AMD: Additional Upside through June 13th
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This is a much bigger impulse than I could have imagined. I am speculating that there will be additional upside to the 85.4% fib retracement level at 139.99 (retracement from the 164 top), which will top out by approximately 6/13. Continued upside must be necessary because the 3rd wave created in the current structure is the shortest; therefore, it must be creating a 3rd wave extension with a total of 9 waves for the entire impulse. This leaves 3 more waves to develop- wave 5 of 3, wave 4, and wave 5.
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I'm assuming a 5 wave structure is going to finish out wave 4 of 3, and the bottom should not go far below the 61.8% retracement level of wave 3 of 3 at 114.79.
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Yesterday's rally proved to be a 5th wave failure after today's complete 100% retracement. I had to change my count a bit, but I am still expecting an additional wave to the upside to top out around June 13th. Today's price action might have completed wave 4, and I will be looking for a double top rather than a rally to the 85.4% retracement of the 164 top at 139.99.
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Now that the extended wave 3 has finished with a 5th wave failure, we have some additional fib measurements. The 61.8% fib extension of wave 1 is 133.26. The 61.8% fib extension of wave 3 is 140.36. I am assuming that price will end somewhere in this range. In terms of time, the fib extension of wave 1 at 61.8% is June 12 @ 1:30pm and the 100% is June 14 @ 10.50am.
There's still an off chance that wave 4 hasn't completed (I haven't seen a clean 3 waves), but I would be surprised if that's the case because we don't have much time left to completion (unless I'm wrong). Good luck!
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In the event wave 4 is not complete. I will simply ride it out if this scenario happens. It will move all the measurements down and forward, but I wouldn't think by much. I would still expect the structure to top out some time next week.
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Remember to protect your profits.Bình luận
Unfortunately, I think we finished a strong B. If this is the case, we should expect 5 waves down to finish wave 4. Then we'll have our 3 wave completion. Wave 5 may still be elusive, but should start once wave c is finished.
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I wasn't expecting a gap up this morning. I was assuming we would have seen a more full wave c. At this point, I am still under the impression that the decline on Friday was a wave c, but was stunted, much like the wave 5 failure we just witnessed.
I will be looking for 5 waves to complete this whole structure from the 81 low. Once in the 130's, I will be expecting a steep decline in the market in general, and will be looking at a short position to challenge the 100 level or possibly lower.
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After some deliberation, at this point, I'm pretty convinced this rally is a very strong wave b, which is corrective in nature. The structure does not look right as an impulse imo. I am also not happy with not seeing a concise 3 waves for wave 4.
Once this rally finishes, I will measure with the assumption that price action is going into a temporary decline to wave c, and that wave 5 will develop afterwards with a likely target still around the same levels discussed before (pinpointing 140).
Tomorrow will reveal more information about what kind of structure is currently developing and whether we have one more rally or not.
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With the assumption this is going to be a wave c, price targets include the 100% fib ext at 124.04 and 161.8% at 118.91. For time, we've got the 100% at 6/14 @ 9:40am and 161.8% at 6/14 @ 13:50.
Coincidentally, 118.91 fills the immediate gaps down to 120 and 13:50 is right before the Fed releases its minutes. I am thinking we rally into wave 5 around that time with a target of 140 and 6/23/23.
I am not implementing a short position here, but will trade long again after closing my position early. Hoping for the 119 level.
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5th wave of a terminal c probably in progress. Once this completes, I will be speculating for the last impulse in the overall structure. Still with a target around 140.
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New targets if we saw the bottom of what I am considering wave 4 of the entire impulse. Tomorrow should see a significant spike. If not, we have not bottomed yet, but will do so shortly.
My targets are now between 140 and 148 for price, and 6/22-6/23 for time to finish the 5th wave.
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Unfortunately, I was expecting the price floor to hold, but it looks like we will be getting a partial gap fill at a minimum. This current move down appears to be a disgusting looking terminal c wave. Its next target would either be at the 261.8% fib ext level near 111 or possibly the bottom of the small channel. This one is difficult to measure.
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I've updated the count for the possible wave 4 structure. If price action continues to drop tomorrow, breaking down below 111, then I will start to lean towards invalidation of the impulse. The count error would have probably been made at the structure I am considering a strong wave-b (in between the yellow channel). Continuation to the downside could threaten that structure was actually a wave-5 (which ended on June 13th as the original forecast suggested), and that's how I would update my count in that scenario.
I still like it as a strong wave-b, and I don't necessarily like the current downside structure as a wave-1. It looks better as a terminal-c, in my opinion.
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Nothing goes down in a straight line and when a recovery to the upside begins, it will have to be decided whether its a wave-5 looking for a new high, or if its a corrective wave-2 and downside continuation is to follow.
Personally, I will be looking at any rallies from here with suspicion as I was not expecting the gap to be filled until after the wave-c impulse was over. Invalidation of the prospective wave-4 is below 105.64, so any recoveries before this point will still validate a possible wave-5. The gap fill completion is at 108.91, which price appears keen on filling.
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See chart.
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A closer look at the possible wave 5 structure. I can clearly see 7 waves. This would give it a pattern of a-b-c-x-a-b-c, which is corrective. This is why I refused to believe it was a 5 wave impulse even though it met my fib estimate of price and time.
Currently, as noted before, this drop seems too far down to be a wave 4 and I am currently leaning towards downside continuation. Once we get the recovery I expect for a possible wave 2, I will start a new thread for my short trade. Good luck!
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I believe the bear has reemerged and I am expecting a broad based tech decline to follow for the rest of 2023 and through the 1st quarter of 2024. Once I initiate my short trade, I will start a new thread to continue my analysis of price action for AMD.
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I'm pretty comfortable with the expectation that price drops from here; it's just a matter of when. I have began to initiate my short position and will update with a new thread either tonight or tomorrow. The question from here is whether the 3 waves are hidden within the channel, or if we break out of the channel to the downside, then have an additional retracement for wave-c before we drop into wave-3, to make the corrective wave more distinctive.
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