As per my previous analyses - we have broken to the down side of our 'potentially' bullish fractal. The last time this happened we created a new bearish fractal. In order for the fractal to be valid we need to see a bit more of a drop before a retrace back up (and even into) the previous bullish triangle pattern. This would create a descending triangle and is fairly likely to occur (in my opinion). How I am playing this - My previous longs were stopped out in profit; however I also hedged some shorts in case we went down. My average entry price is 10,085. I have already moved my stops into profit at 9650. My target before the retrace is 9100; so I will keeping a close eye and moving my stops down regularly. The bearish fractal may not hold, so we could go lower - or we could retrace earlier; hence I will be quite aggressive with my stops for this short as compared to how I usually play it.
My overall target for shorts for this fractal is between 6500-6900 before we see a descent rally back up.
Note: Unless we see a retrace back up to form the descending triangle - then the fractal is not valid. If we do see the retrace I am expecting, then there is a chance to short this at a much better entry price coming in the next few days.
My overall target for shorts for this fractal is between 6500-6900 before we see a descent rally back up.
Note: Unless we see a retrace back up to form the descending triangle - then the fractal is not valid. If we do see the retrace I am expecting, then there is a chance to short this at a much better entry price coming in the next few days.
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We have had one wick down, but I am still looking for us to go lower - down to the white line in order to keep the fractal intact. Currently short from 9563 with stop moved to break even. Target for leg down is 8950 where I have longs waiting.
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Note: As you can see; regardless we are starting to form our descending triangle pattern.
Bình luận:
Fractal is no longer in tact; hence I will close this analysis as trade cancelled. From a short term bullish perspective we had a diamond bottom on the one hour which was successfully retested as support. From a bearish perspective we have a number of descending triangles forming across multiple time frames. From here I think we go up to 10,100ish before a strong move down; however this is pure speculation. I am sitting this one out and waiting for more structure to form before re-entering.
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