This Weekly chart includes two indicators: VWAP and RSI
The VWAP is set to the Century timeframe, with deviation bands set at 1 and .5
The Blue verticle lines are the BTC halvings. The gray verticle lines are the Cycle bottoms. The gray verticle lines also indicate the weekly RSI bottoms, at around 28+/-
One can see that the primary support band for the bottom in Jan '15 and Dec '18 was the
Century VWAP .5 deviation
And once the price moved below the Century VWAP 1 Deviation. The bottom was found within 3 and 4 weeks, respectively.
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My speculation:
We bounce this week, temporarily pulling the weekly RSI back above 30. (USD is topping out with 4 hour oversold and Daily Bearish Divergence on the RSI.) We range above the 1 Deviation. (Likely finding the 26 Week MA as resistance.) In the next 2-6 weeks, we lose the 1 Deviation support. We then test the .5 Deviation for support, finding our bottom in the $14k+/- region.
The 1 Deviation holds as Resistance. We then range within the .5 and 1 Deviation bands for 3-6 months.
We then break back above the 1 Deviation.
The VWAP is set to the Century timeframe, with deviation bands set at 1 and .5
The Blue verticle lines are the BTC halvings. The gray verticle lines are the Cycle bottoms. The gray verticle lines also indicate the weekly RSI bottoms, at around 28+/-
One can see that the primary support band for the bottom in Jan '15 and Dec '18 was the
Century VWAP .5 deviation
And once the price moved below the Century VWAP 1 Deviation. The bottom was found within 3 and 4 weeks, respectively.
--
My speculation:
We bounce this week, temporarily pulling the weekly RSI back above 30. (USD is topping out with 4 hour oversold and Daily Bearish Divergence on the RSI.) We range above the 1 Deviation. (Likely finding the 26 Week MA as resistance.) In the next 2-6 weeks, we lose the 1 Deviation support. We then test the .5 Deviation for support, finding our bottom in the $14k+/- region.
The 1 Deviation holds as Resistance. We then range within the .5 and 1 Deviation bands for 3-6 months.
We then break back above the 1 Deviation.