billaddison

Bitcoin Parabolic to 15k Scenario

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
Entertaining various parabolic scenarios when this one stood out to me.

First the setup
In bitcoin's past, parabolic corrections usually land within the 0.5 to 0.786 area, most commonly around the 0.618 level. First off we map the parabolic curve – tested many times over throughout this bull run indicated by red arrows. Next we draw fibs from the 2015 low to an estimated target of 15k             .

So why 15k?
While recently we tested the parabolic trend line , and broke it up to 11.4k, the parabolic blow off and correction hasn't been as extreme as previous parabolic blow offs. Sentiment is still mixed and this final run up didn't get super vertical. I'd like to see something like a very strong 3 white soldiers candles in the lead up to a more extreme blow off top. So why 15k? If we fib out from the 2015 low to 15k             , the fibs match nicely to some recent key price movements (see below):



What Next
Having hit the top of the parabola curve, we should correct to the bottom of the curve, approximately 7,600 price range providing the fuel required to propel us into a parabolic blow off at 15k             followed by a 0.618 correction taking us around 5,850 (although we could go as low as 3,400 area).

Bit of a tinfoil hat idea, long stretch, but I don't think we've seen a top in the macro sense just yet.
Bình luận: Well we hit 15k.
Bình luận: Wow, so here we are 3 months since my last update and what a ride it's been! I had all but forgotten about this chart.

Because we overshot the parabolic move to the upside hitting 20k, I've adjusted the fibs in the chart below:



Currently we've hit our first target fib of 61% at approximately 7.4k. Analysing historical macro corrections, the low could potentially land anywhere between the 61% and 78% fib lines, so we still may have some downside anywhere down to 4.2k.
Very nice work!
I hope a lot of trader look at this kind of trendlines, because its the only way to draw lang-term trendlines in this chart in my opinion. Quite extreme, even in the log-chart we need to draw parabolas because linear is not fast enough ;-)

But one question: Are these trendlines "real" parabolas? So are they the graph of a interpolation polynomial f(d) = a*d^2 + b*d + c (d = day on the x-axis)?
Or are they just spleen lines or something like else...
I really would like to draw parabolas in a chart but i could not finde a free program which offers such tools... Can u not publish a more detailed picture (now
I can only select 24.11., 4.12., ... and not each day).
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Hi, man! Try to use _logarithmic_ scale, like me. In L scale all those parabolas looks like a straight lines )
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billaddison Flyingru
@Flyingru, It is on log scale. Everyone uses log scale in crypto.
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If you are right about that, people would sell now instead of holding their coin and wait for the crash.

The rare events is unexpected events. This can not be predictable.
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billaddison Manipulator
@Manipulator, I agree the most obvious plays usually don't pan out. A lot of traders are expecting a retrace right now, but there are a lot of new people entering the market so the price is kind of sticking right now.
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Really hoping we get this retracement to around $7600 first
+2 Phản hồi
I have seen almost 100 charts in pas 2014 hours and this is not deviate much . I have read about 1200 bottom too which I think is bit too extreme.
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billaddison learningearning
@learningearning, For sure, the only way we're seeing 1200 bottom is if we have an unforeseen black swan event like Tether imploding, for example. I feel like with some upcoming catalysts like CME futures launching, we might have another leg up left in this to get a truely parabolic blow off top. The 7600 support also lines up with previous horizontal support/resistance and the fib, so I like that. Nonetheless, independent of the fibs from this chart, I have some major support lines mapped out just in case:

+2 Phản hồi
looks like your prediction is perfect...
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billaddison rajasekhar_alla
@rajasekhar_alla, Thanks, this one's a bit of a long shot but it's always fun to draw a line in the sand and see where we end up.
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