AUD bears eye break below 65c, but a bounce could be due first

Risk aversion reigns supreme, casting a dark cloud over AUD/USD just before today’s employment report drops. A stellar jobs report is unlikely to spark calls for an imminent RBA hike, but it might prompt some short covering on the Aussie.

Besides, there are early signs of stability above the 65c zone with Wednesday’s lower wick, which saw a false break of the lower keltner band. Perhaps some mean reversions is due.
Bulls could seek dips towards 65c with a stop below and initially target the 200-day MA – a break above which assumes a deeper retracement and relief rally for global stocks. However, given our bias for the US dollar remains bullish over the weeks ahead, bears may want to seek evidence of a swing high forming below 0.6650 before committing to fresh shorts. A break beneath 65c brings 0.6370 into focus.

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A bearish outside day has formed around the 200-day EMA, NZD/USD has closed to new cycle lows beneath its 100/200-day EMAs and Wall Street indices posted dubious candles at record highs on Monday. So this bounce may have run its course, assuming sentiment sours from here.