THE BATTLE FOR THE 200's

28 thg 4, 2015

We are approaching a conclusion for the battle over the 200's, and if I had a crystal ball, I could tell you how this will end. But, until that tech is available, all I can do is entertain you with my bold pontifications of the future...

So much going on across so many time frames, where does one begin to filter out and isolate the important information in all this noise without bias?

I called out various presumed facts, and with those "facts" I will attempt to present plausible scenarios for how this reversal of the long term bearish channel can play out to a conclusion.

First, let's note that there is a falling wedge (in orange) from the last high of 303.96. And, that's inside a triangle (in purple). Which is all in a bear channel. And, all of that is a mega triangle, but we won't go into that last one here as that is the battle for the 1000s. Quite audacious for a market currency, wouldn't you say? Personally, I like it. But, I won't bore you with that. Let's jump right into the 2 scenarios I see playing out:


Scenario 1 -- The wedge holds and acts as resistance (Ironically, this is the Bullish Scenario)
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If that wedge breaks, we will go test the purple triangle.

However, if it holds, then next point of support is 210 with a possible low of 209. Should it hold, bulls will bounce from there to try and break the wedge. If the wedge holds, then the last line of defense for the bulls is at circa 194 with a low of 192. Should we bounce here at 194, then this will serve as a double bottom, and we will go straight for the top of the purple triangle.

This scenario is the ideal scenario for bulls taking the 200's in the long run as it will monopolize on the confidence of bears that doom is in store for the bulls.


Scenario 2 -- the wedge breaks before 194 is tested (Bearish Scenario)
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Given that the fib support line of 38.2% is holding and there are two higher lows since the reversal, then there is a chance we will break the wedge now.

If the wedge breaks here, then we will not only test the purple line, but I anticipate bulls charging head on into the fib line
of 76.4% at roughly 272. This will create a head and shoulder pattern -- which, in my opinion, will solidify the death of the 200s for the bulls.

However, there is a bit of hope if this happens, and that would come about if the bulls can manage to push on through to a new high of roughly 358. Al though, the risk is that the bulls can stop at 315, thus leading to a triple top or double top depending on how you want to look at it. Nonetheless, the point being: Without the new high, bears will be cued for an onslaught of selling, until we hit that support line of 194. And, I highly doubt it would hold at that point if the triple top is made.

Mind you, if circa 325 gets hit, this will test the bear channel ceiling, but also provide false hope for bulls in that the bear channel is about to be broken. Could it? Sure. But, I would see it as an opportunity for bears to monopolize on the hope and dreams of bulls. If this sort of new high, occurs, then it's quite possible that 194 will hold when if it gets tested. But, odds are that it would not go below 215 (or 218) given that 210 has yet to be tested, thus making a new lower high again.



We shall see.