BTCUSD - Price Stability is here - What is next ?

29 thg 6, 2020

Since my last publication back in April, price has performed pretty much as expected.

We did close a little above the 9.2K level at the end of May, but we could consider that within the error margin. This month we attempted to break higher, but 10K seems like a hard stop and by now we are back below the 9.2k key level.

Bitcoin price is very stable as we have been trading in the 6.4 - 9.2K range for the last 10 months. The global economy is still suffering because of the COVID-19 crisis though and it does not seem that a recovery is anywhere near, despite all stimulus from governments. Bitcoin has been proven very correlated to the stock markets since the March crash and I don't expect that to change anytime soon.

So what is up for the coming months ?
The effect of the supply shock is not felt yet in the BTC markets despite a lot of OTC buying. As far as the Plustoken BTC stash, I understood they still should have around 22.000 BTC to get rid of and everytime price comes near the 10k level we see a good sell off which indicates that they do not want to sell at any price.

So, if the stimulus continues and the market continues to react as they have done in the last couple of months, we can expect price to continue ranging within a narrow band, and everytime we come near 10K see a bunch of BTC dumped on the market until they run out of BTC to sell.

With the OTC buying continuing we probably can expect the OTC exchanges to run out of BTC sooner or later as well, and at some point this year they might have to replenish.

Q3 starting the day after tomorrow and keeping the above in mind, it looks like we'll have to wait till Q4 2020 or even Q1 2021 before we see the start of the rally and a breakout above 10K.

But hey, this is bitcoin, anything can happen ! :)
What are your thoughts ? Let me know what you think in the comments below.
Oh, and if you think this analysis is useful, a like would be appreciated :)

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