Wick Bias - by TenAMTraderWick Bias - by TenAMTrader
Wick Bias helps traders quickly visualize market pressure by analyzing candle wicks and bodies over a user-defined number of bars. By comparing top and bottom wicks, the indicator identifies whether buying or selling pressure has been dominant, providing a clear Indicator Bias signal (Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral).
Key Features:
Shows Top Wicks %, Bottom Wicks %, and optional Body % for recent candles.
Highlights Indicator Bias to indicate short-term market trends.
Fully customizable colors for table rows and bias labels.
Option to show or hide body percentage.
Alerts trigger on bias flips, with optional on-chart labels.
Table can be placed in any chart corner.
Updates in real-time with each new bar.
Recommended Use:
Ideal for intraday and swing traders looking for a quick visual cue of short-term market momentum.
Can be combined with other technical analysis tools to confirm trade setups or potential reversals.
Disclaimer / Legal Notice:
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Users are responsible for their own trades. The developer is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this indicator.
Chỉ báo và chiến lược
Asia Session Mechanical Entry by AleThis indicator executes fully mechanical trades at the start of the Asian session (default: 20:00 Argentina time).
Core logic:
Compares the closing prices of the previous two sessions at 20:00 and 09:00 to determine bias.
If both days move in the same direction, the indicator takes a mean-reversion trade (opposite to the last two days’ move).
If the days move in opposite directions, the trade follows the most recent day’s direction.
Execution details:
Entry price: exact session open or delayed by a user-defined number of candles.
Stop Loss: nearest swing high/low ± ATR multiplier buffer.
Take Profit: calculated from entry to SL distance, multiplied by user-defined RR ratio.
ATR value plotted for volatility reference.
Works on H1 charts for consistent candle timing.
Features:
Adjustable start/end session times.
Configurable ATR multiplier, RR ratio, and delay before entry.
Manual overrides for SL/TP levels.
Automatic daily reset for next session's logic.
Notes:
This tool is based on a classic session-reversion model enhanced with ATR-based filters, flexible timing, and manual overrides. It is designed for systematic execution and quick visual backtesting.
Realtime RenkoI've been working on real-time renko for a while as a coding challenge. The interesting problem here is building renko bricks that form based on incoming tick data rather than waiting for bar closes. Every tick that comes through gets processed immediately, and when price moves enough to complete a brick, that brick closes and a new one opens right then. It's just neat because you can run it and it updates as you'd expect with renko, forming bricks based purely on price movement happening in real time rather than waiting for arbitrary time intervals to pass.
The three brick sizing methods give you flexibility in how you define "enough movement" to form a new brick. Traditional renko uses a fixed price range, so if you set it to 10 ticks, every brick represents exactly 10 ticks of movement. This works well for instruments with stable tick sizes and predictable volatility. ATR-based sizing calculates the average true range once at startup using a weighted average across all historical bars, then divides that by your brick value input. If you want bricks that are one full ATR in size, you'd use a brick value of 1. If you want half-ATR bricks, use 2. This inverted relationship exists because the calculation is ATR divided by your input, which lets you work with multiples and fractions intuitively. Percentage-based sizing makes each brick a fixed percentage move from the previous brick's close, which automatically scales with price level and works well for instruments that move proportionally rather than in absolute tick increments.
The best part about this implementation is how it uses varip for state management. When you first load the indicator, there's no history at all. Everything starts fresh from the moment you add it to your chart because varip variables only exist in real-time. This means you're watching actual renko bricks form from real tick data as it arrives. The indicator builds its own internal history as it runs, storing up to 250 completed bricks in memory, but that history only exists for the current session. Refresh the page or reload the indicator and it starts over from scratch.
The visual implementation uses boxes for brick bodies and lines for wicks, drawn at offset bar indices to create the appearance of a continuous renko chart in the indicator pane. Each brick occupies two bar index positions horizontally, which spaces them out and makes the chart readable. The current brick updates in real time as new ticks arrive, with its high, low, and close values adjusting continuously until it reaches the threshold to close and become finalized. Once a brick closes, it gets pushed into the history array and a new brick opens at the closing level of the previous one.
What makes this especially useful for debugging and analysis are the hover tooltips on each brick. Clicking on any brick brings up information showing when it opened with millisecond precision, how long it took to form from open to close, its internal bar index within the renko sequence, and the brick size being used. That time delta measurement is particularly valuable because it reveals the pace of price movement. A brick that forms in five seconds indicates very different market conditions than one that takes three minutes, even though both bricks represent the same amount of price movement. You can spot acceleration and deceleration in trend development by watching how quickly consecutive bricks form.
The pine logs that generate when bricks close serve as breadcrumbs back to the main chart. Every time a brick finalizes, the indicator writes a log entry with the same information shown in the tooltip. You can click that log entry and TradingView jumps your main chart to the exact timestamp when that brick closed. This lets you correlate renko brick formation with what was happening on the time-based chart, which is critical for understanding context. A brick that closed during a major news announcement or at a key support level tells a different story than one that closed during quiet drift, and the logs make it trivial to investigate those situations.
The internal bar indexing system maintains a separate count from the chart's bar_index, giving each renko brick its own sequential number starting from when the indicator begins running. This makes it easy to reference specific bricks in your analysis or when discussing patterns with others. The internal index increments only when a brick closes, so it's a pure measure of how many bricks have formed regardless of how much chart time has passed. You can match these indices between the visual bricks and the log entries, which helps when you're trying to track down the details of a specific brick that caught your attention.
Brick overshoot handling ensures that when price blows through the threshold level instead of just barely touching it, the brick closes at the threshold and the excess movement carries over to the next brick. This prevents gaps in the renko sequence and maintains the integrity of the brick sizing. If price shoots up through your bullish threshold and keeps going, the current brick closes at exactly the threshold level and the new brick opens there with the overshoot already baked into its initial high. Without this logic, you'd get renko bricks with irregular sizes whenever price moved aggressively, which would undermine the whole point of using fixed-range bricks.
The timezone setting lets you adjust timestamps to your local time or whatever reference you prefer, which matters when you're analyzing logs or comparing brick formation times across different sessions. The time delta formatter converts raw milliseconds into human-readable strings showing days, hours, minutes, and seconds with fractional precision. This makes it immediately clear whether a brick took 12.3 seconds or 2 minutes and 15 seconds to form, without having to parse millisecond values mentally.
This is the script version that will eventually be integrated into my real-time candles library. The library version had an issue with tooltips not displaying correctly, which this implementation fixes by using a different approach to label creation and positioning. Running it as a standalone indicator also gives you more control over the visual settings and makes it easier to experiment with different brick sizing methods without affecting other tools that might be using the library version.
What this really demonstrates is that real-time indicators in Pine Script require thinking about state management and tick processing differently than historical indicators. Most indicator code assumes bars are immutable once closed, so you can reference `close ` and know that value will never change. Real-time renko throws that assumption out because the current brick is constantly mutating with every tick until it closes. Using varip for state variables and carefully tracking what belongs to finalized bricks versus the developing brick makes it possible to maintain consistency while still updating smoothly in real-time. The fact that there's no historical reconstruction and everything starts fresh when you load it is actually a feature, not a limitation, because you're seeing genuine real-time brick formation rather than some approximation of what might have happened in the past.
SMA 10 & 50SMA10&50
SMA 10 & 50 is a simple dual moving average indicator that plots two Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on the price chart: SMA10 and SMA50.
Features:
- SMA10 (fast): Period 10
- SMA50 (slow): Period 50
- Customizable source for each SMA
- Distinct colors for better visualization
Ideal for identifying short-term vs long-term trends, crossovers, and dynamic support/resistance levels.
Low Range Predictor [NR4/NR7 after WR4/WR7/WR20, within 1-3Days]Indicator Overview
The Low Range Predictor is a TradingView indicator displayed in a single panel below the chart. It spots volatility contraction setups (NR4/NR7 within 1–3 days of WR4/WR7/WR20) to predict low-range moves (e.g., <0.5% daily on SPY) over 2–5 days, perfect for your weekly 15/22 DTE put calendar spread strategy.
What You See
• Red Histograms (WR, Volatility Climax):
• WR4: Half-length red bars, widest range in 4 bars.
• WR7: Three-quarter-length red bars, widest in 7 bars.
• WR20: Full-length red bars, widest in 20 bars.
• Green Histograms (NR, Entry Signals):
• NR4: Half-length green bars, only on NR4 days (tightest range in 4 bars) within 1–3 days of a WR4.
• NR7: Full-length green bars, only on NR7 days within 1–3 days of a WR7.
• Panel: All signals (red WR4/WR7/WR20, green NR4/NR7) show in one panel below the chart, with green bars marking put calendar entry days.
Probabilities
• Volatility Contraction:
• NR4 after WR4: 65–70% chance of daily ranges <0.5% on SPY for 2–5 days (ATR drops 20–30%). Occurs ~2–3 times/month.
• NR7 after WR7: 60–65% chance of similar low ranges, less frequent (~1–2 times/month).
• Backtest (SPY, 2000–2025): 65% of NR4/NR7 signals lead to reduced volatility (<0.7% daily range) vs. 50% for random days.
• Signal Frequency: NR4 signals are more common than NR7, ideal for weekly entries. WR20 provides context but isn’t tied to NR signals.
Multi-TF Trend Dashboard (12H / D / W)Trend Alignment Dashboard (12H/D/W, 200 EMA)
Quickly see trend direction across 12H, Daily, and Weekly charts. Includes 12H 200 EMA for major trend confirmation. Perfect for spotting strong multi-timeframe alignment at a glance.
AUTOMATIC ANALYSIS MODULE🧭 Overview
“Automatic Analysis Module” is a professional, multi-indicator system that interprets market conditions in real time using TSI, RSI, and ATR metrics.
It automatically detects trend reversals, volatility compressions, and momentum exhaustion, helping traders identify high-probability setups without manual analysis.
⚙️ Core Logic
The script continuously evaluates:
TSI (True Strength Index) → trend direction, strength, and early reversal zones.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) → momentum extremes and technical divergences.
ATR (Average True Range) → volatility expansion or compression phases.
Multi-timeframe ATR comparison → detects whether the weekly structure supports or contradicts the local move.
The system combines these signals to produce an automatic interpretation displayed directly on the chart.
📊 Interpretation Table
At every new bar close, the indicator updates a compact dashboard (bottom right corner) showing:
🔵 Main interpretation → trend, reversal, exhaustion, or trap scenario.
🟢 Micro ATR context → volatility check and flow analysis (stable / expanding / contracting).
Each condition is expressed in plain English for quick decision-making — ideal for professional traders who manage multiple charts.
📈 How to Use
1️⃣ Load the indicator on your preferred asset and timeframe (recommended: Daily or 4H).
2️⃣ Watch the blue line message for the main trend interpretation.
3️⃣ Use the green line message as a volatility gauge before entering.
4️⃣ Confirm entries with your own strategy or price structure.
Typical examples:
“Possible bullish reversal” → early accumulation signal.
“Compression phase → wait for breakout” → avoid premature trades.
“Confirmed uptrend” → trend continuation zone.
⚡ Key Features
Real-time auto-interpretation of TSI/RSI/ATR signals.
Detects both bull/bear traps and trend exhaustion zones.
Highlights volatility transitions before breakouts occur.
Works across all assets and timeframes.
No repainting — stable on historical data.
✅ Ideal For
Swing traders, position traders, and institutional analysts who want automated context recognition instead of manual indicator reading.
London Breakout Structure by AleThis indicator identifies market structure breakouts (CHOCH/BOS) within a specific London session window, highlighting potential breakout trades with automatic entry, stop loss (SL), and take profit (TP) levels.
It helps traders focus on high-probability breakouts when volatility increases after the Asian session, using price structure, ATR-based volatility filters, and a custom risk/reward setup.
🔹 Example of Strategy Application
Define your session (e.g. 04:00 to 05:00).
Wait for a CHOCH (Change of Character) inside this session.
If a bullish CHOCH occurs → go LONG at candle close.
If a bearish CHOCH occurs → go SHORT at candle close.
SL is set below/above the previous swing using ATR × multiplier.
TP is calculated automatically based on your R:R ratio.
📊 Example:
When price breaks above the last swing high within the session, a “BUY” label appears and the indicator draws Entry, SL, and TP levels automatically.
If the breakout fails and price closes below the opposite structure, a “SELL” signal will replace the bullish setup.
🔹 Details
The logic is based on structural shifts (CHOCH/BOS):
A CHOCH occurs when price breaks and closes beyond the most recent high/low.
The indicator dynamically detects these shifts in structure, validating them only inside your chosen time window (e.g. the London Open).
The ATR filter ensures setups are valid only when the range has enough volatility, avoiding false signals in low-volume hours.
You can also visualize:
The session area (purple background)
Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profit levels
Direction labels (BUY/SELL)
ATR line for volatility context
🔹 Configuration
Start / End Hour: define your preferred trading window.
ATR Length & Multiplier: adjust for volatility.
Risk/Reward Ratio: set your desired R:R (default 1:2).
Minimum Range Filter: avoids signals with tight SLs.
Alerts: receive notifications when breakout conditions occur.
🔹 Recommendations
Works best on 15m or 5m charts during London session.
Designed for breakout and structure-based traders.
Works on Forex, Crypto, and Indices.
Ideal as a visual and educational tool for understanding BOS/CHOCH behavior.
London Breakout Structure by AleThis indicator identifies market structure breakouts (CHOCH/BOS) within a specific London session window, highlighting potential breakout trades with automatic entry, stop loss (SL), and take profit (TP) levels.
It helps traders focus on high-probability breakouts when volatility increases after the Asian session, using price structure, ATR-based volatility filters, and a custom risk/reward setup.
🔹 Example of Strategy Application
Define your session (e.g. 04:00 to 05:00).
Wait for a CHOCH (Change of Character) inside this session.
If a bullish CHOCH occurs → go LONG at candle close.
If a bearish CHOCH occurs → go SHORT at candle close.
SL is set below/above the previous swing using ATR × multiplier.
TP is calculated automatically based on your R:R ratio.
📊 Example:
When price breaks above the last swing high within the session, a “BUY” label appears and the indicator draws Entry, SL, and TP levels automatically.
If the breakout fails and price closes below the opposite structure, a “SELL” signal will replace the bullish setup.
🔹 Details
The logic is based on structural shifts (CHOCH/BOS):
A CHOCH occurs when price breaks and closes beyond the most recent high/low.
The indicator dynamically detects these shifts in structure, validating them only inside your chosen time window (e.g. the London Open).
The ATR filter ensures setups are valid only when the range has enough volatility, avoiding false signals in low-volume hours.
You can also visualize:
The session area (purple background)
Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profit levels
Direction labels (BUY/SELL)
ATR line for volatility context
🔹 Configuration
Start / End Hour: define your preferred trading window.
ATR Length & Multiplier: adjust for volatility.
Risk/Reward Ratio: set your desired R:R (default 1:2).
Minimum Range Filter: avoids signals with tight SLs.
Alerts: receive notifications when breakout conditions occur.
🔹 Recommendations
Works best on 15m or 5m charts during London session.
Designed for breakout and structure-based traders.
Works on Forex, Crypto, and Indices.
Ideal as a visual and educational tool for understanding BOS/CHOCH behavior.
BB_1-44 ББ в одном (4 in 1)
BB_1-4 is a multi-timeframe Bollinger Bands indicator that displays four different sets of Bollinger Bands on the price chart with customizable periods, line styles, and transparency levels.
Features:
- Four Bollinger Bands sets: bb_1 (20), bb_2 (80), bb_3 (160), bb_4 (320)
- Customizable period and multiplier for each set
- Unique line styles: standard, stepline, and stepline_diamond
- Adjustable line transparency for better visibility
- No fill between bands for cleaner chart layout
Ideal for multi-timeframe analysis, volatility assessment, and support/resistance level identification.
RSI Value Table – match builtin🧭 Overview
“RSI Value Table – match builtin” displays the exact RSI value (identical to TradingView’s built-in RSI) for any selected timeframe — directly on your chart.
It’s designed for professional traders who need quick RSI confirmation without switching panels or opening multiple indicators.
⚙️ Core Logic
Reads RSI from any timeframe using request.security() with gaps_off and lookahead_off — ensuring a perfect match with the native RSI.
Optional EMA smoothing (non-standard) for visual stability.
Color-coded cell:
🟩 Green → RSI > 50 (bullish momentum)
🟥 Red → RSI < 50 (bearish momentum)
🟨 Yellow → Neutral zone around 50
Adjustable table position: top/bottom, left/right corners.
⚡ Alerts
Built-in alert conditions trigger automatically:
RSI > 50 → bullish momentum confirmation.
RSI < 50 → bearish momentum confirmation.
📈 How to Use
Select your preferred RSI timeframe (e.g., Daily, Weekly, 4H).
Watch the color-coded cell:
Green → trade long bias only.
Red → short bias only.
Ideal as a confirmation module for multi-timeframe systems or smart signal engines.
Historical Vertical Lines 17:00-20:30Historical Vertical Lines 17:00-20:30. These lines show this specific time. You can edit the times via pine script. Easy.
Constant Auto Trendlines (Extended Right)📈 Constant Auto Trendlines (Extended Right)
This indicator automatically detects market structure by connecting swing highs and lows with permanent, forward-projecting trendlines.
Unlike standard trendline tools that stop at the last pivot, this version extends each trendline infinitely into the future — helping traders visualize where price may react next.
🔍 How It Works
The script identifies pivot highs and lows using user-defined left/right bar counts.
When a new lower high or higher low appears, the indicator draws a line between the two pivots and extends it forward using extend.right.
Each new confirmed trendline stays fixed, creating a historical map of structure that evolves naturally with market action.
Optional filters:
Min Slope – ignore nearly flat trendlines
Show Latest Only – focus on the most relevant trendline
Alerts – get notified when price crosses the most recent uptrend or downtrend line
🧩 Why It’s Useful
This tool helps traders:
Spot emerging trends early
Identify dynamic support/resistance diagonals
Avoid redrawing trendlines manually
Backtest structure breaks historically
⚙️ Inputs
Pivot Left / Right bars
Min slope threshold
Line color, width, and style
Show only latest line toggle
Alert options
Cyclical Phases of the Market🧭 Overview
“Cyclical Phases of the Market” automatically detects major market cycles by connecting swing lows and measuring the average number of bars between them.
Once it learns the rhythm of past cycles, it projects the next expected cycle (in time and price) using a dashed orange line and a forecast label.
In simple terms:
The indicator shows where the next potential low is statistically expected to occur, based on the timing and depth of previous cycles.
⚙️ Core Logic – Step by Step
1️⃣ Pivot Detection
The script uses the built-in ta.pivotlow() and ta.pivothigh() functions to find local turning points:
pivotLow marks a local swing low, defined by pivotLeft and pivotRight bars on each side.
Only confirmed lows are used to define the major cycle points.
Each new pivot low is stored in two arrays:
cycleLows → price level of the low
cycleBars → bar index where the low occurred
2️⃣ Cycle Identification and Drawing
Every time two consecutive swing lows are found, the indicator:
Calculates the number of bars between them (cycle length).
If that distance is greater than or equal to minCycleBars, it draws a teal line connecting the two lows — visually representing one complete cycle.
These teal lines form the historical cycle structure of the market.
3️⃣ Average Cycle Length
Once there are at least three completed cycles, the script calculates the average duration (mean number of bars between lows).
This value — avgCycleLength — represents the dominant periodicity or cycle rhythm of the market.
4️⃣ Forecasting the Next Cycle
When a valid average cycle length exists, the model projects the next expected cycle:
Time projection:
Adds avgCycleLength to the last cycle’s ending bar index to find where the next low should occur.
Price projection:
Estimates the vertical amplitude by taking the difference between the last two cycle lows (priceDiff).
Adds this same difference to the last low price to forecast the next probable low level.
The result is drawn as an orange dashed line extending into the future, representing the Next Expected Cycle.
5️⃣ Forecast Label
An orange label 🔮 appears at the projected future point showing:
Text:
🔮 Upcoming Cycle Forecast
Price:
The label marks the probable area and timing of the next cyclical low.
(Note: the date/time calculation currently multiplies bar count by 7 days, so it’s designed mainly for daily charts. On other timeframes, that conversion can be adapted.)
📊 How to Read It on the Chart
Visual Element Meaning Interpretation
Teal lines Completed historical cycles (low to low) Show actual periodic rhythm of the market
Orange dashed line Projection of the next expected cycle Anticipated path toward the next cyclical low
Orange label 🔮 Upcoming Cycle Forecast Displays expected price and bar location
Average cycle length Internal variable (bars between lows) Represents the dominant cycle period
📈 Interpretation
When teal segments show consistent spacing, the market is following a stable rhythm → cycles are predictable.
When cycle spacing shortens, the market is accelerating (volatility rising).
When it widens, the market is slowing down or entering accumulation.
The orange dashed line represents the next expected low zone:
If the market drops near this line → cyclical pattern confirmed.
If the market breaks well below → cycle amplitude has increased (trend weakening).
If the market rises above and delays → a new longer cycle may be forming.
🧠 Practical Use
Combine with oscillators (e.g., RSI or TSI) to confirm momentum alignment near projected lows.
Use in conjunction with volume to identify accumulation or exhaustion near the expected turning point.
Compare across timeframes: weekly cycles confirm long-term rhythm; daily cycles refine short-term entries.
⚡ Summary
Aspect Description
Purpose Detect and forecast recurring market cycles
Cycle basis Low-to-Low pivot analysis
Visuals Teal historical cycles + Orange forecast line
Forecast Next expected low (price and time)
Ideal timeframe Daily
Main outputs Average cycle length, next projected cycle, visual cycle map
Trend Pivot Retracements [TradeEasy]▶ OVERVIEW
Trend Pivot Retracements identifies market trend direction using a Donchian-style channel and dynamically highlights retracement zones during trending conditions. It calculates the percentage pullbacks from recent highs and lows, plots labeled zones with varying intensity, and visually connects key retracement pivots. The indicator also emphasizes price proximity to trend boundaries by dynamically adjusting the thickness of plotted trend bands.
▶ TREND DETECTION & BAND STRUCTURE
The indicator determines the current trend by checking for new 50-bar extremes:
Uptrend: If a new highest high is made, the trend is considered bullish.
Downtrend: If a new lowest low is made, the trend is considered bearish.
Uptrend Band: Plots the 50-bar lowest low as a trailing support level.
Downtrend Band: Plots the 50-bar highest high as a trailing resistance level.
Thickness Variation: The thickness of the band increases the further price moves from it, indicating overextension.
▶ RETRACEMENT LABELING SYSTEM
During a trend, the indicator monitors pivot points in the opposite direction to measure retracements:
Bullish Retracement:
Triggered when a pivot low forms during an uptrend.
Measures % pullback from the most recent swing high (searched up to 20 bars back).
Plots a bold horizontal line at the low and a dashed diagonal from the previous swing high.
Adds a “-%” label above the low; intensity is based on recent 50 pullbacks.
Bearish Retracement:
Triggered when a pivot high forms during a downtrend.
Measures % pullback from the previous swing low (up to 20 bars back).
Plots a bold horizontal line at the high and a dashed diagonal from the prior swing low.
Adds a “%” label below the high with gradient color based on the past 50 extremes.
▶ PIVOT CONNECTION LINES
Each retracement includes a visual connector:
A diagonal dashed line linking the swing extreme (20 bars back) to the retracement point.
This line visually traces the path of price retreat within the trend.
Helps traders understand where the retracement originated and how steep it was.
▶ TREND SWITCH SIGNALS
When trend direction changes:
A diamond marker is plotted on the new pivot confirming the trend shift.
Green diamonds signal new bullish trends at fresh lows.
Magenta diamonds signal new bearish trends at fresh highs.
▶ COLOR INTENSITY & CONTEXTUAL AWARENESS
To help interpret the magnitude of retracements:
The % labels are color-coded using a gradient scale that references the max of the last 50 pullbacks.
Stronger pullbacks result in deeper color intensity, signaling more significant corrections.
Trend bands also use standard deviation normalization to adjust line thickness based on how far price has moved from the band.
This creates a visual cue for potential exhaustion or volatility extremes.
▶ USAGE
Trend Pivot Retracements is a powerful tool for traders who want to:
Identify trend direction and contextual pullbacks within those trends.
Spot key retracement points that may serve as entry opportunities or reversal signals.
Use visual retracement angles to understand market pressure and trend maturity.
Read dynamic band thickness as an alert for price stretch, potential mean reversion, or breakout setups.
▶ CONCLUSION
Trend Pivot Retracements gives traders a clean, visually expressive way to monitor trending markets, while capturing and labeling meaningful retracements. With adaptive color intensity, diagonal connectors, and smart trend switching, it enhances situational awareness and provides immediate clarity on trend health and pullback strength.
NWOG/NDOG + EHPDA🌐 ENGLISH DESCRIPTION
Hybrid NWOG/NDOG + EHPDA – Advanced Gaps & Event Horizon Indicator
(Enhanced with Real-Time Alerts and Info Table)
📊 Overview
This advanced indicator combines automatic detection of weekly gaps (NWOG) and daily gaps (NDOG) with the Event Horizon (EHPDA) concept, now featuring customizable alerts and a real-time info table for a more efficient trading experience. Designed for traders who operate based on institutional price structures, liquidity zones, and SMC/ICT confluences.
✨ Key Features
1. Gap Detection & Visualization
NWOG (New Week Opening Gap): Identifies and visualizes the gap between Friday’s close and Monday’s open.
NDOG (New Day Opening Gap): Detects daily gaps on intraday timeframes.
Enhanced visualization: Semi-transparent boxes, price levels (top, middle, bottom), and lines extended to the current bar.
Customizable labels: Display gap formation date and price levels (optional).
2. Event Horizon (EHPDA)
Automatically calculates the Event Horizon level between two non-overlapping gaps.
Dashed line marking the equilibrium zone between bullish and bearish gaps.
3. Advanced 5pm-6pm Mode
Special option to detect the Sunday-Monday gap using 4H bars.
4. Real-Time Alerts
New gaps (NWOG/NDOG): Immediate notification when a new gap forms.
Gap fill: Alert when price completely fills a gap.
Event Horizon active: Notification when the Event Horizon level is triggered.
5. Info Table
Real-time display: number of active gaps, Event Horizon status, time remaining until weekly/daily close.
Customizable: position, size, and style.
🎨 Customization
Configurable colors for bullish gaps, bearish gaps, and Event Horizon line.
Customizable price labels and date format.
📈 Use Cases
Reversal trading, price targets, liquidity zones, SMC/ICT confluences.
⚙️ Recommended Settings
Timeframes: Daily and intraday (15m, 1H, 4H, etc.).
NWOG: Enable on all timeframes.
NDOG: Enable only on intraday.
Max Gaps: 3-5 for clean charts, 10-15 for historical analysis.
📝 Important Notes
Works best on 24/5 markets (Forex, Crypto).
Gaps automatically close when filled.
Event Horizon only appears with at least 2 non-overlapping gaps.
Spread Trading Z-ScoreIndicator: Z-Score Spread Indicator
Description
The "Z-Score Spread Indicator" is a powerful tool for traders employing mean-reversion strategies on the spread between two financial assets (e.g., futures contracts like MNQ and MES). This indicator calculates and plots the Z-score of the price spread, indicating how far the current spread deviates from its historical mean. It features customizable entry and exit thresholds with adjustable offsets, along with an estimated p-value displayed in a table to assess statistical significance.
Key Features
Asset Selection: Allows users to select two asset symbols (e.g., CME_MINI:MNQ1! and CME_MINI:MES1!) via customizable inputs.
Z-Score Calculation: Computes the Z-score based on the spread’s simple moving average and standard deviation over a user-defined lookback period.
Customizable Thresholds with Offset: Offers adjustable base entry and exit thresholds, with an optional offset to fine-tune trading levels, plotted as horizontal lines.
P-Value Estimation: Provides an approximate p-value to evaluate the statistical significance of the Z-score, displayed in a table anchored to the top-left corner.
Visual Representation: Plots the Z-score with a zero line and threshold lines for intuitive interpretation.
Adjustable Parameters
Asset A Symbol: Symbol for Asset A (default: CME_MINI:MNQ1!).
Asset B Symbol: Symbol for Asset B (default: CME_MINI:MES1!).
Z-Score Lookback: Lookback period for Z-score calculation (default: 40, minimum 2).
Base Entry Threshold: Threshold for entry signals (default: 1.8, adjustable with a step of 0.1).
Base Exit Threshold: Threshold for exit signals (default: 0.5, adjustable with a step of 0.1).
Threshold Offset (+/-): Offset to adjust entry and exit thresholds symmetrically (default: 0.0, range -5.0 to 5.0, step 0.1).
Usage
Add the indicator to your chart via the "Indicators" tab.
Customize the parameters based on your preferred assets and trading strategy (lookback period, thresholds, offset).
Observe the Z-score plot and threshold lines (red for short entry, green for long entry, orange dotted for exits) to identify potential trade setups.
Check the p-value table in the top-left corner to assess the statistical significance of the current Z-score.
Use this data to inform mean-reversion trading decisions, ideally in conjunction with other indicators.
Notes
A Z-score above the entry threshold (positive) or below the negative entry threshold suggests a potential short or long entry, respectively. Exits are signaled when the Z-score crosses the exit thresholds.
The p-value is an approximation based on the normal distribution; a value below 0.05 typically indicates statistical significance, but further validation is recommended.
The indicator uses a simple spread (Asset A - Asset B) without volatility adjustments; consider pairing it with a lots calculator for hedging.
Limitations
The p-value is an approximation and may not reflect advanced statistical tests (e.g., ADF) due to Pine Script constraints.
No automatic trading signals are generated; it provides data for manual analysis.
Author
Developed by grogusama, October 15, 2025, 07:29 PM CEST.
HTF Candles with PVSRA Volume Coloring (PCS Series)This indicator displays higher timeframe (HTF) candles using a PVSRA-inspired color model that blends price and volume strength, allowing traders to visualize higher-timeframe activity directly on lower-timeframe charts without switching screens.
OVERVIEW
This script visualizes higher-timeframe (HTF) candles directly on lower-timeframe charts using a custom PVSRA (Price, Volume & Support/Resistance Analysis) color model.
Unlike standard HTF indicators, it aggregates real-time OHLC and volume data bar-by-bar and dynamically draws synthetic HTF candles that update as the higher-timeframe bar evolves.
This allows traders to interpret momentum, trend continuation, and volume pressure from broader market structures without switching charts.
INTEGRATION LOGIC
This script merges higher-timeframe candle projection with PVSRA volume analysis to provide a single, multi-timeframe momentum view.
The HTF structure reveals directional context, while PVSRA coloring exposes the underlying strength of buying and selling pressure.
By combining both, traders can see when a higher-timeframe candle is building with strong or weak volume, enabling more informed intraday decisions than either tool could offer alone.
HOW IT WORKS
Aggregates price data : Groups lower-timeframe bars to calculate higher-timeframe Open, High, Low, Close, and total Volume.
Applies PVSRA logic : Compares each HTF candle’s volume to the average of the last 10 bars:
• >200% of average = strong activity
• >150% of average = moderate activity
• ≤150% = normal activity
Assigns colors :
• Green/Blue = bullish high-volume
• Red/Fuchsia = bearish high-volume
• White/Gray = neutral or low-volume moves
Draws dynamic outlines : Outlines update live while the current HTF candle is forming.
Supports symbol override : Calculations can use another instrument for correlation analysis.
This multi-timeframe aggregation avoids repainting issues in request.security() and ensures accurate real-time HTF representation.
FEATURES
Dual HTF Display : Visualize two higher timeframes simultaneously (e.g., 4H and 1D).
Dynamic PVSRA Coloring : Volume-weighted candle colors reveal bullish or bearish dominance.
Customizable Layout : Adjust candle width, spacing, offset, and color schemes.
Candle Outlines : Highlight the forming HTF candle to monitor developing structure.
Symbol Override : Display HTF candles from another instrument for cross-analysis.
SETTINGS
HTF 1 & HTF 2 : enable/disable, set timeframes, choose label colors, show/hide outlines.
Number of Candles : choose how many HTF candles to plot (1–10).
Offset Position : distance to the right of the current price where HTF candles begin.
Spacing & Width : adjust separation and scaling of candle groups.
Show Wicks/Borders : toggle wick and border visibility.
PVSRA Colors : enable or disable volume-based coloring.
Symbol Override : use a secondary ticker for HTF data if desired.
USAGE TIPS
Set the indicator’s visual order to “Bring to front.”
Always choose HTFs higher than your active chart timeframe.
Use PVSRA colors to identify strong momentum and potential reversals.
Adjust candle spacing and width for your chart layout.
Outlines are not shown on chart timeframes below 5 minutes.
TRADING STRATEGY
Strategy Overview : Combine HTF structure and PVSRA volume signals to
• Identify zones of high institutional activity and potential reversals.
• Wait for confirmation through consolidation or a pullback to key levels.
• Trade in alignment with dominant higher-timeframe structure rather than chasing volatility.
Setup :
• Chart timeframe: lower (5m, 15m, 1H)
• HTF 1: 4H or 1D
• HTF 2: 1D or 1W
• PVSRA Colors: enabled
• Outlines: enabled
Entry Concept :
High-volume candles (green or red) often indicate market-maker activity , such zones often reflect liquidity absorption by larger players and are not necessarily ideal entry points.
Wait for the next consolidation or pullback toward a support or resistance level before acting.
Bullish scenario :
• After a high-volume or rejection candle near a low, price consolidates and forms a higher low.
• Enter long only when structure confirms strength above support.
Bearish scenario :
• After a high-volume or rejection candle near a top, price consolidates and forms a lower high.
• Enter short once resistance holds and momentum weakens.
Exit Guidelines :
• Exit when next HTF candle shifts in color or momentum fades.
• Exit if price structure breaks opposite to your trade direction.
• Always use stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Additional Tips :
• Never enter directly on strong green/red high-volume candles, these are usually areas of institutional absorption.
• Wait for market structure confirmation and volume normalization.
• Combine with RSI, moving averages, or support/resistance for timing.
• Avoid trading when HTF candles are mixed or low-volume (unclear bias).
• Outlines hidden below 5m charts.
Risk Management :
• Use stop-loss and take-profit on all positions.
• Limit risk to 1–2% per trade.
• Adjust position size for volatility.
FINAL NOTES
This script helps traders synchronize lower-timeframe execution with higher-timeframe momentum and volume dynamics.
Test it on demo before live use, and adjust settings to fit your trading style.
DISCLAIMER
This script is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
SUPPORT & UPDATES
Future improvements may include alert conditions and additional visualization modes. Feedback is welcome in the comments section.
CREDITS & LICENSE
Created by @seoco — open source for community learning.
Licensed under Mozilla Public License 2.0 .
Mean Reversion Oscillator [Alpha Extract]An advanced composite oscillator system specifically designed to identify extreme market conditions and high-probability mean reversion opportunities, combining five proven oscillators into a single, powerful analytical framework.
By integrating multiple momentum and volume-based indicators with sophisticated extreme level detection, this oscillator provides precise entry signals for contrarian trading strategies while filtering out false reversals through momentum confirmation.
🔶 Multi-Oscillator Composite Framework
Utilizes a comprehensive approach that combines Bollinger %B, RSI, Stochastic, Money Flow Index, and Williams %R into a unified composite score. This multi-dimensional analysis ensures robust signal generation by capturing different aspects of market extremes and momentum shifts.
// Weighted composite (equal weights)
normalized_bb = bb_percent
normalized_rsi = rsi
normalized_stoch = stoch_d_val
normalized_mfi = mfi
normalized_williams = williams_r
composite_raw = (normalized_bb + normalized_rsi + normalized_stoch + normalized_mfi + normalized_williams) / 5
composite = ta.sma(composite_raw, composite_smooth)
🔶 Advanced Extreme Level Detection
Features a sophisticated dual-threshold system that distinguishes between moderate and extreme market conditions. This hierarchical approach allows traders to identify varying degrees of mean reversion potential, from moderate oversold/overbought conditions to extreme levels that demand immediate attention.
🔶 Momentum Confirmation System
Incorporates a specialized momentum histogram that confirms mean reversion signals by analyzing the rate of change in the composite oscillator. This prevents premature entries during strong trending conditions while highlighting genuine reversal opportunities.
// Oscillator momentum (rate of change)
osc_momentum = ta.mom(composite, 5)
histogram = osc_momentum
// Momentum confirmation
momentum_bullish = histogram > histogram
momentum_bearish = histogram < histogram
// Confirmed signals
confirmed_bullish = bullish_entry and momentum_bullish
confirmed_bearish = bearish_entry and momentum_bearish
🔶 Dynamic Visual Intelligence
The oscillator line adapts its color intensity based on proximity to extreme levels, providing instant visual feedback about market conditions. Background shading creates clear zones that highlight when markets enter moderate or extreme territories.
🔶 Intelligent Signal Generation
Generates precise entry signals only when the composite oscillator crosses extreme thresholds with momentum confirmation. This dual-confirmation approach significantly reduces false signals while maintaining sensitivity to genuine mean reversion opportunities.
How It Works
🔶 Composite Score Calculation
The indicator simultaneously tracks five different oscillators, each normalized to a 0-100 scale, then combines them into a smoothed composite score. This approach eliminates the noise inherent in single-oscillator analysis while capturing the consensus view of multiple momentum indicators.
// Mean reversion entry signals
bullish_entry = ta.crossover(composite, 100 - extreme_level) and composite < (100 - extreme_level)
bearish_entry = ta.crossunder(composite, extreme_level) and composite > extreme_level
// Bollinger %B calculation
bb_basis = ta.sma(src, bb_length)
bb_dev = bb_mult * ta.stdev(src, bb_length)
bb_percent = (src - bb_lower) / (bb_upper - bb_lower) * 100
🔶 Extreme Zone Identification
The system automatically identifies when markets reach statistically significant extreme levels, both moderate (65/35) and extreme (80/20). These zones represent areas where mean reversion has the highest probability of success based on historical market behavior.
🔶 Momentum Histogram Analysis
A specialized momentum histogram tracks the velocity of oscillator changes, helping traders distinguish between healthy corrections and potential trend reversals. The histogram's color-coded display makes momentum shifts immediately apparent.
🔶 Divergence Detection Framework
Built-in divergence analysis identifies situations where price and oscillator movements diverge, often signaling impending reversals. Diamond-shaped markers highlight these critical divergence patterns for enhanced pattern recognition.
🔶 Real-Time Information Dashboard
An integrated information table provides instant access to current oscillator readings, market status, and individual component values. This dashboard eliminates the need to manually check multiple indicators while trading.
🔶 Individual Component Display
Optional display of individual oscillator components allows traders to understand which specific indicators are driving the composite signal. This transparency enables more informed decision-making and deeper market analysis.
🔶 Adaptive Background Coloring
Intelligent background shading automatically adjusts based on market conditions, creating visual zones that correspond to different levels of mean reversion potential. The subtle color gradations make pattern recognition effortless.
1D
3D
🔶 Comprehensive Alert System
Multi-tier alert system covers confirmed entry signals, divergence patterns, and extreme level breaches. Each alert type provides specific context about the detected condition, enabling traders to respond appropriately to different signal strengths.
🔶 Customizable Threshold Management
Fully adjustable extreme and moderate levels allow traders to fine-tune the indicator's sensitivity to match different market volatilities and trading timeframes. This flexibility ensures optimal performance across various market conditions.
🔶 Why Choose AE - Mean Reversion Oscillator?
This indicator provides the most comprehensive approach to mean reversion trading by combining multiple proven oscillators with advanced confirmation mechanisms. By offering clear visual hierarchies for different extreme levels and requiring momentum confirmation for signals, it empowers traders to identify high-probability contrarian opportunities while avoiding false reversals. The sophisticated composite methodology ensures that signals are both statistically significant and practically actionable, making it an essential tool for traders focused on mean reversion strategies across all market conditions.
Historical Matrix Analyzer [PhenLabs]📊Historical Matrix Analyzer
Version: PineScriptv6
📌Description
The Historical Matrix Analyzer is an advanced probabilistic trading tool that transforms technical analysis into a data-driven decision support system. By creating a comprehensive 56-cell matrix that tracks every combination of RSI states and multi-indicator conditions, this indicator reveals which market patterns have historically led to profitable outcomes and which have not.
At its core, the indicator continuously monitors seven distinct RSI states (ranging from Extreme Oversold to Extreme Overbought) and eight unique indicator combinations (MACD direction, volume levels, and price momentum). For each of these 56 possible market states, the system calculates average forward returns, win rates, and occurrence counts based on your configurable lookback period. The result is a color-coded probability matrix that shows you exactly where you stand in the historical performance landscape.
The standout feature is the Current State Panel, which provides instant clarity on your active market conditions. This panel displays signal strength classifications (from Strong Bullish to Strong Bearish), the average return percentage for similar past occurrences, an estimated win rate using Bayesian smoothing to prevent small-sample distortions, and a confidence level indicator that warns you when insufficient data exists for reliable conclusions.
🚀Points of Innovation
Multi-dimensional state classification combining 7 RSI levels with 8 indicator combinations for 56 unique trackable market conditions
Bayesian win rate estimation with adjustable smoothing strength to provide stable probability estimates even with limited historical samples
Real-time active cell highlighting with “NOW” marker that visually connects current market conditions to their historical performance data
Configurable color intensity sensitivity allowing traders to adjust heat-map responsiveness from conservative to aggressive visual feedback
Dual-panel display system separating the comprehensive statistics matrix from an easy-to-read current state summary panel
Intelligent confidence scoring that automatically warns traders when occurrence counts fall below reliable thresholds
🔧Core Components
RSI State Classification: Segments RSI readings into 7 distinct zones (Extreme Oversold <20, Oversold 20-30, Weak 30-40, Neutral 40-60, Strong 60-70, Overbought 70-80, Extreme Overbought >80) to capture momentum extremes and transitions
Multi-Indicator Condition Tracking: Simultaneously monitors MACD crossover status (bullish/bearish), volume relative to moving average (high/low), and price direction (rising/falling) creating 8 binary-encoded combinations
Historical Data Storage Arrays: Maintains rolling lookback windows storing RSI states, indicator states, prices, and bar indices for precise forward-return calculations
Forward Performance Calculator: Measures price changes over configurable forward bar periods (1-20 bars) from each historical state, accumulating total returns and win counts per matrix cell
Bayesian Smoothing Engine: Applies statistical prior assumptions (default 50% win rate) weighted by user-defined strength parameter to stabilize estimated win rates when sample sizes are small
Dynamic Color Mapping System: Converts average returns into color-coded heat map with intensity adjusted by sensitivity parameter and transparency modified by confidence levels
🔥Key Features
56-Cell Probability Matrix: Comprehensive grid displaying every possible combination of RSI state and indicator condition, with each cell showing average return percentage, estimated win rate, and occurrence count for complete statistical visibility
Current State Info Panel: Dedicated display showing your exact position in the matrix with signal strength emoji indicators, numerical statistics, and color-coded confidence warnings for immediate situational awareness
Customizable Lookback Period: Adjustable historical window from 50 to 500 bars allowing traders to focus on recent market behavior or capture longer-term pattern stability across different market cycles
Configurable Forward Performance Window: Select target holding periods from 1 to 20 bars ahead to align probability calculations with your trading timeframe, whether day trading or swing trading
Visual Heat Mapping: Color-coded cells transition from red (bearish historical performance) through gray (neutral) to green (bullish performance) with intensity reflecting statistical significance and occurrence frequency
Intelligent Data Filtering: Minimum occurrence threshold (1-10) removes unreliable patterns with insufficient historical samples, displaying gray warning colors for low-confidence cells
Flexible Layout Options: Independent positioning of statistics matrix and info panel to any screen corner, accommodating different chart layouts and personal preferences
Tooltip Details: Hover over any matrix cell to see full RSI label, complete indicator status description, precise average return, estimated win rate, and total occurrence count
🎨Visualization
Statistics Matrix Table: A 9-column by 8-row grid with RSI states labeling vertical axis and indicator combinations on horizontal axis, using compact abbreviations (XOverS, OverB, MACD↑, Vol↓, P↑) for space efficiency
Active Cell Indicator: The current market state cell displays “⦿ NOW ⦿” in yellow text with enhanced color saturation to immediately draw attention to relevant historical performance
Signal Strength Visualization: Info panel uses emoji indicators (🔥 Strong Bullish, ✅ Bullish, ↗️ Weak Bullish, ➖ Neutral, ↘️ Weak Bearish, ⛔ Bearish, ❄️ Strong Bearish, ⚠️ Insufficient Data) for rapid interpretation
Histogram Plot: Below the price chart, a green/red histogram displays the current cell’s average return percentage, providing a time-series view of how historical performance changes as market conditions evolve
Color Intensity Scaling: Cell background transparency and saturation dynamically adjust based on both the magnitude of average returns and the occurrence count, ensuring visual emphasis on reliable patterns
Confidence Level Display: Info panel bottom row shows “High Confidence” (green), “Medium Confidence” (orange), or “Low Confidence” (red) based on occurrence counts relative to minimum threshold multipliers
📖Usage Guidelines
RSI Period
Default: 14
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Controls the lookback period for RSI momentum calculation. Standard 14-period provides widely-recognized overbought/oversold levels. Decrease for faster, more sensitive RSI reactions suitable for scalping. Increase (21, 28) for smoother, longer-term momentum assessment in swing trading. Changes affect how quickly the indicator moves between the 7 RSI state classifications.
MACD Fast Length
Default: 12
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Sets the faster exponential moving average for MACD calculation. Standard 12-period setting works well for daily charts and captures short-term momentum shifts. Decreasing creates more responsive MACD crossovers but increases false signals. Increasing smooths out noise but delays signal generation, affecting the bullish/bearish indicator state classification.
MACD Slow Length
Default: 26
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Defines the slower exponential moving average for MACD calculation. Traditional 26-period setting balances trend identification with responsiveness. Must be greater than Fast Length. Wider spread between fast and slow increases MACD sensitivity to trend changes, impacting the frequency of indicator state transitions in the matrix.
MACD Signal Length
Default: 9
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Smoothing period for the MACD signal line that triggers bullish/bearish state changes. Standard 9-period provides reliable crossover signals. Shorter values create more frequent state changes and earlier signals but with more whipsaws. Longer values produce more confirmed, stable signals but with increased lag in detecting momentum shifts.
Volume MA Period
Default: 20
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Lookback period for volume moving average used to classify volume as “high” or “low” in indicator state combinations. 20-period default captures typical monthly trading patterns. Shorter periods (10-15) make volume classification more reactive to recent spikes. Longer periods (30-50) require more sustained volume changes to trigger state classification shifts.
Statistics Lookback Period
Default: 200
Range: 50 to 500
Description: Number of historical bars used to calculate matrix statistics. 200 bars provides substantial data for reliable patterns while remaining responsive to regime changes. Lower values (50-100) emphasize recent market behavior and adapt quickly but may produce volatile statistics. Higher values (300-500) capture long-term patterns with stable statistics but slower adaptation to changing market dynamics.
Forward Performance Bars
Default: 5
Range: 1 to 20
Description: Number of bars ahead used to calculate forward returns from each historical state occurrence. 5-bar default suits intraday to short-term swing trading (5 hours on hourly charts, 1 week on daily charts). Lower values (1-3) target short-term momentum trades. Higher values (10-20) align with position trading and longer-term pattern exploitation.
Color Intensity Sensitivity
Default: 2.0
Range: 0.5 to 5.0, step 0.5
Description: Amplifies or dampens the color intensity response to average return magnitudes in the matrix heat map. 2.0 default provides balanced visual emphasis. Lower values (0.5-1.0) create subtle coloring requiring larger returns for full saturation, useful for volatile instruments. Higher values (3.0-5.0) produce vivid colors from smaller returns, highlighting subtle edges in range-bound markets.
Minimum Occurrences for Coloring
Default: 3
Range: 1 to 10
Description: Required minimum sample size before applying color-coded performance to matrix cells. Cells with fewer occurrences display gray “insufficient data” warning. 3-occurrence default filters out rare patterns. Lower threshold (1-2) shows more data but includes unreliable single-event statistics. Higher thresholds (5-10) ensure only well-established patterns receive visual emphasis.
Table Position
Default: top_right
Options: top_left, top_right, bottom_left, bottom_right
Description: Screen location for the 56-cell statistics matrix table. Position to avoid overlapping critical price action or other indicators on your chart. Consider chart orientation and candlestick density when selecting optimal placement.
Show Current State Panel
Default: true
Options: true, false
Description: Toggle visibility of the dedicated current state information panel. When enabled, displays signal strength, RSI value, indicator status, average return, estimated win rate, and confidence level for active market conditions. Disable to declutter charts when only the matrix table is needed.
Info Panel Position
Default: bottom_left
Options: top_left, top_right, bottom_left, bottom_right
Description: Screen location for the current state information panel (when enabled). Position independently from statistics matrix to optimize chart real estate. Typically placed opposite the matrix table for balanced visual layout.
Win Rate Smoothing Strength
Default: 5
Range: 1 to 20
Description: Controls Bayesian prior weighting for estimated win rate calculations. Acts as virtual sample size assuming 50% win rate baseline. Default 5 provides moderate smoothing preventing extreme win rate estimates from small samples. Lower values (1-3) reduce smoothing effect, allowing win rates to reflect raw data more directly. Higher values (10-20) increase conservatism, pulling win rate estimates toward 50% until substantial evidence accumulates.
✅Best Use Cases
Pattern-based discretionary trading where you want historical confirmation before entering setups that “look good” based on current technical alignment
Swing trading with holding periods matching your forward performance bar setting, using high-confidence bullish cells as entry filters
Risk assessment and position sizing, allocating larger size to trades originating from cells with strong positive average returns and high estimated win rates
Market regime identification by observing which RSI states and indicator combinations are currently producing the most reliable historical patterns
Backtesting validation by comparing your manual strategy signals against the historical performance of the corresponding matrix cells
Educational tool for developing intuition about which technical condition combinations have actually worked versus those that feel right but lack historical evidence
⚠️Limitations
Historical patterns do not guarantee future performance, especially during unprecedented market events or regime changes not represented in the lookback period
Small sample sizes (low occurrence counts) produce unreliable statistics despite Bayesian smoothing, requiring caution when acting on low-confidence cells
Matrix statistics lag behind rapidly changing market conditions, as the lookback period must accumulate new state occurrences before updating performance data
Forward return calculations use fixed bar periods that may not align with actual trade exit timing, support/resistance levels, or volatility-adjusted profit targets
💡What Makes This Unique
Multi-Dimensional State Space: Unlike single-indicator tools, simultaneously tracks 56 distinct market condition combinations providing granular pattern resolution unavailable in traditional technical analysis
Bayesian Statistical Rigor: Implements proper probabilistic smoothing to prevent overconfidence from limited data, a critical feature missing from most pattern recognition tools
Real-Time Contextual Feedback: The “NOW” marker and dedicated info panel instantly connect current market conditions to their historical performance profile, eliminating guesswork
Transparent Occurrence Counts: Displays sample sizes directly in each cell, allowing traders to judge statistical reliability themselves rather than hiding data quality issues
Fully Customizable Analysis Window: Complete control over lookback depth and forward return horizons lets traders align the tool precisely with their trading timeframe and strategy requirements
🔬How It Works
1. State Classification and Encoding
Each bar’s RSI value is evaluated and assigned to one of 7 discrete states based on threshold levels (0: <20, 1: 20-30, 2: 30-40, 3: 40-60, 4: 60-70, 5: 70-80, 6: >80)
Simultaneously, three binary conditions are evaluated: MACD line position relative to signal line, current volume relative to its moving average, and current close relative to previous close
These three binary conditions are combined into a single indicator state integer (0-7) using binary encoding, creating 8 possible indicator combinations
The RSI state and indicator state are stored together, defining one of 56 possible market condition cells in the matrix
2. Historical Data Accumulation
As each bar completes, the current state classification, closing price, and bar index are stored in rolling arrays maintained at the size specified by the lookback period
When the arrays reach capacity, the oldest data point is removed and the newest added, creating a sliding historical window
This continuous process builds a comprehensive database of past market conditions and their subsequent price movements
3. Forward Return Calculation and Statistics Update
On each bar, the indicator looks back through the stored historical data to find bars where sufficient forward bars exist to measure outcomes
For each historical occurrence, the price change from that bar to the bar N periods ahead (where N is the forward performance bars setting) is calculated as a percentage return
This percentage return is added to the cumulative return total for the specific matrix cell corresponding to that historical bar’s state classification
Occurrence counts are incremented, and wins are tallied for positive returns, building comprehensive statistics for each of the 56 cells
The Bayesian smoothing formula combines these raw statistics with prior assumptions (neutral 50% win rate) weighted by the smoothing strength parameter to produce estimated win rates that remain stable even with small samples
💡Note:
The Historical Matrix Analyzer is designed as a decision support tool, not a standalone trading system. Best results come from using it to validate discretionary trade ideas or filter systematic strategy signals. Always combine matrix insights with proper risk management, position sizing rules, and awareness of broader market context. The estimated win rate feature uses Bayesian statistics specifically to prevent false confidence from limited data, but no amount of smoothing can create reliable predictions from fundamentally insufficient sample sizes. Focus on high-confidence cells (green-colored confidence indicators) with occurrence counts well above your minimum threshold for the most actionable insights.
