$BTC - Cuts might not mean moon, yet

16 thg 9

Dec 2000, FFR -> 6.5%, they cut, Recession Declared in March/April 2001
July 2007, FFR -> 5.25%, they cut, Recession Declared in December 2007
July 2019, FFR -> 2.4%, they cut, Recession Declared in ~Feb 2020

Increased liquidity is often seen as a catalyst to BTC price action, but when you take a look historically, performance of the S&P following rate cut announcements has been lackluster in the immediate months following such cuts. This chart shows 2019, which obviously had the COVID wrench thrown into it, but will the September 2024 cuts follow the same pattern? If so, how decoupled will BTC's performance be from the S&P, if the S&P is falling in mid 2025?

I have mixed feelings about the cuts impact. For a while I have felt like a 50bps cut this month would tank assets across the board since 50 (instead of 25) means the market is weaker than we've been led to believe. With or without 50bps leading to a flash crash in the near term, I suspect that in the next 2 quarters we should trend up across markets as a result of the increased liquidity.

The real question will be about when the recession will be declared, and how brutal it will be? WDYT?

19 thg 9

Ghi chú

50 it is, I think the enthusiasm that markets saw yesterday at the announcement will be fleeting- the initial move retraced within 20 minutes, however SLV is up +3.6%, BTC +1.3%

I may DCA a bit here, but ultimately I do feel like there will be cheaper entries soon.

If BTC goes north of 65K, this is invalidated and the face-ripping bull might be in full swing! BTC on the 1d has a massive wedge on the RSI forming from as far back as Feb 24