Got whacked in this today but got out most of the position before it went parabolic 10%. Waited a while to see how this plays out at the resistance to see if it's a bull break or more inline with a stop run. Feels like a stop run. I think we've been a bit complacent here since the previous overall trade plan was working so well. Conditions for the contingency plan did not fill (Linked). We'll switch to bull bias if it does, but shorting again at 55K.
I think our mistake here has been assuming the reversal off the 76% fib and not accounting for it making a bear trap off this and running up to the 86% fib. We've seen this happening a lot on smaller charts so it is a risk we should have considered beforehand. But now we have more context, we can go for the higher RR trade again and still do well on the round trip if the trade is going to work.
Biggest BTC position on now. Closest to the area where I'd know I am wrong, this is always where I like to trade biggest. When it takes a little to find out I'm wrong and I can make a lot if the market moves my way.
I think our mistake here has been assuming the reversal off the 76% fib and not accounting for it making a bear trap off this and running up to the 86% fib. We've seen this happening a lot on smaller charts so it is a risk we should have considered beforehand. But now we have more context, we can go for the higher RR trade again and still do well on the round trip if the trade is going to work.
Biggest BTC position on now. Closest to the area where I'd know I am wrong, this is always where I like to trade biggest. When it takes a little to find out I'm wrong and I can make a lot if the market moves my way.
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BTC is now my biggest short position again at 55,350.
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