I will now be looking for it to hit the lower before moving back up at least momentarily. It could possibly drop below that as well.
Possible pattern completing as well but it's a bit messy so I won't be relying basing my decision on that but it is interesting that if you were to draw the neckline of the at the lowest close above the the likely drop based on that would put it right at the lower . Something to watch...
What do you guys think BTC will do?
For starters, you should view some of my replies below because they'll show you exactly what I'm waiting for and what I expect to see in the short-term but in general I'm expecting a drop to the 8k-9k area at this point. I trade price action and as you'll see below, price is telling me it's highly likely to move further downwards right now. Hope that helps.
You are looking in the internet and asking people weather you should buy or wait? You need to just buy and hold, you do not have the experience to play the market. you are going to end up blowing your account in no time.
Buy and hold for a few years.
There were 3 perfect touches on the trendline and then price jumped up like crazy.
After coming back down to the trendline there was a ton of reaction around it and it's finally closed below it on the daily.
Half of the time when a trendline or s/r get's broken in this way, price comes back to re-test it so right now I'm fairly confident that it's the start of a bearish move (at least short-term) but I will be looking for a re-test of the trendline and a bearish candle pattern at that point.
When I trade price action there are 4 things I look for (and how reliable these entry points are):
1. Break of the Trendline or Support/Resistance (candle closes above/below it depending on the situation of course) - Fairly reliable
2. Re-test of Support/Resistance - Reliable
3. Reversal pattern during re-test - Very Reliable
4. Close below the low of the breakout - Extremely Reliable
These would be things I would be looking for to confirm a short here and will also be what I look for to enter a long because I won't be shorting BTC. Not my style when it's this volatile and I think it's going up long-term.
To answer a couple of your questions though:
1. Each of those bars you see on the chart is a candle. On a daily chart each candle represents the movement of price in one day, on a 1 hour chart each candle represents 1 hour, etc. Blue candles are upward movement and red candles are down. If a candle finishes blue, the bottom of the solid part of the candle represents where price started for that candle and the top of the solid part is where price ended for that candle. The skinny lines at the tops and bottom are called "wicks" and they show where price moved during that candle so you get a whole picture of the movement of price for the duration of that candle.
2. Re-test is referring to price breaking the trendlines and coming back to touch that same trendline again before it continues it's movement in the direction of the break.
Price action trading is very simple and accurate but most people get it wrong because they don't know where/how to draw their trendlines and support/resistance lines or zones.
If I had a bit of advice for you at this point, it would be to trade very small amounts of money until you know what you're doing. Trading real money instead of demoing helps you get used to the mental side of trading which I would argue is the most difficult. Learn price action trading and avoid indicators because they lag.
I don't have a ton of free time right now but if you'll put in some time to babypips and learning on your own, you can feel free to look me up on Facebook and ask some questions when you need help understanding some concepts. You can look me up under Jason Best and I think I have the same profile picture there as I do here so it should be easy to find me.