As per my previous analysis we have already topped out. The bottom is a long way down to $1850 which we will reach towards the end of the year before the new bull run begins. This being said, I thought I would take a closer look at what will happen in the next couple weeks.
The red and green boxes on this chart represent gaps in the CME futures for June. In the history of CME futures, no gap has ever remained open (aside from a couple very small anomaly's). Therefore I believe that although we have already peaked and formed a large downtrend channel, we will hit at least $8560 again (the red box) before descending. This will be your last chance to short. There is of course a chance that we go slightly higher and perhaps touch the major resistance at the top of the channel represented by the thick purple line; however we will not breach it. Any shorts entered between $8500 and $9000 will be safe provided your liquidation price is above $9000.
What I believe will happen first though, is that we will close the gap represented by the green box. A lot of buyers are waiting here and it will make a great case to surge the price back up to close the red box gap. By going down first we will hit the gap directly in line with support, and once we hit the red box on the way back up we will conversely hit a lot of resistance. This makes the most sense. I have highlighted this using the green arrows with P1 being our Potential Target Path #1.
There is a chance though that we go up first before we go down as this will still close both gaps; though it doesn't make as much sense (though when did Bitcoin speak to sense!). This alternate path is highlighted by the faint orange lines.
The blue vertical line represents CME futures expiry for June and both gaps will be closed by then.
If the above scenarios do not play out, or play out over a longer period then we have Potential Target Paths #2 and #3 which both clear the red box gap and coincide with resistance lines. It would make sense that we go down to close the green gap first, before we would hit these targets.
How I am trading this. I have a short opened now at 7900 with a view to close at 7300 where I have buy orders waiting. I will then short again once we hit the top. This is the most profitable path.
I have a stop loss set at 82XX which is above the 55 EMA on the 3 hour chart.
I also have short orders open for 85XX-89XX with a liquidation price above 9000. If we go up first my stop will be hit, but my sell orders will execute and I will short to the bottom.
If your a HODLer - get ready to tether around 8550.
Note: Although I predict one last move up; overall I am short which is why this is flagged as such.
The red and green boxes on this chart represent gaps in the CME futures for June. In the history of CME futures, no gap has ever remained open (aside from a couple very small anomaly's). Therefore I believe that although we have already peaked and formed a large downtrend channel, we will hit at least $8560 again (the red box) before descending. This will be your last chance to short. There is of course a chance that we go slightly higher and perhaps touch the major resistance at the top of the channel represented by the thick purple line; however we will not breach it. Any shorts entered between $8500 and $9000 will be safe provided your liquidation price is above $9000.
What I believe will happen first though, is that we will close the gap represented by the green box. A lot of buyers are waiting here and it will make a great case to surge the price back up to close the red box gap. By going down first we will hit the gap directly in line with support, and once we hit the red box on the way back up we will conversely hit a lot of resistance. This makes the most sense. I have highlighted this using the green arrows with P1 being our Potential Target Path #1.
There is a chance though that we go up first before we go down as this will still close both gaps; though it doesn't make as much sense (though when did Bitcoin speak to sense!). This alternate path is highlighted by the faint orange lines.
The blue vertical line represents CME futures expiry for June and both gaps will be closed by then.
If the above scenarios do not play out, or play out over a longer period then we have Potential Target Paths #2 and #3 which both clear the red box gap and coincide with resistance lines. It would make sense that we go down to close the green gap first, before we would hit these targets.
How I am trading this. I have a short opened now at 7900 with a view to close at 7300 where I have buy orders waiting. I will then short again once we hit the top. This is the most profitable path.
I have a stop loss set at 82XX which is above the 55 EMA on the 3 hour chart.
I also have short orders open for 85XX-89XX with a liquidation price above 9000. If we go up first my stop will be hit, but my sell orders will execute and I will short to the bottom.
If your a HODLer - get ready to tether around 8550.
Note: Although I predict one last move up; overall I am short which is why this is flagged as such.
Bình luận:
This wedge in red is also potentially at play and is looking beautifully good at the moment. A break upwards of the triangle will hit the wedge resistance which coincides with the 55 EMA on the 3 hour chart (I find the 3 hour chart to work best for Fib level EMA's). Have set more shorts orders at 8000-8050 to then close at 7300).
Bình luận:
This ascending triangle in blue looks good to send us up to the EMA and resistance of the wedge before dropping to the support line of the wedge and clearing our CME gap.
Bình luận:
This will work perfectly. When we head up shortly to test the resistance of the wedge, many people will think we have formed an ascending triangle in black. So when we test the bottom resistance on the way down, people will long as they believe it is support and end up liquidated. We will then continue down to clear the CME gap and bounce off support on our way back to 85xx-89xx. Beautiful!
Bình luận:
Edit the point where people will long from believing we have support is highlighted by the pink bitcoin symbol.
Bình luận:
Edit again: The height of a symmetrical triangle determines the target for a break out. In our case the height of the triangle perfectly coincides with a break to the down side clearing our CME gap and bouncing off the support of the red wedge. This is shown with the black dotted lines.
Bình luận:
We had a break to the down side of the triangle, and now find ourselves back in it. We still have not closed the green CME gap, so a move to 7230ish is likely to occur within the next 24 hours. There is still a good chance we touch the resistance of the bullish red descending narrowing wedge; however it will only be as high as 7940 as we currently stand. I have lowered my stops for my 7900 shorts to 8100 and will still try and close at 7300.
There is a chance of course we close the gap around 8550 first, but seeing as though we are already down here, it would make sense to do it now (but when did bitcoin make sense?!)
There is a chance of course we close the gap around 8550 first, but seeing as though we are already down here, it would make sense to do it now (but when did bitcoin make sense?!)
Bình luận:
Another potential emerging pattern is this black channel. A break to the upside of the black channel has a target of the purple major resistance line right at the top.
Either way, we will find out within the next 48 hours as to whether we clear the green or red gaps first. I hope for green first, so I can long to the top and swap. So it will probably go top first and then green on the way back to the bottom. Regardless, if we close the red gap first, a short to the bottom is still very profitable!
Either way, we will find out within the next 48 hours as to whether we clear the green or red gaps first. I hope for green first, so I can long to the top and swap. So it will probably go top first and then green on the way back to the bottom. Regardless, if we close the red gap first, a short to the bottom is still very profitable!
Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu:
P2 Target has been hit.
