MacroTradingE

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COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin

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seems we going to have red weeks ahead (2-4weeks)
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red line for hopium
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poc was 47491, its now 46386.
absorbed or sold ? leaning on distribution still.

volume surge towards resistance = evidence of supply.
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Note

Big flows into bonds this coming week; risk off
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eager longs will be punished.
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red line shows bullas hopium.
dont see a any good retest of spring action.
i will only consider margin long if price reclaims and support on poc,
or market shows some signs of strength ( from spots )
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those red box is good buy opp anyway if it given.
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note

if price reclaims positive delta zone 44.9.
this will be a new range low, till then its range high.
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note

opposite view based on TA

3 drives reversal pattern
bullish divergence
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for the W(in)
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note

why CO made a range up here? and dumped on fresh demand?
btc going to further dip? like 30k?
check back later
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AKA 2nd spring?
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Not longing under 47300.
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derivative rally like 42-58k = not healthy, why volume is not moderate.
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47k is poc for this whole range up.
don't see good market buy action coming in from spot.
big longs opened in finex, not sure if its sustainable.
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note

March 26 Derebit options expiry
Notional Value 3.5b
Put/Call ratio 0.91
2 potential calls buying with bigger value 48k, 52k
puts - 40k Max pain > 28k
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note

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $46,380

Spot Vol.
 Buy: $72.7M
 Sell: $77.5M

Derivs Vol.
 Buy: $331.2M
 Sell: $386.3M

USDT Vol.
 Buy: $22.3M
 Sell: $20.8M

(Latest 1 hours of data)
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note

Deribit BTC Options
Call OI:95870 (+2%) Vol:$14M (-18%)
Put OI:80135 (+1%) Vol:$14M (+16%)
PCR:77 (+1%)

RD】3/5 (8:00 UTC) C 9289 / P 9650
YE】3/12 C 4864 / P 4076
PL】3/19 C 1888 / P 1964
GN】3/26 C 39826 / P 36170
BL】4/30 C 5221 / P 4134

210301 13:35
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bounced with push on derivatives.
no signs of strength on spot market.
relief rally possible. no bias here, leaning we do have more downside after this.
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yellow box btc face supply
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zoom out.
its another accumulation. dont know the bottom, top.
should be defined soon.
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wyckoff theory / volume anal

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volume has trend
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note

47753 CB POC
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46891 FINEX
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finex premium gone when this range poc reversed.
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continuation vs reaccumulation

continuation target should be around over 69k
reaccumulation target range around 33-40 (with possible spring to 29k)
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black ghost pattern if its continuation
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open a position after confirmation, y loss bottom or top, but there is many move to come with.
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its like dec 2020. no moderate volume in rise, but it broke upward without strength.
sideline for now
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Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $49,477

Spot Vol.
 Buy: $257.9M
 Sell: $172.1M

Derivs Vol.
 Buy: $1B
 Sell: $1B

USDT Vol.
 Buy: $18.1M
 Sell: $35.3M

(Latest 1 hours of data)
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382 support for leg up? 34k for reaccumulation?
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reclaim 618, i will look for long,
until then hedged with btc short.
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small prints from last day, keep getting smaller smaller.
lots of onchain movements.
exchanges seems refunding.
note
same happened last nov.30 ish, dec 25ish.
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4 hour vwap 46550
1 hour vwap 49002
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poc 46372

around 46k would be good point if y look for long.
not interested atm.
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dxy showing strength
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lots of absorption on range high
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and alts recovered well.

hmm? up we go?
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im buying spot btc.
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