AUDUSD Sell Potential

17 thg 5, 2023

Here is the framework for these two sell setups:

Weekly:
-we remain bearish, albeit the ranging markets and consolidating behavior
-the pair has been trapped between 0.68000 and 0.66000 key institutional levels for the last 10 weeks!
-this implies that most of the price action within these two levels has been in a bid to collect orders and liquidity for when the pair finally breaks out of the consolidation parameters- whether to the upside
or the downside.

Daily:
-I have noted a head and shoulder pattern on the daily amidst the choppy price action.
-this pattern is bound to play out in the course of the next few weeks. I simply remain aware of it without using it as a confluence or core reason for my current bias.

H4:
-we swung strongly to the downside from 0.68183, precisely, all the way to the most current market lows at 0.66286.
-we have since then retraced to the 38.2% fib level and,
-according to my assessment, are bound to create a double top at this level

Midrange: M15 TO H1
-we are bearish.
-we have, however, also been in range within this time frame
-we harvested the Tuesday and Monday low respectively in the course of the Asian session on 17.05
-we also tapped into the weekly low set last week at 0.66362 and had a clean rejection to the upside after tapping this liquidity
-current price action indicates that we have the Monday and Tuesday highs sitting amply at 0.67087 and 0.6798 respectively.
-the two highs portend a source of liquidity for the pair

Fundamentals":
-the Australia employment figures come in at 4.30am (UTC+3)
-IF price ends up pushing north to harvest the aforementioned highs, I will be inclined to sell the pair with the following confluences:
1. we have an institutional level, 0.67000 where institutions are bound to place sell orders on the pair from
2. the Monday and Tuesday highs will have been neutralized to provide the needed fuel to drive price south
3. H4 will have formed a Moolah/double-top around the 38.2% fib level on its swing. This will allow the pair a double rejection incentive to sell off the aforementioned highs
4. the weekly low at 0.66060 remains my area of target for the pair as we seek to collect liquidity off the lows

Based on these confluences and the market environment, I am comfortable selling the pair with the right price rejection around 0.67150 on two fronts:
a) sell on the intraday and aim for 0.66400, the most recent visible demand level where price might be limited in breaking
b) due to a continuation on H4, I intend to sell all the way to 0.66000, owing to the -27% extension that sits at 0.65876 as well as the aforementioned weekly low acting as incentive for sells at 0.66060.

NOTE: all this is just my opinion and not financial advice. Analyze the market yourself and place trades based on your own biases and conclusions.