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Australia's China Problem....
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This is a medium-term outlook on AUD/USD
Fundamentals:
AUD/USD - Bearish
Australia's economy and their currency is still in a relatively weak position relative to the US economy regardless of whether they hiked rates above market consensus by 50 basis points recently. Compared to the US Fed and looking at the medium-term, this will not outpace the US Fed's rate hike cycle. Australia cannot continue to raise rates. They are trapped:
Australia is heavily effected by demand from China that are not importing from them. This puts a damper on their economy. This is very negative for the medium-term. The Aussie currency should continue to weaken against the US dollar to about 0.6700.
Technicals:
Bearish
Fundamentals:
AUD/USD - Bearish
Australia's economy and their currency is still in a relatively weak position relative to the US economy regardless of whether they hiked rates above market consensus by 50 basis points recently. Compared to the US Fed and looking at the medium-term, this will not outpace the US Fed's rate hike cycle. Australia cannot continue to raise rates. They are trapped:
Australia is heavily effected by demand from China that are not importing from them. This puts a damper on their economy. This is very negative for the medium-term. The Aussie currency should continue to weaken against the US dollar to about 0.6700.
Technicals:
Bearish
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AUDCAD update in addition to AUDUSD:
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