PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 MAY 2023
We are near all time high on 
BANKNIFTY - 44151.7 is today's high. The previous high was 44151.8 on 14 Dec 2022. The lowest point was 38613.15 ~ -12.45% on 16 Mar 2023. Numbers are magically adding up, 3 months from High to Low and then exactly 2 months to reclaim the top spot.
From the chart you can notice that once we broke the bearish trend line, the rally came fast & furious. i.e from 11th Apr to 15th May we rallied 3116 pts ~ 7.6%. For traders who monitor the break-out rally - they would have followed this trend.
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Daily Analysis
Today's price action was rather surprising, BJP the ruling party in Karnataka was toppled by Congress with a good majority. News like this should be negative - yet our markets were rallying - incredible bulls.
I am not at all interested in politics, but today's move in
NIFTY, 
CNXIT and FinNifty shows 2024 Lok Sabha elections might be won by Congress itself.
From a price action perspective we had a steady up day, there was only 1 minor pull back between 14.15 to 14.25 but that too got bought into. Volumes were also aiding long bias.
The credit spread that were getting written in the last 30 to 45 mts were really crazy. Positioning wise more people are favoring further upside as interpreted from the OI data. Tomorrow's Finnifty expiry might be interesting as most of the traders are already euphoric, the premiums may spike unusually tomorrow.
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15 mts TF shows the bullish bias quite clearly today. Since we are the top already, there is no more technical analysis that can be done from a resistance perspective.
The nearest support 43253 is 800 points below, soBANKNIFTY is quite in a sweet spot.
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1hr has made consecutive higher-highs after breaking out from the range. Again we are the top most level and I am quite scared to make any further direction guess. It will be lot better to react to the market once it has decided where it wants to go.
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NIFTY even though was looking more positive than bank nifty till 13.15, was not able to breakthrough the resistance of 18419. On the hourly candle Nifty made consecutive 5 candles, the 5th candle had closed right above this SR level.
But the 14.15 candle gave away those gains -0.34%. I think it is not a bad idea to shift to Nifty50 trading for 2 weeks as we have strong support & resistance level marked. I prefer to trade in a range than trade breakouts & breakdowns.
BANKNIFTY - 44151.7 is today's high. The previous high was 44151.8 on 14 Dec 2022. The lowest point was 38613.15 ~ -12.45% on 16 Mar 2023. Numbers are magically adding up, 3 months from High to Low and then exactly 2 months to reclaim the top spot.From the chart you can notice that once we broke the bearish trend line, the rally came fast & furious. i.e from 11th Apr to 15th May we rallied 3116 pts ~ 7.6%. For traders who monitor the break-out rally - they would have followed this trend.
---
Daily Analysis
Today's price action was rather surprising, BJP the ruling party in Karnataka was toppled by Congress with a good majority. News like this should be negative - yet our markets were rallying - incredible bulls.
I am not at all interested in politics, but today's move in
NIFTY, CNXIT and FinNifty shows 2024 Lok Sabha elections might be won by Congress itself. From a price action perspective we had a steady up day, there was only 1 minor pull back between 14.15 to 14.25 but that too got bought into. Volumes were also aiding long bias.
The credit spread that were getting written in the last 30 to 45 mts were really crazy. Positioning wise more people are favoring further upside as interpreted from the OI data. Tomorrow's Finnifty expiry might be interesting as most of the traders are already euphoric, the premiums may spike unusually tomorrow.
---
15 mts TF shows the bullish bias quite clearly today. Since we are the top already, there is no more technical analysis that can be done from a resistance perspective.
The nearest support 43253 is 800 points below, so
BANKNIFTY is quite in a sweet spot. ---
1hr has made consecutive higher-highs after breaking out from the range. Again we are the top most level and I am quite scared to make any further direction guess. It will be lot better to react to the market once it has decided where it wants to go.
---
NIFTY even though was looking more positive than bank nifty till 13.15, was not able to breakthrough the resistance of 18419. On the hourly candle Nifty made consecutive 5 candles, the 5th candle had closed right above this SR level.But the 14.15 candle gave away those gains -0.34%. I think it is not a bad idea to shift to Nifty50 trading for 2 weeks as we have strong support & resistance level marked. I prefer to trade in a range than trade breakouts & breakdowns.
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