BTC Analysis 30Apr18 More downside due?

This chart is taking a look at all the possible directions BTC can take short and mid term. We are sitting on a bear fractal on the daily with the 200 SMA above us. However on the bull side we have built quite a number of weak supports which act in the bulls favor. On top of the sideways support we have the 50 and 300 SMA. We have a higher high if you count the 4 day rally that took us to 9,200.00 Looking at the broader moves(lasting 10 days or more) we are sitting on another lower high. The market now is consolidating and in a no trade zone for me. It hard to tell where it wants to go. But It should decide soon on on which path to follow. We've had 4 weeks of green candles in a bear market and i think we are more likely due for some downside. My strategy is simply not to call the trend changes but be quick to call for continuation, once a trend has been established. Until we get past our broad swing high at 11,800 we are simply in a bear market.

At this moment im sitting in FIAT and waiting for a clear break to the upside(past 10,000), before reentering a very small long with a target of 11,000.00 I think this is the unlikely scenario though. The more likely scenario for which i have already prepared is that the market continues to fall, as such i have already moved to fiat and stepped out of the way. There are plenty of potential pivots which would create a higher low, and put us in another Asymmetrical triangle. Should they fail to hold and we break below the 300 SMA ive outlined the length of the probable move below

Previously drops:
19,900 to 10,450 47%
17,200 to 9,000 47%
13,000 to 5,900 54%
11,800 to 6,400 44%
9,800 to 5,400-4,400?? (44%-54%)