Mid-Term (2/3 months) Analysis for BTC CME FUTURES

26 thg 1, 2022

Here is a trend analysis based on objective thoughts - Not Financial Advice

The current price action on the whole crypto market is driven by the macro factors:
_ Political/economic tensions in Russia and Ukraine (long-term and potential high-risk effect on the markets)
_ Global Supply Chain shortages (latent risk impacting the commodities market and purchasing power as a mid-term potential effect for any consumer)
_ FOMC announcements about inflation and interest rates (01/26-01/27)
_ IMF action and determination to bother El Salvador with the BTC as a legal tender

BEARISH SCENARIO:
So either those factors turn bearish then it is likely for BTC to continue its current downtrend and fill at least the next gap (orange one) or if the world is going into more troubles with Russia and Ukraine tensions we could fill the red box which would means a bear market (will be detailed in another analysis)

BULLISH SCENARIO:
FOMC announcements are bringing confidence to the markets:
_ $32,800-$34,000 is the bottom, the BTC will sideline few weeks before to confirm a trend reversal above $44-45,000 mark before to consolidate. Then, BTC could have a continuation bullish trend to $69,000 and beyond within 2022
_ The gap in orange is quickly filled on a violent 4H or 1D candle to wash more leveraged long postions on the market before a bounce back to 30K-32K region and consolidate in sideways in the 30-45K channel before to decide another direction.

As long as BTC doesn't close a daily candle below 30-32K, IMHO, the BTC should have enough buying pressure to keep the uptrend long-term channel. Otherwise, we would be able to call a bear market for good.