Just a rough projection. We'll see what happens!

28 thg 3, 2022

Used the BTC logarithmic growth curves indicator, as well as fractals from previous cycles, extrapolating them out over an extended period of time. I believe from cycle-peak to cycle-peak will take about an additional year with each passing cycle (2013 - 2017, 2017 - 2022 or 2023, 2023 - 2029 or 2030, etc.)

Eventually BTC price fluctuations will smooth out, and day-to-day volatility will look more like the stock market, with 0.5 - 1% daily moves being viewed as significant. I think by the 2040s, after the 8th halving when the block reward will be less than 0.20 BTC, 1 BTC will be between $10 to $20 million and the price will become relatively stable. Of course, anything could happen (looking at you, Putin) but I think this is the general direction we're heading toward. BTC is mathematical and monetary purity.

6 thg 1, 2023

Ghi chú

This is obviously invalidated. I was smoking hopium. I still have reason to believe BTC will consistently stay above 100k by 2028, and consistently stay above $1 million by 2037. The macro environment for the next year looks bad. I think the next halving in March 2024 plus a likely more generous macro environment in 2024 sets up nicely for another strong BTC bull run. I'll be accumulating as much as I can all year through mining.