botje11
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Bitcoin, same picture for a week now! Waiting for new climax low

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
Bitcoin             still is going perfectly as planned for more than a week now. it is still showing much similarities with that drop from 12K to 6K. Now we are most probably in that green area, which means chances are big we will make another smaller flag, with ranges between 7900 and 8600. It's all looking very bearish now, no bullish signs whatsoever! Alts are showing a horrible picture, all of them!! I wish i could post a good clear chart of the total market cap of all crypto's, than the longer term picture becomes much clearer!

My followers know what i expect next. For more info please read my previous charts, they include many MANY updates with insights/theories and sometimes some education.

Summary, i went short at 11600 and closed at 8500 a few days ago expecting another wave up towards 10K, at 9830 i shorted it again and i added at 9330, i closed more than half at the lows today. i intend to add again IF it gets towards the 8500/8600. Ideally we even see the former big support at 8750 again. But i think the market is to weak to get that high.
At the moment i almost predicted what move we would make, i sensed a short covering moment could appear, and it did, but only a 400 point one. Now we have to stay above the 8000 to keep chances bigger that we make a correction towards the 8600. 8200 is the resistance for now, 8300 is the bigger one.


-Charts are not a picture, they tell a story, listen to it, don't raise your voice above it-
Bình luận: One of my latest updates of my previous chart. Where i was expecting another drop and than a bounce up. That bounce was smaller than i thought it would become, but it has changed into a similar pattern we saw a few days ago. I will post that picture in the next update. For now 8200 needs to be broken for the price to get some relief, otherwise we will see an acceleration again and will probably drop towards the 7500.
Bình luận:
Bình luận: It just could not get above the 8200, market is even weaker than i thought
Bình luận: I have closed my remaining short positions now. Another big ride for almost 1750 points average. We could see higher prices, but the market is still very weak!! It broke out of that channel, so we could see some relief, but it would not be the first time it just keeps on dropping because the market is simply to weak. I am staying flat for the moment. If we start to drop again i will probably open a short position again. For now i think it's time to move up a little
Bình luận: This is the first resistance it has for now. I think it will break through, but if it hesitates to much again, expect a quick drop towards the low again
Bình luận:
Bình luận: And this time they did manage. Target of the H&S is reached, now lets see what it does. §could drop again, could see a bull flag that takes us higher again, should stay above the 8000
Bình luận: More updates, if likes increase above 50 :)
Bình luận: Now the 8300 area is the next challenge, earlier it was a very difficult one to crack, lets see if they can make it this time

Bình luận: If it stays above the 8000, it could make another inverse H&S taking us even higher
Bình luận: There is still some selling pressure, it tries to make this bigger inverse H&S in combination with this bull flag, but normally the second H&S (this one, after the smaller one earlier) has a much lower % to succeed. So this will be a real struggle.
Bình luận: I am seeing some big support buy orders at Bitfinex, so chances increase we will break the 8200 and 8300
Bình luận: I give it a 90% chance we going to break it upwards
Bình luận: If it does, we will see another short covering rally
Bình luận: I thought that last push would trigger stops, nog chances have dropped a bit. Stops seem to be above the 8300
Bình luận: They have managed to create a rising triangle, so starting to look better
Bình luận: I just went long, price bounced several times now from that 7950 area (previous red area, made it green now). This could be a bear flag, but the stop is very clear (just below the green area), so risk is almost nothing and the reward could be maybe 10 times the risk

Bình luận: To come back at the previous plan, we went through the 8300, there was a small spike, but it seems there was to little short covering that would push the price even further. This means the market is still very weak!! I was hoping we would go towards the 8500/8700 to build up a short position again, but we did not come close and the weakness of this market showed his hand. They could not even pull of a perfect inverse H&S.
I still think they will make another attempt, that's the reason i went long, because price was at an ideal spot were the risk is less than 100 points and the reward could be 5 to 10 times. Otherwise i would not make this countertrend trade
Bình luận: I want to close my long position, but instead i will move my stop to just below the 8200, ensuring a 200 point profit, i see to much hesitation, it's taking to long. I think it will go higher, but it's risky, If we make a sudden drop i will go short, but i still think we will go higher so i will wait for 8600 region
Bình luận:
Bình luận: I am out at 8285, dont trust it
Bình luận: I see support buy orders, big ones, like they are pushing buyers into their sell other. I think that is what they are doing, so that could mean we wont even get above the 8350ish anymore. Going to be a difficult one. I think i will take a small portion short here already.
Bình luận: I have added at 8190, still small position! Probably will close above 8300, close stop. If we get there, probably even higher
Bình luận: I am out, i thought i knew what was happening, clearly not :) LOL
Bình luận: Again it's not pushing through, It's doing almost the same thing as 2 days ago at the 9300/9400, before we made the drop. Frustrating sideways market again
Bình luận: I dont think we will get above the 8300 anymore. It's making another big bear flag again. there could be one last small leg left to go to 8400/8500, but that's really the maximum i guess. I think we are seeing (again) distribution here, just like at the 9300/9400 a few days ago
Bình luận:
Bình luận: So i was not wrong with my whale theory, they only made it a much bigger project than i thought. They were trying to let traders build up even more short positions or at least trying to lower their stops.

I have the first 20% at 8520. i will build up towards 8800. Think they will make this move bigger and longer in time i think
Bình luận: Even though this could already be it, i am not making my position bigger here and will wait for higher prices. Risks will be to high that they can bring this move even higher!
Bình luận: Other 20% are in at 8600,
Bình luận: This could alreay be it, seen these moves few times before, but this squeeze is a bit bigger. Still only 40% of my short position!
Bình luận: Good news, i scrolled really fast through the different Bitcoin analysis, i think i see more bulls than bears now. So we don't have to worry about that indicator anymore :)
Follow me on Twitter for updates here on TradingView:

https://t.me/botje11
Comment: This could alreay be it, seen these moves few times before, but this squeeze is a bit bigger. Still only 40% of my short position!

Doubt this is it man. C has one more leg up imo 8750ish. Just hope the bulls aren't right and this is wave 3 off the bottom. I'm a bull but I see this as ABC as well just in a different count and am looking for 7200 bottom for takeoff so really hoping you get your short in.
Phản hồi
botje11 BullWick
@BullWick, Could very well be, but i just don't make specific counts like that. I just try to recognize certain (price action) patterns. I have seen these kind of squeezes more often, giving the impression that after a flag that we will see another wave up. But lately there were several moments that it was just simply the high. Look at the 9800/9900 high, I was waiting for 10K and even hoping 10.100/10.200. But after an hour or two, it just made that 1000 point drop. That's why i added just before we made that drop (which i announced here on time). Why did i get in there, i noticed a certain hesitation. But it's based on a feeling mostly (which is based on a theory of course). Chances are at least 50% we will see a similar thing now.
AND, we are exactly at the breakout level of the big bear flag, were price flagged with 8600 at the low. That is a very big resistance.

That's why i only have 40% in, so IF we go a bit higher it would still be according to my plan. IF not, i will probably add when we drop
Phản hồi
BullWick botje11
@botje11, Ye you could be right again. I was waiting for 10-10200 with you to unload my bounce longs and ended up getting out at 9650 on the waterfall drop. I'm out of my longs this time as can't be around much longer by computer and jsut waiting to long it all at 78% retrace.
Phản hồi
BullWick BullWick
@BullWick, well not ALL all but close to it as gotta leave some to throw in at 6800 should we get there or just pile in that reserve at 75/600ish
Phản hồi
botje11 BullWick
@BullWick, You mean people who think we will make a low around those levels for a trade to break the 11700. Could be, i don't know what kind of strategy believers of the Bitcoin use. Time will tell :)
Phản hồi
BullWick botje11
@botje11, fwiw I will unload that position around 10k resistence but alts will boom as many are at terminal end of corrections. Then I see a slight pull back and then a btc dominant spike breakout out of the symmetrical triangle forming. A boy can dream. I really want bull market back, current market is def a lot less fun. Last year i wouldnt dream of unloading much of the coins at 10k only to rebuy breakout as breakout was a given but now who knows. 30k or 3k both in play within months
Phản hồi
botje11 BullWick
@BullWick, That was a mean move, letting it drop like that while giving the impression that it would go above the 10K. But that's how markets work, pushing bears and bulls out ad taking their money while doing that. This move it made earlier today, is exactly a move like that. Giving the impression that price gets sold off many times at 8300, shorts should be placing stops just above that level, than you get a squeeze all stops become market orders, and we get a snowball effect. Pushing many people out who short to late, tempting bulls to get in again, taking their money as well, and than make the big drop without all those people who got scared out of their position. This is how hedge funds/big players work. And everyone in crypto world were so happy when they saw institutional would come into this market, thinking it's a good thing for crypto world :) LOL. They are destroying the market, draining money out off the market into their own pockets (if they even have room left in there :)). The signs are just so clear and obvious that this is going on, unfortunately almost nobody knows, nobody even sees it, but probably they don't even want to know or see it. Humans are greedy by nature, even if Bitcoin (or another crypto coin) could be our salvation from banks and governments. I am going to post this :)
Phản hồi
BullWick botje11
@botje11, I'm sure many will enjoy reading it. Ye 2017 is a distant memory. When I got in one of the videos on Youtube I saw (which was totally right btw) was by a stock trader talking about how easy this market is. I couldn't believe the success rate and how knowing just a few simple patterns could earn a bunch of money. Now it is shakeout city and I've been stopped out even with lotta-room not-tight-at-all stops with crazy flash spikes. Tough racket.
Phản hồi
IMHO, between 8700 to 8800 we will drop, not sure how much.
Phản hồi
@hkh222, Yes it will be an interesting drop because both bulls and bears had it popping up to about 8600-8750 range but what happens after that is where the two differ greatly. Bears see this as completion of ABC and start of next leg down hence the shorting while the most bullish count has the bottom in at 7600 and we will complete the 3rd subwave of wave 1 up at 8750 then have a 4th down to about 8400 and take off on 5th wave to at least 9400 if not all the way to 10200 before a deeper retrace.
+1 Phản hồi
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