Take a step back and look at Bitcoin on the weekly chart
Bitcoin made a really strong move this week and a lot of people have turned bullish, noting things like a break of the major downtrend channel. This is not an accurate assessment. Bitcoin dropped by as much as 70% at one point ($20k - $6k). You do not use an arithmetic chart for long term trends in a market that changes by such large percentages. It is most appropriate to use the log-scale. That's what its there for. See link for more on this. We are still very much contained in the bearish downtrend channel so please be careful trusting charts that make such a claim.
Although we are still in the bearish market, there are several indicators and chart patterns that give us some insight that the market is nearing the end of this trend. First, one possible chart pattern shows the formation of a possible symmetrical triangle which is often considered a continuation pattern of the previous trend which in the case of Bitcoin was a massive uptrend (source). Such triangles are characterized by decreasing volume leading to a breakout and two converging trendlines, with positive and negative slopes, respectively. Accordingly, we may be in one and near the end of it. These patterns often make five moves before a breakout. If this is the case, then we have one small leg down to re-test the trendline support before breaking upwards. However, if this support does not hold, then we may see a retest of the Feb 6th bottom (~$5800) or panic, causing a capitulation downwards where we may find support around $4800 or lower, although unlikely but all options are on the table. A lot of TA experts have been expecting such a capitulation so be prepared.
Taking a look at the indicators, we have a bullish RVGI cross which buy itself is not a buy signal but accompanied with a MACD cross or histogram divergence might be a signal to go long. Currently, there is a MACD divergence in which the two previous trendline support touches with high lows had sequentially lower histogram values, hinting at least one lower move. I expect if we find support at the bottom trendline, we would like form a higher low on the histogram (purple squiggle) giving us a MACD uptrend but not yet a cross. The cross likely would not occur until after the bullish breakout and would be further confirmation of the new bullish cycle, so if you are an above average risky trader, you might not want to wait for the MACD cross but rather confirm an uptrend on the histogram. Similarly to the MACD, there is RSI divergence, but a higher low price at the support trendline would likely result in an upwards trending RSI.
The large move this week was widely referred to as a 'short squeeze' where Bitcoin shorts were at an all time high and as shorts got demolished, the price increase compounded into large price gains. It seems as though we've already run out of gas on this move and the sheer power behind it should not be given any more merit than the short squeeze it was. Some analysts have also pointed to the eerie similarities between the 2014 crash and this one and although remarkable, history won't necessarily repeat itself but this would follow the capitulation case mentioned earlier. There are many more people who have been sitting out waiting to jump in, just look at the most recent push, but people are also more careful now than ever and more willing to pull out at early warning signs like a support break down, or worse, a break of the potential double bottom at $5800 (0.786 fib level).
Sorry for such a long write up but I hope it was useful. A few scenarios might play out. I am also more than willing to accept that we are already in a new bull market after confirmation of the downtrend break out on the log-scale. Either way we are near a large price movement either up or down. Be prepared and know what to look for.
Peace and Love,
crypt0guy
Although we are still in the bearish market, there are several indicators and chart patterns that give us some insight that the market is nearing the end of this trend. First, one possible chart pattern shows the formation of a possible symmetrical triangle which is often considered a continuation pattern of the previous trend which in the case of Bitcoin was a massive uptrend (source). Such triangles are characterized by decreasing volume leading to a breakout and two converging trendlines, with positive and negative slopes, respectively. Accordingly, we may be in one and near the end of it. These patterns often make five moves before a breakout. If this is the case, then we have one small leg down to re-test the trendline support before breaking upwards. However, if this support does not hold, then we may see a retest of the Feb 6th bottom (~$5800) or panic, causing a capitulation downwards where we may find support around $4800 or lower, although unlikely but all options are on the table. A lot of TA experts have been expecting such a capitulation so be prepared.
Taking a look at the indicators, we have a bullish RVGI cross which buy itself is not a buy signal but accompanied with a MACD cross or histogram divergence might be a signal to go long. Currently, there is a MACD divergence in which the two previous trendline support touches with high lows had sequentially lower histogram values, hinting at least one lower move. I expect if we find support at the bottom trendline, we would like form a higher low on the histogram (purple squiggle) giving us a MACD uptrend but not yet a cross. The cross likely would not occur until after the bullish breakout and would be further confirmation of the new bullish cycle, so if you are an above average risky trader, you might not want to wait for the MACD cross but rather confirm an uptrend on the histogram. Similarly to the MACD, there is RSI divergence, but a higher low price at the support trendline would likely result in an upwards trending RSI.
The large move this week was widely referred to as a 'short squeeze' where Bitcoin shorts were at an all time high and as shorts got demolished, the price increase compounded into large price gains. It seems as though we've already run out of gas on this move and the sheer power behind it should not be given any more merit than the short squeeze it was. Some analysts have also pointed to the eerie similarities between the 2014 crash and this one and although remarkable, history won't necessarily repeat itself but this would follow the capitulation case mentioned earlier. There are many more people who have been sitting out waiting to jump in, just look at the most recent push, but people are also more careful now than ever and more willing to pull out at early warning signs like a support break down, or worse, a break of the potential double bottom at $5800 (0.786 fib level).
Sorry for such a long write up but I hope it was useful. A few scenarios might play out. I am also more than willing to accept that we are already in a new bull market after confirmation of the downtrend break out on the log-scale. Either way we are near a large price movement either up or down. Be prepared and know what to look for.
Peace and Love,
crypt0guy
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Check out this forecast
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Just beautiful fractals
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