Bitcoin - Steak and Burgers are on the Menu

26 thg 2, 2022

Large % of bitcoin "hodlers" purchased in the last 12-months. Everyone wants to get rich quick. We all know how this story ends. I have been in the room of many conversations, texts, tweets, etc. That all sound like this: "OMG wow look how much BTC bounced in one-day (after falling 50%+ in 2 months), this is the future, it literally can never go down again, HAHA, I am a genius, I will just use leverage and get rich by tomorrow."

On-chain metrics point to declining network activity:
30-day changes in ownership in hodlers over the last 1-12mo is declined by 6%
Wallets with larger than 10 btc (10 to over 100k BTC ) have declining balances on average of 1% and counting (back out the math, these are real S)
Hash rate coming off its highs and headed towards the monthly low of 158.35m TH/s

Just look at the chart for technicals. Anchored vwap in yellow.

I suspect we range for a few months, crazy PA with gamblers on both sides getting blown out of positions and liquidated, then finally we find a true bottom in November/December based on past cycles.

Do your own homework.
NFA

27 thg 2, 2022

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Large holders are leaving, what do they know that we dont?

27 thg 2, 2022

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Is Bitcoin really as decentralized as advertised? Smaller players are at the mercy of "whales"

To put this in perspective let's recall that US Median Household Income was ~67K, depending on where you live (NY, USA for ex) the median household take-home pay (after-taxes) is ~50k.

27 thg 2, 2022

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Median Income in 2020* above

27 thg 2, 2022

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"Smart money" doesn't seem to have conviction - retail dominates this market

27 thg 2, 2022

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62% of addresses are in profit: "Everyone is making money but you, bro!"
Remember, 89+% of the market is driven by retail, is that sticky money when there is uncertainty in markets?

27 thg 2, 2022

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on-chain data/charts from intotheblock.com highly recommend them as well

27 thg 2, 2022

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Time series of total aggregated flows into exchanges. Seems to point towards diminishing marginal flows as evidenced by the clear downtrend since 2018

27 thg 2, 2022

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

Zoomed in on daily for a closer look at the TA

28 thg 2, 2022

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7 thg 3, 2022

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Have a look at past BTC cycles

11 thg 11, 2022

Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu

So our targets hit. I think many people surprised to see us here.

Shared some thoughts in troll box but my view is that the whole ecosystem is in for an extended market rout even from here. At the risk of being too bearish at the potential bottom, the industry's reckless use of leverage has eroded trust in the confidence game that is cryptocurrencies. It takes a long time to earn trust back. This will likely result in the form of accelerated regulation and if theres anything we know about humans, we rarely get it right on the first try. Wish for the best, preparing for the worst. Drew this little chart up to visualize what that extended rout might look like.