BITCOIN - Channels Inside The Channel!
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Hey-Hey!
The area between the $3,500 and $3,700 looks like almost the same as it was the area between $6,000-$6,500, a lot of fake movements up/down and Bart moves here and there. As it was then and as it is now, my recommendation is still - stay away from the market(!) but still, let's try guessing some possible moves and some possible movement confirmations through the technical analysis.
Channels inside the channel?
Basically, we have three channels, two major channels are pointed downwards and on the smaller channel (Bear Flag) has pointed upwards.
The biggest channel downwards.
The biggest channel was starting to form the end of November. It has three touches on the upper trendline and one touch (or two sloppy touches) on the lower trendline. The lower trendline is obtained after copy/pasting the upper trendline so, it's a channel and the bigger channel middle trendline (black dotted line) has worked recently as a strong support level. Several times it has held the price to not drop lower than that.
The second channel downwards.
The second channel, greenish, was starting to form the end of December. It has drifted between the biggest channel upper trendline and the middle point. This channel has more touches and this means the breakout from the channel will guide us the direction where it happens. So, watch out if the price falls lower then the green channel and falls lower from the bigger channel middle point.
The third channel/Bear Flag.
The Bear Flag has started to form after the drop on 10. January. The upper trendline has worked since then three times as resistance and the lower trendline has worked two times as support level. Now, if we see a break below the Bear Flag it confirms several price action criteria:
1. The Bear Flag is a continuation chart pattern and if the breakout occurs downwards then the pattern shows the direction
2. If we get a break below the Bear Flag then this means that the price is below the recently strongly worked support level $3,500, which will be also a bearish confirmation.
3. This diagonal black trendline on every picture is currently the major counter trendline (every time it has moved lower) and we are below of it, which means the trend is your friend and the trend is down which support downwards movement after the Bear Flag breakout.
The downwards movement targets should be:
- $3,350 (simply strong area)
- $3,128 (last year lowest level)
- $2,800-ish (biggest channel bottom trendline)
As You see on the major image then there is a guessing game where it should rise if we see a bullish move from the current area. Easily we could see another Bart move upwards into the Bear Flag upper trendline and into the green channel middle point crossing area around $3,700. Then we are back above the major counter trendline and IF the price stays there for a while then there are decent probability to go upwards after it has consolidated some days.
Currently, more favorable is definitely the bearish move after we have seen a breakout from the Bear Flag (favorable also from a technical perspective) but as said, easily, we can see another Bart move upwards into the Bear Flag upper trendline but still, there is no point to trade inside the Bear Flag.
Please, do not forget to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE button!
Thank You very much!
Cheers!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
The area between the $3,500 and $3,700 looks like almost the same as it was the area between $6,000-$6,500, a lot of fake movements up/down and Bart moves here and there. As it was then and as it is now, my recommendation is still - stay away from the market(!) but still, let's try guessing some possible moves and some possible movement confirmations through the technical analysis.
Channels inside the channel?
Basically, we have three channels, two major channels are pointed downwards and on the smaller channel (Bear Flag) has pointed upwards.
The biggest channel downwards.
The biggest channel was starting to form the end of November. It has three touches on the upper trendline and one touch (or two sloppy touches) on the lower trendline. The lower trendline is obtained after copy/pasting the upper trendline so, it's a channel and the bigger channel middle trendline (black dotted line) has worked recently as a strong support level. Several times it has held the price to not drop lower than that.
The second channel downwards.
The second channel, greenish, was starting to form the end of December. It has drifted between the biggest channel upper trendline and the middle point. This channel has more touches and this means the breakout from the channel will guide us the direction where it happens. So, watch out if the price falls lower then the green channel and falls lower from the bigger channel middle point.
The third channel/Bear Flag.
The Bear Flag has started to form after the drop on 10. January. The upper trendline has worked since then three times as resistance and the lower trendline has worked two times as support level. Now, if we see a break below the Bear Flag it confirms several price action criteria:
1. The Bear Flag is a continuation chart pattern and if the breakout occurs downwards then the pattern shows the direction
2. If we get a break below the Bear Flag then this means that the price is below the recently strongly worked support level $3,500, which will be also a bearish confirmation.
3. This diagonal black trendline on every picture is currently the major counter trendline (every time it has moved lower) and we are below of it, which means the trend is your friend and the trend is down which support downwards movement after the Bear Flag breakout.
The downwards movement targets should be:
- $3,350 (simply strong area)
- $3,128 (last year lowest level)
- $2,800-ish (biggest channel bottom trendline)
As You see on the major image then there is a guessing game where it should rise if we see a bullish move from the current area. Easily we could see another Bart move upwards into the Bear Flag upper trendline and into the green channel middle point crossing area around $3,700. Then we are back above the major counter trendline and IF the price stays there for a while then there are decent probability to go upwards after it has consolidated some days.
Currently, more favorable is definitely the bearish move after we have seen a breakout from the Bear Flag (favorable also from a technical perspective) but as said, easily, we can see another Bart move upwards into the Bear Flag upper trendline but still, there is no point to trade inside the Bear Flag.
Please, do not forget to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE button!
Thank You very much!
Cheers!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Ghi chú
Currently, nothing remarkable on the market and we are still on the Bear Flag.So, I would like to see Your opinions and charts on the comment section. If You have any questions which is pointed to the technical analysis then I try to answer all of them as good as I can ;)
Take a second and like this post and share Your thoughts on the comment section!
Cheers!
Ghi chú
We are truly on the edge and the pressure is down, You can almost feel it ;)Several attempts to make a breakout from bearish chart pattern Bear Flag has failed but sellers keep trying and trying.
I think a 1H candle close below the bear flag and below the semi-round number will confirm further downwards price movement!
BE CAREFUL!
Ghi chú
We got a nice bullish rejection 4H candle which got a bounce from lower levels. The buyers were alerted and they pushed the price back up. So, this could mean that we might see a continuation movement upwards, altcoins are mostly on the green side which is good if we want to see the next leg up but still, the price is stuck between the counter trendline (black trendline above the price) and $3,500 (red line under the price) so, be ready for the next impulse move.I'm still waiting for some bigger confirmation.
Ghi chú
New BTC Analysis:
Cheers!!
Ghi chú
The price is below the $3,550 and the sellers keep trying to push the price down, so far those attempts were failed but still, they keep trying and I don't know how much power have left on buyers to hold the price up or even push it back into the higher levels. Definitely, the situation is on the edge again and the down pressure is high!A possible escape from price falling is this when the buyers manage to push the price back above $3,550, above the black short-term trendline and this has to happen within several hours!
Ghi chú
If You hit the play button then You see that we have a break below the Bear Flag and break below the $3,500, the price almost touched the first bearish target $3,350. Currently, the price has found support from the bigger channel middle line (The biggest channel was starting to form the end of November) and we have a rejection from there. Need to collect more data but looks like the current 4H candle may close as a Hammer but let's see.Altcoins make also a pullback so, we need to watch what the price do on the next hours!
Ghi chú
We don't have any momentum after the mid-line touch. So, a possible leg down may come closer after every hour we stay on the current level!Ghi chú
New BTC Analysis:
Cheers!
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