Previously i posted the rules for executing a high risk counter trend and catching the bottom im a dump(linked in related ideas). The rules were not met and thus no trade was executed. We are still sitting in FIAT and this is just my analysis of where the market is headed. Our trend of Lower highs and lower lows remains unbroken(linked in related ideas). We closed below the 300D SMA(linked in related ideas) and rested on the 50week moving average. There is plenty of resistances over head, and based on the recent history i can say with confidence that most likely we will create a lower high again. I estimate that between now and 7,800 the trend will reverse to the downside and there we will see if we again create a lower low, or possibly a higher low. The reason why i dont trust this bullish move is because circled in my chart you can see the volume, which honestly was petty compared to previous reversals. The size of the candles were very small as well. This was consistent across all exchanges.
If this ends up being the reversal point of the bear trend(highly unlikely), in the shape of this suspect reversal, i will look for the 8 and 55 EMA on the 4HR to cross. It has not done so yet. Then i need to see a higher low and then possibly another cross up before i am okay with placing a small position.
The reason for the caution is pretty simple. In these type of markets you are better late to the party and still have a party, then show up at the party early and realize nobody is there, oh and its a trap + your getting robbed lol. We are in a bear market and have just closed below the 300D SMA, the key habits we need to have to be successful is capital preservation and low risk via position sizes.
Best Wishes
Ecicic
If this ends up being the reversal point of the bear trend(highly unlikely), in the shape of this suspect reversal, i will look for the 8 and 55 EMA on the 4HR to cross. It has not done so yet. Then i need to see a higher low and then possibly another cross up before i am okay with placing a small position.
The reason for the caution is pretty simple. In these type of markets you are better late to the party and still have a party, then show up at the party early and realize nobody is there, oh and its a trap + your getting robbed lol. We are in a bear market and have just closed below the 300D SMA, the key habits we need to have to be successful is capital preservation and low risk via position sizes.
Best Wishes
Ecicic
