Bitcoin and that rising wedge / 6-day chart

15 thg 8, 2020

Becoming very exciting now - which way is it going to break? Got until September 10th or thereabouts.

The 6-day chart above should be something everything is watching at the moment in my opinion. So close to the apex, you do not dare go long nor dare you short. Got to wait for confirmation. Convincing confirmation. The 11 year support trend line has now been tested twice as resistance, if we are rejected once more, be concerned.

For the bullish case the 6-day candle prints tomorrow and thus far it is showing strong upward buying pressure - can this result in a break through? Come on bulls - show us what you're made of.

I'm going to sit this one out until confirmation!



Rising wedge definition from stockcharts - checking all the boxes so far.

Prior Trend: In order to qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. The rising wedge usually forms over a 3-6 month period and can mark an intermediate or long-term trend reversal. Sometimes the current trend is totally contained within the rising wedge; other times the pattern will form after an extended advance.

Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be higher than the previous high.

Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be higher than the previous low.

Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge as the pattern matures. The advances from the reaction lows (lower support line) become shorter and shorter, which makes the rallies unconvincing. This creates an upper resistance line that fails to keep pace with the slope of the lower support line and indicates a supply overhang as prices increase.

Support Break: Bearish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the support line is broken in a convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break of the previous reaction low. Once support is broken, there can sometimes be a reaction rally to test the newfound resistance level.

Volume: Ideally, volume will decline as prices rise and the wedge evolves. An expansion of volume on the support line break can be taken as bearish confirmation.

17 thg 8, 2020

Ghi chú

That rising wedge close up - come on bulls! Smash it... I'm waiting ;-)

18 thg 8, 2020

Ghi chú

A massive sell off on that resistance trend line today. How today's candle will close will tell us what to expect in the days ahead.

Should BTC close below $11,700 today UTC time - run for the hills.

25 thg 8, 2020

Ghi chú

RSI support is now confirmed as failed. Every day between now and mid-September is downhill.

3 thg 9, 2020

Ghi chú

Got to wait until September 10th for a new candle to be printed. Can't give out facts yet.

For the time being the rising wedge has broken to the downside. Price action continues to make higher lows however, so we're still in a uptrend still in a bull market.

All that said, the trend line that is the formation of this whole idea, a trend line that has been support since Bitcoin began is now confirmed as resistance. This is something that has never happened before, we've never entered a bull market like this.

If you wake up on September 10th and Bitcoin is trading below 9.7k, we're very likely heading to 2.5k.

There's another idea that 1K might also be possible if the March low trend line does not offer support - but I'll leave that idea for later.

8 thg 9, 2020

Ghi chú

symmetrical triangle breakdown - $9600 next stop.

8 thg 9, 2020

Ghi chú

There she blows. Rising wedge breaks to the underside. Rising wedge theory says price action returns to the point where the wedge began. Which is $4200.

4.2k is an interesting number as it was previous resistance during 2018.

15 thg 9, 2020

Ghi chú

Following the break of the rising wedge price action is now rising to test resistance. There is enough room to test all the way up to 14K by mid-October or 12K in the days ahead. Just a matter of time.

No trade opportunity here for me.

21 thg 9, 2020

Ghi chú

Bearish evening star printed on the 3-day yesterday.

1 thg 11, 2020

Ghi chú

One month+ later... Fascinating isn't it?

To recap:

1) Price action breaks a 11 year trend line.

2) Price action creates a bearish rising wedge and then tests 11-year trend line as resistance once - rejected, twice - rejected, third time - in progress. This month will be anything but boring.

How am I playing it? 90% cash USD/EUR mix. 10% in alts (recently published).

5 thg 11, 2020

Ghi chú

Price action now at resistance - will the bulls push through?

11 thg 11, 2020

Ghi chú

Overbought condition continues. Might pop over 16k, if briefly. 'Extreme greed' on the fear & greed index - time to be fearful. alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

12 thg 11, 2020

Ghi chú

Now very much at resistance. If resistance is broken a run to 26k may occur. I’ll publish a new chart as to why…