The 20% probability of advance cannot be ruled out. In this case the upper purple TL should be the target near $15,000, but the weight of technical indications point to the downside at this time.
If the market does not push through $12k then $2,000 can print. Elliott Wave count from the ATH will be ABCDE. Whether that will be the completion of correction or just its larger degree wave [A} remains to be seen.
Glad to see someone else besides myself that pays attention to lunar activity and phases. Ironically, the exact Full Moon occurs at Wednesday Morning Jan 31 at 7:29 am Chicago time just as the Futures Market opens.
I'm looking for major support to be violated. The largest trading day we have had was on December 22. I matched that day with a trend-line and using as a similar projection to where we are from today. It is possible to go to the much lower support at 4459. The sell off will be quick so anyone wanting to buy at these levels should be prepared. I anticipate mayhem. How exciting.
Part of me hopes you are right about your predictions. You could be a new messiah!