The most significant decline in ARKK's history

17 thg 1, 2022

Today we will take a look at ARKK. The main element we have to comment on is the current decline, the biggest in the ETF history.

The current drawdown is at 51%, and we have three other situations in the past where we observed declines of 30% or more.

Here are some key ideas you can use to increase the odds of engaging on a successful setup on the ETF, assuming that eventually, we will have a new bull run.

* AVOID trading below the descending trendline. A trendline is telling you something "above assume X, below assume Y" in this case, the price is clearly below the descending trendline. Therefore we should avoid any type of swing setup mainly because there are no signs that the current bearish trend has finished. If we have to take a really bad scenario for the ETF based on the current technical elements, we can observe a -60% decline with a major bearish target on the highs of 2020.

* Study the 3 previous scenarios. IF you want to catch the next massive movement of the ETF, then you need to study how the transition happened in the past, where the price was on a severe drawdown, and then we saw new impulses. So, if you want to understand what's going on, start studying the previous 3 scenarios and look for patterns.

My current view is that assuming the trending characteristic this asset has, I'm more than interested in developing swing setups here. However, at the moment, I'm WAITING; my two filters are:

1) The price has reached the major bearish target at 62-61 (start thinking in bullish opportunities)
2) The price is getting close to breaking the descending trendline (start thinking in bullish opportunities)

Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view in the comments.