AUDUSD 6 to 1 returns

23 thg 10, 2018

Fundamentally this AUDUSD been down trending due to slowdown in growth in China. Some of the slowdown in China is due to confidence collapsing due to trade tensions with the US, but yet to see any hard evidence of tariffs impacting Chinese companies. Interestingly in Q3, tariffs have boosted Chinese manufacturing and exports as companies front run the effects of Tariffs. Suggesting that the slowdown in China is natural... when the tariffs start hurting Chinese companies could slow down growth even further. RBA recently opted to keep rates on hold and forward guidance neutral...
Premise for this trade is that this market is over sold and to play a bounce to the upside when this trendline breaks...

Technically, market is downtrending however oversold although the RSI reading isnt at the lows (arguably divergence here) so plan is to keep playing the downtrend until the trend line breaks. Too early to look for the long yet.
Notice major support 7150 level, if price pushes agressivley above here and then breaks the trendline would play the market back up towards 7400-7450 as I think more downside for this market due to ongoing slowdown in China growth. Trade offers 6 to 1 returns