I'm currently looking at 2 scenarios with BTC: or .
BTC recently broke out of its downtrend and we're seeing some moves now. It found some support at 11,700 and it's been hovering here for a bit. A good sign since it shows some strength in the move up. I suspect we might be chilling around the 11,700 - 12,800 range for a bit before an eventual move up. I don't quite like the on the breakout though so be careful of a possible dip back to 10,400.
Looking at the we're seeing a key make or break point. The last two times the got rejected here it dipped quite hard. To confirm that BTC really broke out of its downtrend we would want to hover around (or break) the resistance for now and not break down. I'm fairly confident about BTC so I'm taking the option here because the overall sentiment is quite ( , more mainstream adoption, more media coverage, etc). I'm thinking consolidation between 11,700 and 12,800 before an eventual leg up to around 14,200. That would confirm a trend reversal in my eyes.
on the previous breakout did not convince me enough to be very though. It was way lower than most of the price action we've been seeing in the last few weeks. This is why I think we might need a fundamental catalyst for a boost. I'm not exactly sure what but positive news, a upcoming hyped hardfork, more institutional adoption, etc could be the catalyst that we need to begin a bull run.
To sum it up:
1) BTC is at a make or break point. breaks up = but no trend reversal yet - breaks down = more pain and suffering for btc
2) I deduced the make or break point based on the which has shown a rejection twice so far.
3) needs to pick up to keep the bull trend up - I'm thinking a fundamental catalyst is needed.
Thanks for reading my analysis on BTC and I hope it's useful to you.
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