use it to enter or exit positions based on how price interacts with this level.
- 25-period Moving Average (Medium-Term) :
The 25-period SMA smooths out more of the noise compared to the 7-period, providing a more stable indication of intermediate trends. This moving average is often used to gauge the market's supply and demand balance over a broader timeframe than the short-term 7-period SMA.
- Supply/Demand Balance : The 25-period SMA reflects the medium-term equilibrium between supply and demand. A crossover between the price and the 25-period SMA may indicate a shift in this balance. When price sustains above the 25-period SMA, it shows that demand is strong enough to maintain an upward trend. Conversely, if the price stays below it, supply is likely exceeding demand.
Is current price > average price in past 25 candles (depending on timeframe)? This will tell you how aggressive buyers are in mid term.
- Momentum Shift : Crossovers between the 7-period and 25-period SMAs can indicate momentum shifts between short-term and medium-term demand. For example, if the 7-period crosses above the 25-period, it often signifies growing short-term demand relative to the medium-term trend, signaling potential buy opportunities. What this crossover means is that if 7MA > 25MA that means in past 7 candles average price is more than past 25 candles.
- 99-period Moving Average (Long-Term):
The 99-period SMA represents the long-term trend and reflects the market's supply and demand over an extended period. This moving average filters out short-term fluctuations and highlights the market's overall trajectory.
- Long-Term Supply/Demand Dynamics : The 99-period SMA is slower to react to changes in supply and demand, providing a more stable view of the market's overall trend. Price staying above this line shows sustained demand dominance, while price consistently staying below reflects ongoing supply pressure.
Is current price > average price in past 99 candles (depending on timeframe)? This will tell you how aggressive buyers are in long term.
- Market Trend Confirmation : When both the 7-period and 25-period SMAs are above the 99-period SMA, it signals a strong bullish trend with demand outweighing supply across all timeframes. If all three SMAs are below the 99-period SMA, it points to a bear market where supply is overpowering demand in both the short and long term.
2. Price Action Perspective :
- 7-period Moving Average (Short-Term Trends):
The 7-period moving average closely tracks price action, making it highly responsive to quick shifts in price. Traders often use it to confirm short-term reversals or continuations in price action. In an uptrend, price typically stays above the 7-period SMA, whereas in a downtrend, price stays below it.
- Short-Term Price Reversals : Crossovers between the price and the 7-period SMA often indicate short-term reversals. When price breaks above the 7-period SMA after staying below it, it suggests a potential bullish reversal. Conversely, a price breakdown below the 7-period SMA could signal a bearish reversal.
- 25-period Moving Average (Medium-Term Trends) :
The 25-period SMA helps identify the medium-term price action trend. It balances short-term volatility and longer-term stability, providing insight into the more persistent trend. Price pullbacks to the 25-period SMA during an uptrend can act as a buying opportunity for trend traders, while pullbacks during a downtrend may offer shorting opportunities.
- Pullback and Continuation: In trending markets, price often retraces to the 25-period SMA before continuing in the direction of the trend. For instance, if the price is in a bullish trend, traders may look for support at the 25-period SMA for potential continuation trades.
- 99-period Moving Average (Long-Term Trend and Market Sentiment ):
The 99-period SMA is the most critical for identifying the overall market trend. Price consistently trading above the 99-period SMA indicates long-term bullish momentum, while price staying below the 99-period SMA suggests bearish sentiment.
- Trend Confirmation : Price action above the 99-period SMA confirms long-term upward momentum, while price action below it confirms a downtrend. The space between the shorter moving averages (7 and 25) and the 99-period SMA gives a sense of the strength or weakness of the trend. Larger gaps between the 7 and 99 SMAs suggest strong bullish momentum, while close proximity indicates consolidation or potential reversals.
- Price Action in Trending Markets : Traders often use the 99-period SMA as a dynamic support/resistance level. In strong trends, price tends to stay on one side of the 99-period SMA for extended periods, with breaks above or below signaling major changes in market sentiment.
Why These Numbers Matter:
7-Period MA : The 7-period moving average is a popular choice among short-term traders who want to capture quick momentum changes. It helps visualize immediate market sentiment and is often used in conjunction with price action to time entries or exits.
- 25-Period MA: The 25-period MA is a key indicator for swing traders. It balances sensitivity and stability, providing a clearer picture of the intermediate trend. It helps traders stay in trades longer by filtering out short-term noise, while still being reactive enough to detect reversals.
- 99-Period MA : The 99-period moving average provides a broad view of the market's direction, filtering out much of the short- and medium-term noise. It is crucial for identifying long-term trends and assessing whether the market is bullish or bearish overall. It acts as a key reference point for longer-term trend followers, helping them stay with the broader market sentiment.
Conclusion:
From a supply and demand perspective, the 7, 25, and 99-period moving averages help traders visualize shifts in the balance between buyers and sellers over different time horizons. The price action interaction with these moving averages provides valuable insight into short-term momentum, intermediate trends, and long-term market sentiment. Using these three MAs together gives a more comprehensive understanding of market conditions, helping traders align their strategies with prevailing trends across various timeframes.
------------- RULE BASED SYSTEM ---------------
Overview of the Rule-Based System:
This system will use the following moving averages:
7-period MA: Represents short-term price action.
25-period MA: Represents medium-term price action.
99-period MA: Represents long-term price action.
1. Trend Identification Rules:
Bullish Trend:
The 7-period MA is above the 25-period MA, and the 25-period MA is above the 99-period MA.
This structure shows that short, medium, and long-term trends are aligned in an upward direction, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Bearish Trend:
The 7-period MA is below the 25-period MA, and the 25-period MA is below the 99-period MA.
This suggests that the market is in a downtrend, with bearish momentum dominating across timeframes.
Neutral/Consolidation:
The 7-period MA and 25-period MA are flat or crossing frequently with the 99-period MA, and they are close to each other.
This indicates a sideways or consolidating market where there’s no strong trend direction.
2. Entry Rules:
Bullish Entry (Buy Signals):
Primary Buy Signal:
The price crosses above the 7-period MA, AND the 7-period MA is above the 25-period MA, AND the 25-period MA is above the 99-period MA.
This indicates the start of a new upward trend, with alignment across the short, medium, and long-term trends.
Pullback Buy Signal (for trend continuation):
The price pulls back to the 25-period MA, and the 7-period MA remains above the 25-period MA.
This indica
tes that the pullback is a temporary correction in an uptrend, and buyers may re-enter the market as price approaches the 25-period MA.
You can further confirm the signal by waiting for price action (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns) at the 25-period MA level.
Breakout Buy Signal:
The price crosses above the 99-period MA, and the 7-period and 25-period MAs are also both above the 99-period MA.
This confirms a strong bullish breakout after consolidation or a long-term downtrend.
Bearish Entry (Sell Signals):
Primary Sell Signal:
The price crosses below the 7-period MA, AND the 7-period MA is below the 25-period MA, AND the 25-period MA is below the 99-period MA.
This indicates the start of a new downtrend with alignment across the short, medium, and long-term trends.
Pullback Sell Signal (for trend continuation):
The price pulls back to the 25-period MA, and the 7-period MA remains below the 25-period MA.
This indicates that the pullback is a temporary retracement in a downtrend, providing an opportunity to sell as price meets resistance at the 25-period MA.
Breakdown Sell Signal:
The price breaks below the 99-period MA, and the 7-period and 25-period MAs are also below the 99-period MA.
This confirms a strong bearish breakdown after consolidation or a long-term uptrend reversal.
3. Exit Rules:
Bullish Exit (for long positions):
Short-Term Exit:
The price closes below the 7-period MA, and the 7-period MA starts crossing below the 25-period MA.
This indicates weakening momentum in the uptrend, suggesting an exit from the long position.
Stop-Loss Trigger:
The price falls below the 99-period MA, signaling the breakdown of the long-term trend.
This can act as a final exit signal to minimize losses if the long-term uptrend is invalidated.
Bearish Exit (for short positions):
Short-Term Exit:
The price closes above the 7-period MA, and the 7-period MA starts crossing above the 25-period MA.
This indicates a potential weakening of the downtrend and signals an exit from the short position.
Stop-Loss Trigger:
The price breaks above the 99-period MA, invalidating the bearish trend.
This signals that the market may be reversing to the upside, and exiting short positions would be prudent.
Swing Breakout Sequence [LuxAlgo]The Swing Breakout Sequence tool enables traders to identify a directional price action scalping sequence comprising two unsuccessful breakouts in the same direction, with the expectation of a third.
🔶 USAGE
This sequence looks for pressure on one side of a swing zone.
The market tried to break out of the zone twice but failed. This led to a pullback into the zone after each attempt. Once a reversal inside the zone is identified, the sequence is complete. It is expected that the market will move from the final reversal within the zone to the final breakout attempt outside the zone.
The sequence of price action is as follows:
Point 1: Breakout attempt out of the swing zone
Point 2: Pullback into the zone
Point 3: Breakout attempt out of Point 1
Point 4: Pullback into the zone, tapping into Point 2 liquidity
Point 5: Reversal structure with Point 4 in the form of a double top or double bottom
This sequence assumes traders will be caught off-guard when they try to capitalize on the initial breakout at Point 1, which is likely to result in a loss. If the breakout at Point 3 fails, all traders will be caught out and switch positions.
If there is enough pressure in the swing zone to cause a reversal at Point 5, the trapped traders could be the start of the next breakout attempt.
🔹 Sequence Detection
Traders can define sequence behavior and adjust detection with three parameters from the Settings panel.
Disabling Points 4 and 5 will detect the most uncompleted sequences.
🔹 Showing/Hiding Elements
Traders can change the look of sequences by showing or hiding their parts using the Style settings.
🔶 SETTINGS
Swing Length: Number of candles to confirm a swing high or swing low. A higher number detects larger swings.
Internal Length: Number of candles to confirm a internal high or internal low. A lower number detects smaller swings. It must be the same size or smaller than the swing length.
🔹 Detection
Point 4 Beyond Point 2: It only detects sequences where Point 4 is beyond Point 2.
Show Point 5: Enable/disable Point 5 detection.
Require Equal H/L at Point 5: Enable/Disable double top/bottom detection at Point 5 within a given threshold. A bigger value detects more sequences.
🔹 Style
Show Sequence Path: Enable/disable a line between sequence points.
Show Boxes: Enable/disable colored boxes for each sequence.
Show Lines: Enable/disable horizontal lines from each point of the sequence.
Default Color: Define the color or enable/disable auto color.
Value at Risk [OmegaTools]The "Value at Risk" (VaR) indicator is a powerful financial risk management tool that helps traders estimate the potential losses in a portfolio over a specified period of time, given a certain level of confidence. VaR is widely used by financial institutions, traders, and risk managers to assess the probability of portfolio losses in both normal and volatile market conditions. This TradingView script implements a comprehensive VaR calculation using several models, allowing users to visualize different risk scenarios and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
Concept of Value at Risk
Value at Risk (VaR) is a statistical technique used to measure the likelihood of losses in a portfolio or financial asset due to market risks. In essence, it answers the question: "What is the maximum potential loss that could occur in a given portfolio over a specific time horizon, with a certain confidence level?" For instance, if a portfolio has a one-day 95% VaR of $10,000, it means that there is a 95% chance the portfolio will not lose more than $10,000 in a single day. Conversely, there is a 5% chance of losing more than $10,000. VaR is a key risk management tool for portfolio managers and traders because it quantifies potential losses in monetary terms, allowing for better-informed decision-making.
There are several ways to calculate VaR, and this indicator script incorporates three of the most commonly used models:
Historical VaR: This approach uses historical returns to estimate potential losses. It is based purely on past price data, assuming that the past distribution of returns is indicative of future risks.
Variance-Covariance VaR: This model assumes that asset returns follow a normal distribution and that the risk can be summarized using the mean and standard deviation of past returns. It is a parametric method that is widely used in financial risk management.
Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) VaR: In this model, recent data points are given more weight than older data. This dynamic approach allows the VaR estimation to react more quickly to changes in market volatility, which is particularly useful during periods of market stress. This model uses the Exponential Weighted Moving Average Volatility Model.
How the Script Works
The script starts by offering users a set of customizable input settings. The first input allows the user to choose between two main calculation modes: "All" or "OCT" (Only Current Timeframe). In the "All" mode, the script calculates VaR using all available methodologies—Historical, Variance-Covariance, and EWMA—providing a comprehensive risk overview. The "OCT" mode narrows the calculation to the current timeframe, which can be particularly useful for intraday traders who need a more focused view of risk.
The next input is the lookback window, which defines the number of historical periods used to calculate VaR. Commonly used lookback periods include 21 days (approximately one month), 63 days (about three months), and 252 days (roughly one year), with the script supporting up to 504 days for more extended historical analysis. A longer lookback period provides a more comprehensive picture of risk but may be less responsive to recent market conditions.
The confidence level is another important setting in the script. This represents the probability that the loss will not exceed the VaR estimate. Standard confidence levels are 90%, 95%, and 99%. A higher confidence level results in a more conservative risk estimate, meaning that the calculated VaR will reflect a more extreme loss scenario.
In addition to these core settings, the script allows users to customize the visual appearance of the indicator. For example, traders can choose different colors for "Bullish" (Risk On), "Bearish" (Risk Off), and "Neutral" phases, as well as colors for highlighting "Breaks" in the data, where returns exceed the calculated VaR. These visual cues make it easy to identify periods of heightened risk at a glance.
The actual VaR calculation is broken down into several models, starting with the Historical VaR calculation. This is done by computing the logarithmic returns of the asset's closing prices and then using linear interpolation to determine the percentile corresponding to the desired confidence level. This percentile represents the potential loss in the asset over the lookback period.
Next, the script calculates Variance-Covariance VaR using the mean and standard deviation of the historical returns. The standard deviation is multiplied by a z-score corresponding to the chosen confidence level (e.g., 1.645 for 95% confidence), and the resulting value is subtracted from the mean return to arrive at the VaR estimate.
The EWMA VaR model uses the EWMA for the sigma parameter, the standard deviation, obtaining a specific dynamic in the volatility. It is particularly useful in volatile markets where recent price behavior is more indicative of future risk than older data.
For traders interested in intraday risk management, the script provides several methods to adjust VaR calculations for lower timeframes. By using intraday returns and scaling them according to the chosen timeframe, the script provides a dynamic view of risk throughout the trading day. This is especially important for short-term traders who need to manage their exposure during high-volatility periods within the same day. The script also incorporates an EWMA model for intraday data, which gives greater weight to the most recent intraday price movements.
In addition to calculating VaR, the script also attempts to detect periods where the asset's returns exceed the estimated VaR threshold, referred to as "Breaks." When the returns breach the VaR limit, the script highlights these instances on the chart, allowing traders to quickly identify periods of extreme risk. The script also calculates the average of these breaks and displays it for comparison, helping traders understand how frequently these high-risk periods occur.
The script further visualizes the risk scenario using a risk phase classification system. Depending on the level of risk, the script categorizes the market as either "Risk On," "Risk Off," or "Risk Neutral." In "Risk On" mode, the market is considered bullish, and the indicator displays a green background. In "Risk Off" mode, the market is bearish, and the background turns red. If the market is neither strongly bullish nor bearish, the background turns neutral, signaling a balanced risk environment.
Traders can customize whether they want to see this risk phase background, along with toggling the display of the various VaR models, the intraday methods, and the break signals. This flexibility allows traders to tailor the indicator to their specific needs, whether they are day traders looking for quick intraday insights or longer-term investors focused on historical risk analysis.
The "Risk On" and "Risk Off" phases calculated by this Value at Risk (VaR) script introduce a novel approach to market risk assessment, offering traders an advanced toolset to gauge market sentiment and potential risk levels dynamically. These risk phases are built on a combination of traditional VaR methodologies and proprietary logic to create a more responsive and intuitive way to manage exposure in both normal and volatile market conditions. This method of classifying market conditions into "Risk On," "Risk Off," or "Risk Neutral" is not something that has been traditionally associated with VaR, making it a groundbreaking addition to this indicator.
How the "Risk On" and "Risk Off" Phases Are Calculated
In typical VaR implementations, the focus is on calculating the potential losses at a given confidence level without providing an overall market outlook. This script, however, introduces a unique risk classification system that takes the output of various VaR models and translates it into actionable signals for traders, marking whether the market is in a Risk On, Risk Off, or Risk Neutral phase.
The Risk On and Risk Off phases are primarily determined by comparing the current returns of the asset to the average VaR calculated across several different methods, including Historical VaR, Variance-Covariance VaR, and EWMA VaR. Here's how the process works:
1. Threshold Setting and Effect Calculation: The script first computes the average VaR using the selected models. It then checks whether the current returns (expressed as a negative value to signify loss) exceed the average VaR value. If the current returns surpass the calculated VaR threshold, this indicates that the actual market risk is higher than expected, signaling a potential shift in market conditions.
2. Break Analysis: In addition to monitoring whether returns exceed the average VaR, the script counts the number of instances within the lookback period where this breach occurs. This is referred to as the "break effect." For each period in the lookback window, the script checks whether the returns surpass the calculated VaR threshold and increments a counter. The percentage of periods where this breach occurs is then calculated as the "effect" or break percentage.
3. Dual Effect Check (if "Double" Risk Scenario is selected): When the user chooses the "Double" risk scenario mode, the script performs two layers of analysis. First, it calculates the effect of returns exceeding the VaR threshold for the current timeframe. Then, it calculates the effect for the lower intraday timeframe as well. Both effects are compared to the user-defined confidence level (e.g., 95%). If both effects exceed the confidence level, the market is deemed to be in a high-risk situation, thus triggering a Risk Off phase. If both effects fall below the confidence level, the market is classified as Risk On.
4. Risk Phases Determination: The final risk phase is determined by analyzing these effects in relation to the confidence level:
- Risk On: If the calculated effect of breaks is lower than the confidence level (e.g., fewer than 5% of periods show returns exceeding the VaR threshold for a 95% confidence level), the market is considered to be in a relatively safe state, and the script signals a "Risk On" phase. This is indicative of bullish conditions where the potential for extreme loss is minimal.
- Risk Off: If the break effect exceeds the confidence level (e.g., more than 5% of periods show returns breaching the VaR threshold), the market is deemed to be in a high-risk state, and the script signals a "Risk Off" phase. This indicates bearish market conditions where the likelihood of significant losses is higher.
- Risk Neutral: If the break effect hovers near the confidence level or if there is no clear trend indicating a shift toward either extreme, the market is classified as "Risk Neutral." In this phase, neither bulls nor bears are dominant, and traders should remain cautious.
The phase color that the script uses helps visualize these risk phases. The background will turn green in Risk On conditions, red in Risk Off conditions, and gray in Risk Neutral phases, providing immediate visual feedback on market risk. In addition to this, when the "Double" risk scenario is selected, the background will only turn green or red if both the current and intraday timeframes confirm the respective risk phase. This double-checking process ensures that traders are only given a strong signal when both longer-term and short-term risks align, reducing the likelihood of false signals.
A New Way of Using Value at Risk
This innovative Risk On/Risk Off classification, based on the interaction between VaR thresholds and market returns, represents a significant departure from the traditional use of Value at Risk as a pure risk measurement tool. Typically, VaR is employed as a backward-looking measure of risk, providing a static estimate of potential losses over a given timeframe with no immediate actionable feedback on current market conditions. This script, however, dynamically interprets VaR results to create a forward-looking, real-time signal that informs traders whether they are operating in a favorable (Risk On) or unfavorable (Risk Off) environment.
By incorporating the "break effect" analysis and allowing users to view the VaR breaches as a percentage of past occurrences, the script adds a predictive element that can be used to time market entries and exits more effectively. This **dual-layer risk analysis**, particularly when using the "Double" scenario mode, adds further granularity by considering both current timeframe and intraday risks. Traders can therefore make more informed decisions not just based on historical risk data, but on how the market is behaving in real-time relative to those risk benchmarks.
This approach transforms the VaR indicator from a risk monitoring tool into a decision-making system that helps identify favorable trading opportunities while alerting users to potential market downturns. It provides a more holistic view of market conditions by combining both statistical risk measurement and intuitive phase-based market analysis. This level of integration between VaR methodologies and real-time signal generation has not been widely seen in the world of trading indicators, marking this script as a cutting-edge tool for risk management and market sentiment analysis.
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to @skewedzeta for his invaluable contribution to the final script. From generating fresh ideas to applying his expertise in reviewing the formula, his support has been instrumental in refining the outcome.
RSI from Rolling VWAP [CHE]Introducing the RSI from Rolling VWAP Indicator
Elevate your trading strategy with the RSI from Rolling VWAP —a cutting-edge indicator designed to provide unparalleled insights and enhance your decision-making on TradingView. This advanced tool seamlessly integrates the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with a Rolling Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) to deliver precise and actionable trading signals.
Why Choose RSI from Rolling VWAP ?
- Clear Trend Detection: Our enhanced algorithms ensure accurate identification of bullish and bearish trends, allowing you to capitalize on market movements with confidence.
- Customizable Time Settings: Tailor the time window in days, hours, and minutes to align perfectly with your unique trading strategy and market conditions.
- Flexible Moving Averages: Select from a variety of moving average types—including SMA, EMA, WMA, and more—to smooth the RSI, providing clearer trend analysis and reducing market noise.
- Threshold Alerts: Define upper and lower RSI thresholds to effortlessly spot overbought or oversold conditions, enabling timely and informed trading decisions.
- Visual Enhancements: Enjoy a visually intuitive interface with color-coded RSI lines, moving averages, and background fills that make interpreting market data straightforward and efficient.
- Automatic Signal Labels: Receive immediate bullish and bearish labels directly on your chart, signaling potential trading opportunities without the need for constant monitoring.
Key Features
- Inspired by Proven Tools: Building upon the robust foundation of TradingView's Rolling VWAP, our indicator offers enhanced functionality and greater precision.
- Volume-Weighted Insights: By incorporating volume into the VWAP calculation, gain a deeper understanding of price movements and market strength.
- User-Friendly Configuration: Easily adjust settings to match your trading preferences, whether you're a novice trader or an experienced professional.
- Hypothesis-Driven Analysis: Utilize hypothetical results to backtest strategies, understanding that past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.
How It Works
1. Data Integration: Utilizes the `hlc3` (average of high, low, and close) as the default data source, with customization options available to suit your trading needs.
2. Dynamic Time Window: Automatically calculates the optimal time window based on an auto timeframe or allows for fixed time periods, ensuring flexibility and adaptability.
3. Rolling VWAP Calculation: Accurately computes the Rolling VWAP by balancing price and volume over the specified time window, providing a reliable benchmark for price action.
4. RSI Analysis: Measures momentum through RSI based on Rolling VWAP changes, smoothed with your chosen moving average for enhanced trend clarity.
5. Actionable Signals: Detects and labels bullish and bearish conditions when RSI crosses predefined thresholds, offering clear indicators for potential market entries and exits.
Seamless Integration with Your TradingView Experience
Adding the RSI from Rolling VWAP to your TradingView charts is straightforward:
1. Add to Chart: Simply copy the Pine Script code into TradingView's Pine Editor and apply it to your desired chart.
2. Customize Settings: Adjust the Source Settings, Time Settings, RSI Settings, MA Settings, and Color Settings to align with your trading strategy.
3. Monitor Signals: Watch for RSI crossings above or below your set thresholds, accompanied by clear labels indicating bullish or bearish trends.
4. Optimize Your Trades: Leverage the visual and analytical strengths of the indicator to make informed buy or sell decisions, maximizing your trading potential.
Disclaimer:
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Get Started Today
Transform your trading approach with the RSI from Rolling VWAP indicator. Experience the synergy of momentum and volume-based analysis, and unlock the potential for more accurate and profitable trades.
Download now and take the first step towards a more informed and strategic trading journey!
For further inquiries or support, feel free to contact
Best regards
Chervolino
Inspired by the acclaimed Rolling VWAP by TradingView
Z-Scored Moving Average Suite [KFB Quant]Z-Scored Moving Average Suite
This indicator combines several types of moving averages—Simple, Exponential, and Weighted—with a Z-Score calculation to give a clearer understanding of price trends in relation to their historical averages. It is used to detect overbought (OB) and oversold (OS) conditions, allowing you to see when an asset is deviating significantly from its mean.
Key Components:
Moving Averages: The suite includes Simple (SMA), Exponential (EMA), and Weighted (WMA) Moving Averages. For each, a single, double, and triple version is calculated to smooth out noise.
Z-Score: The Z-Score measures how far the current price is from its moving average in terms of standard deviations, helping to highlight unusual price behavior.
Overbought and Oversold Levels:
- When the Z-Score crosses above a predefined threshold (1.5 by default), the asset is considered Overbought (OB).
- When the Z-Score drops below a certain level (-1.5 by default), the asset is seen as Oversold (OS).
Visualization:
- The histogram represents the average Z-Score of all the moving averages combined, colored based on bullish (blue) or bearish (brown) trends.
- Individual Z-Scores for each moving average type (SMA, EMA, WMA) are also plotted, providing further insight into the momentum and direction.
Signals:
- The table in the chart shows a summary of Z-Scores for each type of moving average. It also provides a quick glance at whether the asset is in a bullish or bearish phase, if the Z-Scores are rising or falling, and whether the asset is overbought or oversold.
This tool is highly customizable, with adjustable lengths for the moving averages and Z-Scores, making it a flexible addition to any trading strategy that relies on mean-reversion or trend analysis.
Disclaimer: This tool is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
OBV based on MADescription:
This indicator calculates On-Balance Volume (OBV) based on the direction of a Simple Moving Average (SMA). Instead of using price movements, this OBV adds or subtracts volume depending on whether the SMA is rising or falling.
SMA-based OBV: When the SMA rises, the volume is added to the OBV. When the SMA falls, the volume is subtracted from the OBV. This allows traders to observe cumulative volume in relation to the wave patterns created by the SMA.
SMA Period: The period of the SMA can be customized, allowing traders to adjust it according to the wave size they want to observe.
While the cumulative volume indicator already exists, traders who analyze volume patterns can use this indicator to more easily conduct volume analysis across different wave sizes.
Inputs:
SMA Period: Defines the lookback period for calculating the Simple Moving Average (default is 25).
Ideal for:
Traders who want to analyze volume flow relative to moving average trends, rather than price movements. This can help identify underlying strength or weakness in market trends.
説明:
このインジケーターは、単純移動平均（SMA）の方向に基づいてオンバランス・ボリューム（OBV）を計算します。価格の動きではなく、SMAが上昇しているときは出来高を加算し、SMAが下降しているときは出来高を減算します。
SMA基準のOBV: SMAが上昇している場合はOBVに出来高が加算され、SMAが下降している場合は出来高が減算されます。これにより、SMAが作る波形に即した累積出来高を観察することができます。
SMA期間: トレーダーが見たい波のサイズ感に応じて、SMAの期間をカスタマイズできます。
既に累積出来高（Cumulative Volume）というインジケーターは存在しますが、波形を基に出来高を分析しているトレーダーは、このインジケーターを使うことで、様々なサイズの波形に即した出来高分析をより簡単に行うことができます。
入力項目:
SMA期間: 単純移動平均の計算に使用される期間を定義します（デフォルトは25）。
適しているトレーダー:
より波形に即した累積出来高分析を重視するトレーダーに最適です。
MB - Currency Strength ROCCurrency Strength ROC Enhanced is a technical indicator designed to measure and visualize the relative strength of different currencies in the foreign exchange market. Using a Rate of Change (ROC) approach and moving averages, this indicator provides valuable insights into the dynamics of currency strengths.
Key Features:
Relative Strength Measurement:
Calculates the strength of each currency relative to others, allowing you to identify which currencies are appreciating or depreciating.
Strength Histogram:
Presents normalized strength in a histogram format, making it easy to quickly see areas of positive (green) and negative (red) strength
Moving Averages:
Includes moving averages of normalized strength and trend, providing a clear view of the overall direction of strength over time.
Overbought and Oversold Zones:
Highlights critical levels of strength through horizontal lines, allowing traders to identify potential trend reversals.
