My personal interpretation is that the market is keen to do a recovery from $6k and we are seeing alot of excited buyers. But it is having a hard time trying to find the money to do so, and am slowly running out of steam. Whether a valid pattern or not, the appearance of the is a sign of losing momentum. There are couple of reasons for this lost of momentum but the strongest reasons is that there are a lot resistance above so this is very different from 2017 where there was nothing above. When there is no resistance, you can make all kinds of prediction. $100,000, $200,000, $300,000 or whatever pleases you, and the market will buy the hot potato to whatever their intended target is. But now in the recovery phase, we need alot alot of money to really buy out the resistance above and the lack in is not a good sign of buying confidence.
Still buyers are being stubborn, so I could be wrong. Maybe the confidence is in, we are just taking a very slow approach. Some upside is that price has constantly made a higher low despite the increased selling, so that tells us that buyers are actually holding and maybe absorbing the dip. But in order for them to continue holding, there needs to be a catalyst that would give us the much needed surge and maybe that is what they are waiting on. If that's the case then we will likely go extended sideways, hunting stop loss between $8000 and $8600. This will skew both the patterns out of shape.
Until then, I'm still leaning on the bear side and betting on the right shoulder to form downwards in the next major sell off.
Now to see how the market react, and whether is truly is going to push towards 12k for the moon target. Or 2.5k, the earth target.
If we don't touch 9k again then expect a much stronger selling pressure.
The Stoch RSI on the daily is now in overbought region, but its unclear if that is indicating bull strength or bearish incoming. Nonetheless, a downtick is waiting to happen. BTC is currently at $9.7k and this will be interesting to see how things play out near the 10k resistance.
But good point is as a wave trader we know when our count is wrong and we can still make money. In this fall I doubled my BTC stack even though my analysis are often getting wrong.
We are getting drawn back to the 200 EMA on the daily... Broke the 17k long term down trend line again (Im quite sure it was broken briefly yesterday)... fakeout?.... its starting to feel like the 12k trap... or are we headed towards the 11.5k range (from the 20k long term down trend line)...