Upside potential seems to be around lower 8000, if lucky, lower 9000s.
Downside potential seems to be around 4400 as things stand.
Based on those two figures, I lean short, but only considering technicals.
In terms of fundamentals, this particular halving will hurt BTC more than it will help it. The likelihood of Bitcoin having a 9200% gain like in previous cycles is very low. If we apply a 92x gain from where are now, anyone holding a bitcoin, or even some alt coins for that matter, will be very rich in a year or so. The market will just not be that easy. I can still be wrong here, but I'm looking at a retracement that will near a double bottom, with the possibility of bitcoin exploring even lower prices.
Anything is possible, but I lean short!
Downside potential seems to be around 4400 as things stand.
Based on those two figures, I lean short, but only considering technicals.
In terms of fundamentals, this particular halving will hurt BTC more than it will help it. The likelihood of Bitcoin having a 9200% gain like in previous cycles is very low. If we apply a 92x gain from where are now, anyone holding a bitcoin, or even some alt coins for that matter, will be very rich in a year or so. The market will just not be that easy. I can still be wrong here, but I'm looking at a retracement that will near a double bottom, with the possibility of bitcoin exploring even lower prices.
Anything is possible, but I lean short!