BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" A Slight Coarse Correction
The attempted trend break a few weeks back was premature as the blue dotted resistance line I drew almost 9 months ago (see my July 2015 commentary) proved to be too strong. Since it emanates from the $1200 peak of the BTC price history over two years ago, even I was surprised at the strength of resistance. The coarse correction is the new dotted red line leading to a trend break out. From pure technical view, I still think we will reach a $650 top over the next 6 months to a year with the possibility of $500 by the beginning of summer.
If a red line negative trend break occurs, there is significant support at $338. "The Panic Zone" starts at $275 and bottoms at $135. MACD has crossed over. Some would say this is extremely negative. The next two weeks are critical to determine the overall direction.Since MACD is a reflection and not a prediction, it reflects a somewhat subdued investor mood.
Fundamentals still are the wild card and could create unforeseen oscillations. There are several. The world economy is going through slow motion implosion. The weakest of currencies are heading into footnotes of our unwritten world history. These are, for the most part, currencies of countries that depend heavily on selling their natural resources. Venezuelan Bolivar and the South African Rand are the weakest but there are others, Brazil, Cuba, Australia, Canada, Russia are all substantially weaker. Even the Saudi's are scrambling to balance the budget. As these implode one by one, the value store of crypto-currency becomes more significant. On the negative side, there is a feud amongst the BTC miners, exchanges, and code developers as to how to expand the BTC block chain without damaging it. This needs to be resolved to create a widespread trust amongst vendors and consumers in the value of transacting in BTC. A breakdown in this trust could be devastating to the current value of BTC. We may see two BTC's as a result, the New and the Classic. Ultimately, the market will tell us which one is the better approach. A bifurcation of the BTC market will be extremely turbulent and unpredictable. It would be much better for all of us if the two main opposing factions set aside their egos and agree to a unified approach. I think this is the main fundamental reason for the failed blue trend break and the negative MACD crossover. For the short term I am still bullish long term.
If a red line negative trend break occurs, there is significant support at $338. "The Panic Zone" starts at $275 and bottoms at $135. MACD has crossed over. Some would say this is extremely negative. The next two weeks are critical to determine the overall direction.Since MACD is a reflection and not a prediction, it reflects a somewhat subdued investor mood.
Fundamentals still are the wild card and could create unforeseen oscillations. There are several. The world economy is going through slow motion implosion. The weakest of currencies are heading into footnotes of our unwritten world history. These are, for the most part, currencies of countries that depend heavily on selling their natural resources. Venezuelan Bolivar and the South African Rand are the weakest but there are others, Brazil, Cuba, Australia, Canada, Russia are all substantially weaker. Even the Saudi's are scrambling to balance the budget. As these implode one by one, the value store of crypto-currency becomes more significant. On the negative side, there is a feud amongst the BTC miners, exchanges, and code developers as to how to expand the BTC block chain without damaging it. This needs to be resolved to create a widespread trust amongst vendors and consumers in the value of transacting in BTC. A breakdown in this trust could be devastating to the current value of BTC. We may see two BTC's as a result, the New and the Classic. Ultimately, the market will tell us which one is the better approach. A bifurcation of the BTC market will be extremely turbulent and unpredictable. It would be much better for all of us if the two main opposing factions set aside their egos and agree to a unified approach. I think this is the main fundamental reason for the failed blue trend break and the negative MACD crossover. For the short term I am still bullish long term.
