Professional view of Bitcoin's History

16 thg 7, 2023

I have posted countless posts about Bitcoin, shared educational content many steps of the way. To understand the logic and trade your next big opportunity, you need to have a good feel as to where it has been. More importantly, why it has been there.

So, let's start off with the why. I am one of the lucky ones, I first got introduced to Bitcoin in 2011 - just happened to be in the fintech space and a long time FX/Stock trader. When I first saw Bitcoin I knew it was interesting, but had no concept of the scale or the possibilities.

Fast foreword a few years I started unloading throughout it's first real Bull run. Why? Well, as a trader I wasn't looking for lottery wins, looking more for good returns on the investment. (I wish I knew, what next) Don't get me wrong, it was an awesome run and ended up one happy chappy, but at this stage in Bitcoin's life it was too early to "trade" - this was more an investment vehicle.



As the price rallied, my other hat was hearing other VC's and Angels talk about Bitcoin but with a kind of scepticism, yet a fear of missing out. The issue is, Venture Capitalists are more about wealth preservation than wealth creation. You could write a book on this topic!



What I was seeing, is the VC's would look at other Blockchain based investments and make their decisions based on a simple ' is Bitcoin up or down '

After the drop late 17 into early 18, there seemed to be a different vibe in the family office, LP, more institutional investors. This vibe was one that kinda said "if it survived the pummeling, maybe it's safer than we expected".


Now, if you think VC's are all about wealth preservation, the LP's (Limited Partners) in essence the money behind the VC's, as well as other types of investments. These guys are another level, it's all about longevity, long term strategies, these are not trading moves up and down this is a long term play with a tiny amount of their pie. (which is often still in the Billions).

It wasn't until we got to this point, that as a trader more than a Tech investor - Bitcoin become interesting.


I shared a post at the time explaining why it was interesting, this was called "Re-accumulation"

You can click this post and go through to see it in detail.

It was due to this playing out to the penny, the next stage become obvious. You see, many retail traders assume one thing when it comes to investing like this. That is Big players come in and price goes up. So many jump in, this is the liquidity for these bigger players to cash out. Like I said, as a professional I am not looking to invest $1,000 to make $10 Million. We are looking at 10x, 20x bank it. Go again...

Knowing what was on the cards based on the level of re-accumulation just below and of course a factor of 10x from the lower region accumulation.

You guessed it - DISTRIBUTION


I shared a post titled "They Blew up the rocket"

These levels are pre determined, on the TradingView show with Stefan, I discussed Composite Man and the fact the market is an Algorithm, seeking liquidity.
tradingview.com/streams/WDxxroSNgb/

We then fall down to this area of liquidity which as you can see above, can easily be mapped out in advance.



Now in this zone, you could see a real ugly move up - this give off the hint that the market was testing the water, checking to see what levels are interesting to various participants.

As we rallied away from this zone, it quickly became apparent that the new top level had been programmed.



Zoom in to read the text here.


So, why was it only going to poke above the old all time high? Liquidity...

Then Where? well, down of course. Here you will see we started changing the character and the next obvious move was on the table. Again, pre-programmed in.


I shared in advance the logic here as to why it will grind up and fall through.

These things are not difficult to understand, yet retail traders mostly have the memory of a gold fish. Levels are not set in stone, you don't get a break and it's done. the change of character is trying to tell a story. It's giving the clues.

I've shared every single major move here with you on TradingView.

Now what?

You have a much, much larger accumulation move in the works.


NOT SO FAST!

One slight caveat.


We are early, it's not done yet. Your local influencers, fake guru's and the social media universe all want one thing! BTC to go up. Blackrock's ETF - you think they will come in to make retail traders rich? Go back and read the start of this post again. Retail is the liquidity for us professionals. This phase is a very, very big one. On a 15 minute Timeframe every $100 will look massive.

You really need to learn the logic behind such moves.