BTC BUBBLE CYCLES 2012-2018

13 thg 1, 2018

analyzing the bull/bubble cycles from 2012 to 2018 where each cycle has 2 mania phases..

- I tried to point out the yeild for each currency based on the price at the begining of each cycle.
- I catched and interesting identical pattern between LTC in 2013 and XRP in 2017 where both yielded around 750-1000 X of the intitial low prices.
- BTC performance and yields falled dramatically behind the market due to high competition.
- CRYPTO MARKET CAP begining of 2013 : around 150 million $ --> MARKET CAP End of the cycle 2013 : 15 billion $ ( 100X YIELD)
- CRYPTO MARKET CAP begining of 2017 : around 15 billion $ --> MARKET CAP End of the cycle 2017 : 750 billion $ ( 50X YIELD) SO FAR !

13 thg 1, 2018

Ghi chú

from Risk/Reward perspective it does not look wise to enter the market at the moment even if the market cap continues to grow 2x or 3x to reach 2 Trillion.. However adding on dips and making weekly buys with cost averaging will be better entry option for long term investment.

14 thg 1, 2018

Ghi chú

as adoption of a spesific currency increases it maturses and become less volatile you can spot the sharp vs steady increases between currencies. The best example for this is the growth trend of LTC in 2013 vs 2017 .. while XRP in 2017 mimics the LTC back in 2013 which means it is still in its early days.

14 thg 1, 2018

Ghi chú

In previous Bubble cyles BTC muiltiplied its previous ATH price by 33-36X
- first bubble 2010 1$ --> 2011 32$ --> 2013 1150$ ->> 2017 should be 36k-40k$
but considering market share decreasing dominance - competition - forks .. it looks like already topped at 20k $..

3 thg 3, 2018

Ghi chú

its been a while since the last update.. and it is very obvious that XRP currently mimics LTC in 2013 /2014.. and LTC in 2017/2018 mimics BTC in 2013/2014 (clear evidence how adoption and maturity acts similarly across all cryptos

the chart/comparisons tells us one thing for sure..ALTS have not dipped yet !!
although many claim that we dipped and the correction is over .. from altcoins perspective this is not the case imo..


LTC appreciation was 1000X and it dipped from 40$ to 1$ in 2014 !! thats nearly 98% from ATH !!

XRP appreciation was nearly 800X in 2017 it dipped only 79%

Historic data shows that altcoins need a further drop between 30%-50% from their recent bottoms..which sets LTC dip around 60$ and XRP around 0.30 $ and ETH around 250$

22 thg 3, 2018

Ghi chú

BTC’s market dominance as of 17 December 2017 when price was @19800 top was around 50% .

The adjusted BTC price based on previous market dominace (95%-100% ) was around 38K$ (on 17 december 2017) which makes sense..You can calculate the same appreciation ratio based on crypto market cap and find the same results..

22 thg 3, 2018

Ghi chú

a constant of # 20 between reward quanity vs halvening cycle top price (or market cap)

22 thg 3, 2018

Ghi chú

correction : cycle top price “appeciation” i.e multiple..

22 thg 3, 2018

Ghi chú

2011 top market cap 250 million $
2013 top market cap 15 billion $ ( 60X of 2011 market cap)
2017 top market cap 800 billion $ (53X of 2013 market cap)
2021 top market cap 40 trillion $ (projected based on same growth rate 50X)

27 thg 3, 2018

Ghi chú

we could be in correction of 2013 april top or in the crash of the 2013 december top

it all depends on how you calculate.

1) based on the market cap from the DIP to the TOP growth/appreciation we are in the correction of arpil 2013

2) based on the market cap from previous cycle TOP to the current cycle TOP growth/appreciation..we already topped and on the way down as in the december 2013 crash

27 thg 3, 2018

Ghi chú

if scenario 1 is in play then the market would top around 3 trillion dollar with bitcoin price near 100K $.. this would be an identical to the 2013 double bubble cycle

27 thg 3, 2018

Ghi chú

based on the adjusted btc price @ market dominance around 95% -100% and the reward/appreciation correlation in every cycle..The first bubble could happend in june with btc price @ 7800$ and the second bubble in17 december @ 38000 $