IMO, Elliott Wave is a ton easier to see and confirm than Wyckoff. Any time we are in a downturn, you'll have hopeful bulls chime in that we are in a Wyckoff accumulation period. Now while I agree in the general principles of Wyckoff, the actual behavior of the price movement DOES NOT FOLLOW THE WYCKOFF DIAGRAM!! It only follows in principle, but it looks nothing like that commonly shared Wyckoff diagram.
Check out my Elliott Wave Chart back in 2018. Here the Major Elliott Wave structure corrected from $20k down to $3k as a Major Wave 4. Then Intermediate Wave 1 Started at $3k and ended at $13k, Intermediate Wave 2 ended at $4k (786 Fib retracement), Intermediate Wave 3 ended at $65k, and Intermediate Wave 4 is likely to end at $17k (786 Fib retracement). All so beautifully shaped exactly according to what an Elliott wave should look like.
But does the Major Wave 4 and Start of Major Wave 5 look anything like Wyckoff's diagram? No. In particular, people on Tradingview like to point out "oh this point here is the 'ST in Phase B' part, and this part here is the 'Spring'". Do you see any of that in the Major Wave 4 price movement? No. No neat little 'St in Phase B', and no neat little 'Spring'. The price movement looks nothing like the Wyckoff diagram.
What does that mean to me? It means to me that although the principles of Wyckoff may be in play, because we could force certain price drops to be the 'ST in Phase B' and certain price drops to be the 'Spring', but clearly it is not a neat and tidy and easily recognizable Wyckoff pattern. IMO, the way to trade Wyckoff is simply be mindful of the principles of capitulation but be open to the possibility that the price will not behave in a neat little Wyckoff diagram fashion. 2018 is proof of that.
Where do we go from here? Where we go is to recognize which is the direction of the price based on Elliott Wave theory. Often times people don't like Elliott Wave, because one often only sees the TRUE wave structure after it's happened. But the practical applicability of Elliott Wave is in recognizing impulse vs corrective wave in conjunction with past waves that you've already conclusively mapped. We can see that the price movement in the recent downturn from $28.8k is NOT IMPULSIVE. Look at that thing: it is going up and down like a yo-yo. That classic up and down movement is characteristic of a CORRECTIVE wave. Since the corrective wave is going up, therefore the impulsive wave is going to go down, and it is my strong belief that we are on that strong impulsive wave going down already (Minor Wave C by my charting).
Check out my Elliott Wave Chart back in 2018. Here the Major Elliott Wave structure corrected from $20k down to $3k as a Major Wave 4. Then Intermediate Wave 1 Started at $3k and ended at $13k, Intermediate Wave 2 ended at $4k (786 Fib retracement), Intermediate Wave 3 ended at $65k, and Intermediate Wave 4 is likely to end at $17k (786 Fib retracement). All so beautifully shaped exactly according to what an Elliott wave should look like.
But does the Major Wave 4 and Start of Major Wave 5 look anything like Wyckoff's diagram? No. In particular, people on Tradingview like to point out "oh this point here is the 'ST in Phase B' part, and this part here is the 'Spring'". Do you see any of that in the Major Wave 4 price movement? No. No neat little 'St in Phase B', and no neat little 'Spring'. The price movement looks nothing like the Wyckoff diagram.
What does that mean to me? It means to me that although the principles of Wyckoff may be in play, because we could force certain price drops to be the 'ST in Phase B' and certain price drops to be the 'Spring', but clearly it is not a neat and tidy and easily recognizable Wyckoff pattern. IMO, the way to trade Wyckoff is simply be mindful of the principles of capitulation but be open to the possibility that the price will not behave in a neat little Wyckoff diagram fashion. 2018 is proof of that.
Where do we go from here? Where we go is to recognize which is the direction of the price based on Elliott Wave theory. Often times people don't like Elliott Wave, because one often only sees the TRUE wave structure after it's happened. But the practical applicability of Elliott Wave is in recognizing impulse vs corrective wave in conjunction with past waves that you've already conclusively mapped. We can see that the price movement in the recent downturn from $28.8k is NOT IMPULSIVE. Look at that thing: it is going up and down like a yo-yo. That classic up and down movement is characteristic of a CORRECTIVE wave. Since the corrective wave is going up, therefore the impulsive wave is going to go down, and it is my strong belief that we are on that strong impulsive wave going down already (Minor Wave C by my charting).
For it to be impulsive upward, the price HAS to follow the rule that "Wave 4 cannot go lower than the top of Wave 1". Since this rule has been broken over and over since the $29k level, then since $29k we are on a corrective wave. A corrective wave of what? A corrective wave of the impulsive subwaves of the ABC correction (A and C waves of the ABC are impulsive of the correction).
The price movement from $65k to $29k is clearly impulsive, as you can clearly map out the 5 wave structure without breaking rules. This $29k to the $36k range is the Wave B, because it is clearly in a corrective pattern. The question now is only "where does Wave C start"? We expect Wave C to follow an impulsive 5 wave pattern - this is what I'm looking for. When we see a clear 5 wave structure where Wave 4 does not go above the end of Wave 1, then I know that the potential end of Wave C is near.