The 200MA and 0.618 fib sequence, back again on Bitcoin?
Good evening all,
Welcome at a new weekly read up on my thoughts about the market. Massive breakout we’ve seen two weeks ago, right? Something of that size I didn’t expect to be happening, as you’ve seen in my previous write-up, however, what is there to be expected right now?
Just first I’m just sharing what I can see on the charts and combine that with the alt charts.
- Again the 0.618 fib level is acting as resistance, which we’ve seen quite a lot during the whole bearmarket.
- Previous ‘support’ is acting as resistance here around $5,400 and we couldn’t break upwards after a rising wedge pattern with bearish divergences on almost all timeframes till the 12h timeframe.
- RSI is on levels which we haven’t seen since the summer of 2018 and generally has to cooldown a bit.
- Broke above 200 EMA here on the daily timeframe, which we’ve seen happening earlier on in the bearmarket as well.
- If we check Bitfinex, the volume is meh on the volume all along, especially after the push the market is acting in indecision and there’s no follow up volume on it.
- Weekly Stoch is still topped out on the total marketcap, Bitcoin, Ethereum and other altcoins. Yes, I know it’s a pretty meh indicator to check, however this has to cooldown in order to see sustainable growth.
- The majors ETH, EOS and XRP are all showing insane longs/shorts ratios. This generally doesn’t give fuel for more continuation upwards, this gives more argumentation for movements downwards as the liquidity over there and what do we also know? Yes, the market doesn’t do what the majority expects it to be doing.
- On Ethereum the breakout is pretty much different than that of Bitcoin. Bitcoin broke out significantly upwards, while Ethereum didn’t find volume on the breakout and bounced on the main downtrendline + trying to rest on the previous breakout level at $160. Similar we’ve seen on Ripple, this one also bounced back from the main downtrendline.
- Potential rejection on this downtrendline on Bitcoin is possible, not including the fakeout in March of 2018.
- The beautiful fear & greed index is back again at the record high levels we’ve seen at every previous top.
So, let’s continue towards the perspectives.
Bullish: I’d like to see some calmer movements on the market and a correction towards the 200MA. The key for future perspectives upwards is that we’re going to hold the 200 MA for the first time since the entire bearmarket. If we do a copy of the previous examples, then I think we’re going to find some new lows before upwards is granted. But, this is the bullish perspective, so we’ll look at that. For bullish perspective I’d like to see $4,700 area holding and the 200 MA acting as support. If we go upwards from there, I’m not expecting to see $6,000 as the final base for the movements, as that level is basically the key level everybody is watching. If we blast further upwards I’m expecting us blast through that level and the bullmarket to be started. I think this scenario is quite small in percentage to what could happen, but it’s one.
Why am I stating that I think we blast through? Well, everybody has eyes and everybody wants to have a beautiful obvious short at $6,000, therefore that’s not going to be the level we’re going to see the market change, as people are going to take profits earlier or some whales will push it through the level.
Bearish: Actually just a copy of the previous traps above the 200MA. If we lose $5,000 and lose the 200MA with a drop below, then it’s quite likely that we’re going to see resistance at the 200MA back again. If that’s the case, then I’m still standing behind the retest of the lows and probably even a $2,400 scenario (which indeed is a copy of the level of the previous bearmarket -> 0.886 fib retracement level). A little sidenote in this, I see many people posting parabolics and fractals + curved trendlines from the previous markets and ONLY comparing the last part of the bearmarket of the last one and/or ONLY comparing the last bearmarket to this one.
My thoughts? Well, we’ve had some bullmarkets already on Bitcoin in the previous years, also before 2014 and since then every market was LONGER due to maturity of the market. This is a normal healthy economic behavior of a new market. After the dot.com bubble it also took longer to get back to the previous heights. Therefore I’m not understanding why people are posting IDENTICAL fractals as the market doesn’t play out the same way as the previous one, however they are alike. Can we have a bearmarket until the end of the year and start grinding upwards in 2020 with a peak in 2024? Yeah why not.
Now back towards the case here is that for the short term bearish perspective I’d like to see $5150 become resistance -> which is quite likely now. A drop towards $4,700 with $5,000 as a new resistance is a possible short opportunity, also a drop below the 200MA will be a copy of the previous dropdowns and could cause shorting opportunities.
Additional analysis: I’m also adding some thoughts regarding Ethereum and Ripple here. The problem is that when Bitcoin is going to retrace towards $4,700, then both Ethereum and Ripple will lose important levels. In the case of Ethereum it’s going to lose the $160 key resistance level we previously broke out and that will cause a ton of longs to get liquidated. Is that a good sign to the market? No. That’s a very bad sign, especially if that’s going to act as resistance back again. Therefore I’m still leaning majority bearish on the scenario’s at this point, however I really want to become bullish overall.
Overall I’d advice to be careful to everyone and take some profits when you can, the market has had a tremendous nice run in the end and you don’t want to blame yourself for partially taking profits.
Welcome at a new weekly read up on my thoughts about the market. Massive breakout we’ve seen two weeks ago, right? Something of that size I didn’t expect to be happening, as you’ve seen in my previous write-up, however, what is there to be expected right now?
Just first I’m just sharing what I can see on the charts and combine that with the alt charts.
- Again the 0.618 fib level is acting as resistance, which we’ve seen quite a lot during the whole bearmarket.
- Previous ‘support’ is acting as resistance here around $5,400 and we couldn’t break upwards after a rising wedge pattern with bearish divergences on almost all timeframes till the 12h timeframe.
- RSI is on levels which we haven’t seen since the summer of 2018 and generally has to cooldown a bit.
- Broke above 200 EMA here on the daily timeframe, which we’ve seen happening earlier on in the bearmarket as well.
- If we check Bitfinex, the volume is meh on the volume all along, especially after the push the market is acting in indecision and there’s no follow up volume on it.
- Weekly Stoch is still topped out on the total marketcap, Bitcoin, Ethereum and other altcoins. Yes, I know it’s a pretty meh indicator to check, however this has to cooldown in order to see sustainable growth.
- The majors ETH, EOS and XRP are all showing insane longs/shorts ratios. This generally doesn’t give fuel for more continuation upwards, this gives more argumentation for movements downwards as the liquidity over there and what do we also know? Yes, the market doesn’t do what the majority expects it to be doing.
- On Ethereum the breakout is pretty much different than that of Bitcoin. Bitcoin broke out significantly upwards, while Ethereum didn’t find volume on the breakout and bounced on the main downtrendline + trying to rest on the previous breakout level at $160. Similar we’ve seen on Ripple, this one also bounced back from the main downtrendline.
- Potential rejection on this downtrendline on Bitcoin is possible, not including the fakeout in March of 2018.
- The beautiful fear & greed index is back again at the record high levels we’ve seen at every previous top.
So, let’s continue towards the perspectives.
Bullish: I’d like to see some calmer movements on the market and a correction towards the 200MA. The key for future perspectives upwards is that we’re going to hold the 200 MA for the first time since the entire bearmarket. If we do a copy of the previous examples, then I think we’re going to find some new lows before upwards is granted. But, this is the bullish perspective, so we’ll look at that. For bullish perspective I’d like to see $4,700 area holding and the 200 MA acting as support. If we go upwards from there, I’m not expecting to see $6,000 as the final base for the movements, as that level is basically the key level everybody is watching. If we blast further upwards I’m expecting us blast through that level and the bullmarket to be started. I think this scenario is quite small in percentage to what could happen, but it’s one.
Why am I stating that I think we blast through? Well, everybody has eyes and everybody wants to have a beautiful obvious short at $6,000, therefore that’s not going to be the level we’re going to see the market change, as people are going to take profits earlier or some whales will push it through the level.
Bearish: Actually just a copy of the previous traps above the 200MA. If we lose $5,000 and lose the 200MA with a drop below, then it’s quite likely that we’re going to see resistance at the 200MA back again. If that’s the case, then I’m still standing behind the retest of the lows and probably even a $2,400 scenario (which indeed is a copy of the level of the previous bearmarket -> 0.886 fib retracement level). A little sidenote in this, I see many people posting parabolics and fractals + curved trendlines from the previous markets and ONLY comparing the last part of the bearmarket of the last one and/or ONLY comparing the last bearmarket to this one.
My thoughts? Well, we’ve had some bullmarkets already on Bitcoin in the previous years, also before 2014 and since then every market was LONGER due to maturity of the market. This is a normal healthy economic behavior of a new market. After the dot.com bubble it also took longer to get back to the previous heights. Therefore I’m not understanding why people are posting IDENTICAL fractals as the market doesn’t play out the same way as the previous one, however they are alike. Can we have a bearmarket until the end of the year and start grinding upwards in 2020 with a peak in 2024? Yeah why not.
Now back towards the case here is that for the short term bearish perspective I’d like to see $5150 become resistance -> which is quite likely now. A drop towards $4,700 with $5,000 as a new resistance is a possible short opportunity, also a drop below the 200MA will be a copy of the previous dropdowns and could cause shorting opportunities.
Additional analysis: I’m also adding some thoughts regarding Ethereum and Ripple here. The problem is that when Bitcoin is going to retrace towards $4,700, then both Ethereum and Ripple will lose important levels. In the case of Ethereum it’s going to lose the $160 key resistance level we previously broke out and that will cause a ton of longs to get liquidated. Is that a good sign to the market? No. That’s a very bad sign, especially if that’s going to act as resistance back again. Therefore I’m still leaning majority bearish on the scenario’s at this point, however I really want to become bullish overall.
Overall I’d advice to be careful to everyone and take some profits when you can, the market has had a tremendous nice run in the end and you don’t want to blame yourself for partially taking profits.