Bitcoin is going through a particular period: Bakkt rumors, Bitmex investigation, Bitfinex and the NYAG, so in these days the best trade is no trade. We need clarification before any action. Any position could be a risk. I have some levels that I am watching to make a decision.
First of all, looks like we have some similitudes with the pattern that brought the price first from 13800 to 9700, then from 9700 to 13100-13200 (1-2-3-4-5-6-1).
Right now we are on 6 again e the hypothetical target should be 11800-12200 (point 1). In this area we have some confluences: levels 0.618-0.705 of Fibonacci, old resistance zone and the trend line that worked as restistance for two times.
Now Bitcoin is on an important area (blue rectangle) and my hypothesis will be invalidated if btc breaks down the blue rectangle and the target could be the bottom of the green rectangle (9200-8800).
It's impossible to anticipate the movement, so my strategy will be:
- LONG: if btc break up the blue rectange (10600-10800) ----> TARGET: 11800-12200 (red rectangle)
- SHORT: if btc break down the blue rectangle ---> TARGET: 9200-8800
Pay attention because the next days we could see some volatility, never overexpose yourself!
This is only my idea, it isn't a financial advice
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As you can see, btc didn't closed the black dotted line, so no rush in opening a short now. The setup is still neutral. Keep an eye to the next h4 closure :)
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We have a last chance to bounce at 9700-9600. If this level won't hold btc will go under 9000!