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BTC Angle Degrees Theory

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
I recently watched an old TA course from 2013, trading stocks where the presenter talked about Angles. He said that sustainable angle trends are at around 45o.

So I thought Id test this on BTC:

Starting from left to right, we start off with:

15o angle which lasts 60 days, definitely a sustainable uptrend.
46o angle which lasts 17 days, still sustainable but on the higher end, it also shows us a big shift in momentum.
65o angle which lasts 10 days, obviously looking back this is not sustainable.
75o angle which lasts 9 days, we should be very worried about a downtrend coming.

over all downtrend has been a -45o very sustainable downtrend over 99 days.
-74o over 8 days, very sharp downtrend obviously not sustainable.
-69o over 5 days, again not sustainable.
-55o over 32 days, long drop but not sustainable.
currently we are in a very sustainable -36o drop and still very close to the over all -45o drop.

As you can see the smaller angle uptrends and downtrends last much longer than the more volatile moves. It's also a good tool to notice when trends/momentum are changing, possibly for entry and exits. Along with that knowing something is in a 75o uptrend, we can be more alert, set stops or make sure we are watching the charts for drops.

Looking at the bigger picture it makes me believe that everything in the yellow box over a 45o increase is just hype and therefore not sustainable, at least without any new BIG hype and new money.

From a psychology perspective I believe BTC needs are really hard drop far below the yellow box, into a more sustainable price, before new money will be intrested again. Even then it's going to be hard sell to new investors. "buy bitcoin , yes it did drop from 20k to 4k but what a risk free investment". A drop like this, whilst puts BTC back into a more sustainable reality price, also shows that the market is very volatile, which could stop potential new money investments.

I would guesstimate range between 4000 to 8000 seems sustainable, but only time will tell.

*Note I am not a financial advisor, these are just ideas for you to think about, educational purposes only*.
Bình luận: When using the angle tool, if you draw and angle and then zoom in or out of the chart, the angle changes.

To prevent this reset the chart, press 'CTRL ALT Q' this resets the chart, then draw the angels on daily chart.

After you've drawn the angles, draw over the top of them with the line tool and delete the angles.
Bình luận: here is the same idea on 15 minute chart.

current down trend is -63o which I would say is not sustainable, we should see a retrace soon

Bình luận: retrace back to the -22o angle
Bình luận: something like this
Bình luận: here it goes
Bình luận: still moving up
Bình luận: Looking at BTC today on 1 hr chart, we can see the downtrend angles are getting smaller, whilst the uptrend angles are getting bigger.

What does this mean? who knows, I would assume it means the bears are starting to get tired and the bulls are starting to get stronger, but only time will tell, let's watch together, I'll update soon.

Funny concept, cheers :) !
Phản hồi
I like this idea, but I cannot seem to replicate a 45o downtrend overall, its coming out at -23o for me, and even checking your diagram the pink line is not close to 45 for me. Have I misunderstood?
Phản hồi
@qfina, unfortunately it depends what scale you're using, if you reset the chart, press 'CTRL ALT Q' this resets the chart, then draw the angels on daily chart.
Phản hồi
o2coins1cup o2coins1cup
@o2coins1cup, this is why I drew the angles first, then drew lines over the top manually. Damm scaling :)
Phản hồi
I love this mate. I think your perspective is useful and rare in this space. So many people get lost in the trees and forget to look at the forest. I especially appreciate your foundational idea of sustainable patterns and incorporation of psychology.

Well done and thank you for the research you put in.
+1 Phản hồi
o2coins1cup GustavoBrucestavo
@GustavoBrucestavo, Thanks Gustavo check out my next one, 2018 vs 2013. I hope I'm not right as it will be a long time before we reach 20k again.
Phản hồi
Interesting to see the angles - also good point that the angle signals how watchful you have to be
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