Some interesting daily candles over the last week has had me changing my trading strategy a number of times now.
At first i was expecting a descent retrace from that 4200-4400 area that would potentially kickstart a new down trend, but what we saw was a very harsh sell off which through what i was seeing out the window to some degree.
Over the next few daily candles as we where hold up in the range we saw some nice alt action which has been great to trade, some long wicked candles on btc but still closing with small bodies.
A wick down touch on the 618 on the overall uptrend which is expected at first.
As that consolidation printed its 7th consecutive indecisive candle i could see a descent move coming up, and although my gut was telling me down IMO it was still a bit of a coin flip with the previous markets movement so i stayed out and let the market tell me what it want to do, in saying that i missed out on a descent short but thats ok "cant win them all".
Again price being held above the 618 over all retrace and we have just been given a bulish engulfing today which is a bullish sign, HOWEVER imo its a bullish sign inside a down trend that had not finished or was showing signs of a reversal.
Im seeing a few different outcomes here and will base my trade as they play out, if this bullish reversal continues with some more organic volume (which it doesnt have a lot of right now) then a push to retest that 4200 zone may be on the cards.
Right now the 38 fib line is holding price down so if there isnt the numbers in the bulls we may see a failed reversal and a rejection back down to a lower fib level potentially the 786 area.
if the 38 level breaks up the next level of resistance will be around the 236 mark at about $4000 (also a psychological round number) again if there is a rejection here i can see us testing that 618 once again.
At the moment im going to be playing the smaller time frames and looking for signs of a break in trend but for now im happy to stay in btc and let it walk its way back up to 4200 to test that high.
I wont be counter trend trading on leverage against what i believe is still a down trend in play.
At first i was expecting a descent retrace from that 4200-4400 area that would potentially kickstart a new down trend, but what we saw was a very harsh sell off which through what i was seeing out the window to some degree.
Over the next few daily candles as we where hold up in the range we saw some nice alt action which has been great to trade, some long wicked candles on btc but still closing with small bodies.
A wick down touch on the 618 on the overall uptrend which is expected at first.
As that consolidation printed its 7th consecutive indecisive candle i could see a descent move coming up, and although my gut was telling me down IMO it was still a bit of a coin flip with the previous markets movement so i stayed out and let the market tell me what it want to do, in saying that i missed out on a descent short but thats ok "cant win them all".
Again price being held above the 618 over all retrace and we have just been given a bulish engulfing today which is a bullish sign, HOWEVER imo its a bullish sign inside a down trend that had not finished or was showing signs of a reversal.
Im seeing a few different outcomes here and will base my trade as they play out, if this bullish reversal continues with some more organic volume (which it doesnt have a lot of right now) then a push to retest that 4200 zone may be on the cards.
Right now the 38 fib line is holding price down so if there isnt the numbers in the bulls we may see a failed reversal and a rejection back down to a lower fib level potentially the 786 area.
if the 38 level breaks up the next level of resistance will be around the 236 mark at about $4000 (also a psychological round number) again if there is a rejection here i can see us testing that 618 once again.
At the moment im going to be playing the smaller time frames and looking for signs of a break in trend but for now im happy to stay in btc and let it walk its way back up to 4200 to test that high.
I wont be counter trend trading on leverage against what i believe is still a down trend in play.