Bitcoin Daily Update (day 178)

24 thg 8, 2018

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

New Projections: 1 day - 1 week: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,000 -$7,400 | 1 week: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30

Previous analysis/position: Started to feel very uncomfortable about short sellers nearing ATH’ and lack of selloff following ETF rejection / Capitalized on the rest of my ETH:USD and ETH:BTC shorts. Using 5X leverage the ROI' was > 100% for those positions.
Patterns: Descending triangle + bear flag
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,650 | S: $6,450
BTCUSDSHORTS: Hanging man from two days ago has marked the top so far. Return to 12 EMA is strongly expected before another rally.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0462%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = currently acting as support | 26 = -0.4%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -5.92% | 128 = -12.44%
Volume: local high is still on the shooting star candle from two days ago. That wick should act as strong resistance.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,508 | 0.5 = $5,882
Candlestick analysis: Daily doji/hanging man
Ichimoku Cloud: Breaking through Tenkan-Sen. Cloud and Tenkan-Sen are waiting at $7,100
TD’ Sequential: G2 traded > G1 momentarily and quickly pulled back.
Visible Range: Point of control over last day is $6,520 | POC over last 6 months = $6,368
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = +1.08% | 1w = -1.06% | 2w = +4.25% | 1m = -15.54%
Bollinger Bands: Back above daily MA. 3 day MA = $6,820
Trendline: Descending triangle and bear flag
Daily Trend: Bullish
Fractals: 2 up = $6,616 | down = $6,228
On Balance Volume: Slightly bear div’ with lower low and lower high in OBV.
ADX: Weekly still creeping up with bearish cross on DI’s. Daily pulling back hard and going for a 20 retest while +DI makes bullish cross with -DI
Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on weekly. Daily going for -0.15 retest. If breaks through then high probability it will re test 0.2
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.92 and appears to be creating double bottom | D = 46.41
Stoch: %K keeps pulling back and threatening to cross %D. Last two times failed, will third time be a charm?

Summary: I feel much more comfortable observing the next few days/weeks from the sidelines. Trading is about finding high probability situations and quickly adjusting when things do not go as expected.

I was very confident that we would re test $6,000 this week and breakdown $5,750 if/when the ETF’s where denied. When that didn’t happen I was forced to adjust my position. I started by covering 20% and tightening the stop losses.

Based on how hard we fell from $8,250 and the btcusdshorts' being near their ATH’ I have decided to close the rest of my short positions. I have also changed my short term outlook and now I am expecting a short squeeze to $7,000 - $7,400 before we re test $6,000.

I am not nearly confident enough in that projection to open a long, instead I will be waiting to re open my short at those levels. That could mean that I have to wait a couple weeks before re entering and it could also mean that I miss out on a big move if we sell off from here w/o getting a short squeeze.

The ability to be patient and be okay with missing out on a move are two of the most important attributes of a profitable trader. If you are not in a position and can feel the itch to get into action then this could be a great chance to work on the intangible characteristics of being a trader!