Bitcoin BTCUSD Today's Updates/Trades
Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Update 09:30gmt 04:30est
Bitcoin made an overnight high at 6893, some 8 points shy of
the first upside target at the upper parallel before falling
away below the rising dynamic which then triggered a short
from current levels around 6844. But in the interim Bitcoin
has spent the night moving sideways in an unusually tight
range between the 6813 support line and the resistance line
just above at 6849.
It's therefore about as neutral as it's ever been in recent
memory. So can close the short is still in position here. It's too
neutral here to hold it really.
It has to break above 6870 to trigger a long with stops below
6840, looking for 6955 line and then 7150-7160 once 6955 is
broken above.
On downside so far Bitcoin is hammering out support above
the stucture sitting below it. Whilst it continues Bitcoin is not
negative and cannot be shorted. It has to move below the
6771 line here and the lower rising parallel to tip it back into
bear territory and to trigger another short back to 6698 line
initially and potentially much lower still.
14:30gmt 09:30est
Raise the stop to 5 below price on this long - the rally is so far
just a 1% pop and has only 30 points of upside left until it's a
sell again - it may get hit and likely will - if so can put a sell
order at 6955 with a stop 10 points higher at least and wait...
14:42gmt 09:42est
Can close out now - was wanting to sell but it's risky - if so put
a stop just 5 above this new high on Coinbase
If it breaks higher than that can get long/reverse with stops
below 6945. Tricky here now
15:46gmt 10:46est
this short is under pressure from stop hunting bots.
Can put a tiny dynamic under price which has a bot-like vibe
as it rises- should start to lose and flip lower once lost - can
short again/addor open fresh short once it does - or from blue
line at 6955 with stop 10 higher - ready to reverse long if hit
(as previous updates)
Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Update 09:30gmt 04:30est
Bitcoin made an overnight high at 6893, some 8 points shy of
the first upside target at the upper parallel before falling
away below the rising dynamic which then triggered a short
from current levels around 6844. But in the interim Bitcoin
has spent the night moving sideways in an unusually tight
range between the 6813 support line and the resistance line
just above at 6849.
It's therefore about as neutral as it's ever been in recent
memory. So can close the short is still in position here. It's too
neutral here to hold it really.
It has to break above 6870 to trigger a long with stops below
6840, looking for 6955 line and then 7150-7160 once 6955 is
broken above.
On downside so far Bitcoin is hammering out support above
the stucture sitting below it. Whilst it continues Bitcoin is not
negative and cannot be shorted. It has to move below the
6771 line here and the lower rising parallel to tip it back into
bear territory and to trigger another short back to 6698 line
initially and potentially much lower still.
Raise the stop to 5 below price on this long - the rally is so far
just a 1% pop and has only 30 points of upside left until it's a
sell again - it may get hit and likely will - if so can put a sell
order at 6955 with a stop 10 points higher at least and wait...
Can close out now - was wanting to sell but it's risky - if so put
a stop just 5 above this new high on Coinbase
If it breaks higher than that can get long/reverse with stops
below 6945. Tricky here now
this short is under pressure from stop hunting bots.
Can put a tiny dynamic under price which has a bot-like vibe
as it rises- should start to lose and flip lower once lost - can
short again/addor open fresh short once it does - or from blue
line at 6955 with stop 10 higher - ready to reverse long if hit
(as previous updates)
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Little local top at 6919 - this only looks corrective so far but should bounce again - no impulse yet and it may not even come at this rate...stop can stay here or can close out even-ish here.
On downside if we do get a failure from here it will have to break
below 6856 line to short again.
On downside if we do get a failure from here it will have to break
below 6856 line to short again.
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Bitcoin Coinbase Update
Bitcoin effectively triple-topped overnight at the 6955 line but spiked up above the line at midnight GMT/19:00 EST before falling and ralling for a third time to the same line at 06:00 GMT/01:00 EST, the traditional time for Bitcoin to change trends again.
It then broke below the daily dynamic which had been underpinning yesterday's lows at 6920 and at that point began to fall away in a familiar streak of red.
The next short set-up needed a break below 6850 which duly arrived but the low so far has been 6768 on Coinbase, about 8 points below the 6776 support line here.
Since then it's rallied back to the break line at 6845 and is trying to stabilise.
Cannot trust this rally though yet.
If still short can leave the stop above 6850 entry point for now. It really should fall away further from here - but there is a danger of the counter rally extending back up as high as the underside of the lower parallel at best if 6850 can be retaken by the bulls in the very near term. If so will look to short again from there.
Bitcoin effectively triple-topped overnight at the 6955 line but spiked up above the line at midnight GMT/19:00 EST before falling and ralling for a third time to the same line at 06:00 GMT/01:00 EST, the traditional time for Bitcoin to change trends again.
It then broke below the daily dynamic which had been underpinning yesterday's lows at 6920 and at that point began to fall away in a familiar streak of red.
The next short set-up needed a break below 6850 which duly arrived but the low so far has been 6768 on Coinbase, about 8 points below the 6776 support line here.
Since then it's rallied back to the break line at 6845 and is trying to stabilise.
Cannot trust this rally though yet.
If still short can leave the stop above 6850 entry point for now. It really should fall away further from here - but there is a danger of the counter rally extending back up as high as the underside of the lower parallel at best if 6850 can be retaken by the bulls in the very near term. If so will look to short again from there.
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Bitcoin Bitfinex Feed Update
Bitstamp Feed Update
Bitstamp Feed Update
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Bitcoin Bitfinex Feed
Stop hunting bot hunting mofos are out again by feel of this. They want to push it higher to squeeze the stops out above here if possible - extending to 6878 here and if they could get it to spike up to 6900 all the better- for them. The operation fails when the little dynamic underpinniing the counter-rally fails...that's the next short point from here if not still short already.
Stop hunting bot hunting mofos are out again by feel of this. They want to push it higher to squeeze the stops out above here if possible - extending to 6878 here and if they could get it to spike up to 6900 all the better- for them. The operation fails when the little dynamic underpinniing the counter-rally fails...that's the next short point from here if not still short already.
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Today's Updates so far (up-to-date comment at bottom)
Coinbase Chart Update - Bigger Picture
So if you remember 'how it behaves once it breaks the continuation pattern on the downside' will help to tell us if we've seen a significant and maybe final low around 6500 levels.
Well when it broke it should have really fallen back to 6600 at least and maybe 6500-6450 - back to the structure to left - as it always does, pretty much.
But it didn't. It stuck at 6820 on Bitfinex causing a lowering of the stop to 6845.
At least we got flat again around evens if you follow this still.
But am sorry for not reversing there - it's the first break we've missed for ages and was the best we've seen for ages too.
The Coinbase chart is winning the contest today so far.
This is the only one that has a near direct strike on the last dynamic which falls from the secondary high.
That 1200 point rally wiped away 11 days of April doldrums in 2 hours flat.
That's significant. It's another clue that the lows around 6500 are also significant - if so it will not come back far, to the 7517 line and to 7434 at lowest before it starts to rally again. It has to break below 7434 to unravel further back to 7157 at least and potentially back to the start point as low as 6771.
But so far the decline has only reached 7586 and it's a speculative buy here with stops below by 10 points for small loss if hit.
So if it's going to turn back up it should be from 7586 - hopefully will drift a little lower and give a reasonable risk reward bet with 10 to 15 downside and 150 upside
Coinbase Update
Boy, this is slow again. Just bots so far. Anyway bots or not if it's going to rally it's from from here, hence the long shot. And if it fails it loses 15 or so - and if so can look to short with stop above 7586 line by 15 points.
This is so lame after that massive green - but it only turns negative again from here if 7586 is lost
Bitcoin
Major bot battle over 1 dollar at 7611 and 7612 - ffs
Just crazy. This could be DXY.
Anyway one thing it means is can raise the stop on any longs to 7609 - and if hit look to buy again at 7592-7585 range with stop below 7585 for small loss if wrong - ready to flip short if so with stop 10 to 15 above.
Can put these orders in the market and if they hit they hit - as always, if you trade that way
Battle just narrowed to 1 cent... ! Yay
Life support...flat lining...ever seen that sh*t before? New level of neutral - so neutral it's dead.
Coinbase
Bad day at office today. Stopped out of the short at 7760 for 230 profit too early and then 20 to 30 blown points on stops that got flipped both sides earlier. Not good.
This impulse wave is the best we've seen for weeks and how it behaves over the coming hours should hopefully tell us more about the medium term for Bitcoin.
Right now it's mildly negative though not particularly so whilst it can hold the parallel directly below it as it descends.
Hopefully this impulse wave will create some more volatility once it can escape from the range it's now trading within.
Whilst it holds the parallel it's more likely to eventually break higher to 7750 which then has to be broken above to add or follow long with stops just below 7700 looking for 8000-8078 range. A sustained move above 8080 on Coinbase (not a spike) would be extremely bullish and can be followed if we see it develop later with stops below 8000.
And on the downside need to see it move below the little parallel to to short back to 7586 -7557 range. And then a move below 7550 to trigger a more aggressive short back to 7157 at least, and if 7150 then fails too, back to 6950-6934 .
Please see top left of main page for link to fastest updates
Coinbase Chart Update - Bigger Picture
So if you remember 'how it behaves once it breaks the continuation pattern on the downside' will help to tell us if we've seen a significant and maybe final low around 6500 levels.
Well when it broke it should have really fallen back to 6600 at least and maybe 6500-6450 - back to the structure to left - as it always does, pretty much.
But it didn't. It stuck at 6820 on Bitfinex causing a lowering of the stop to 6845.
At least we got flat again around evens if you follow this still.
But am sorry for not reversing there - it's the first break we've missed for ages and was the best we've seen for ages too.
The Coinbase chart is winning the contest today so far.
This is the only one that has a near direct strike on the last dynamic which falls from the secondary high.
That 1200 point rally wiped away 11 days of April doldrums in 2 hours flat.
That's significant. It's another clue that the lows around 6500 are also significant - if so it will not come back far, to the 7517 line and to 7434 at lowest before it starts to rally again. It has to break below 7434 to unravel further back to 7157 at least and potentially back to the start point as low as 6771.
But so far the decline has only reached 7586 and it's a speculative buy here with stops below by 10 points for small loss if hit.
So if it's going to turn back up it should be from 7586 - hopefully will drift a little lower and give a reasonable risk reward bet with 10 to 15 downside and 150 upside
Coinbase Update
Boy, this is slow again. Just bots so far. Anyway bots or not if it's going to rally it's from from here, hence the long shot. And if it fails it loses 15 or so - and if so can look to short with stop above 7586 line by 15 points.
This is so lame after that massive green - but it only turns negative again from here if 7586 is lost
Bitcoin
Major bot battle over 1 dollar at 7611 and 7612 - ffs
Just crazy. This could be DXY.
Anyway one thing it means is can raise the stop on any longs to 7609 - and if hit look to buy again at 7592-7585 range with stop below 7585 for small loss if wrong - ready to flip short if so with stop 10 to 15 above.
Can put these orders in the market and if they hit they hit - as always, if you trade that way
Battle just narrowed to 1 cent... ! Yay
Life support...flat lining...ever seen that sh*t before? New level of neutral - so neutral it's dead.
Coinbase
Bad day at office today. Stopped out of the short at 7760 for 230 profit too early and then 20 to 30 blown points on stops that got flipped both sides earlier. Not good.
This impulse wave is the best we've seen for weeks and how it behaves over the coming hours should hopefully tell us more about the medium term for Bitcoin.
Right now it's mildly negative though not particularly so whilst it can hold the parallel directly below it as it descends.
Hopefully this impulse wave will create some more volatility once it can escape from the range it's now trading within.
Whilst it holds the parallel it's more likely to eventually break higher to 7750 which then has to be broken above to add or follow long with stops just below 7700 looking for 8000-8078 range. A sustained move above 8080 on Coinbase (not a spike) would be extremely bullish and can be followed if we see it develop later with stops below 8000.
And on the downside need to see it move below the little parallel to to short back to 7586 -7557 range. And then a move below 7550 to trigger a more aggressive short back to 7157 at least, and if 7150 then fails too, back to 6950-6934 .
Please see top left of main page for link to fastest updates
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Sorry - a couple of updates were omitted from last update.
Here they are for the record...
12:41gmt 07:41est
At 8000 and just above it's done 1200 points which is usual limit of upside breaks.
It should halt in the 8000-8125 range and give a shorting opportunity again
Bitcoin by the numbers
The break occurred at 6850 - add 1200 = 8050. High = 8050 on Coinbase
Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Update
Lower stop on any shorts to just above 7760 to trap in some profit if it turns back up
Here they are for the record...
12:41gmt 07:41est
At 8000 and just above it's done 1200 points which is usual limit of upside breaks.
It should halt in the 8000-8125 range and give a shorting opportunity again
Bitcoin by the numbers
The break occurred at 6850 - add 1200 = 8050. High = 8050 on Coinbase
Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Update
Lower stop on any shorts to just above 7760 to trap in some profit if it turns back up
Bình luận:
Raise stop on long to 7845 to trap in 100 or so points profit - if it can't break above 7900 on Coinbase -
Bình luận:
Raise stop on long to 7845 to trap in 100 or so points profit - if it can't break above 7900 on Coinbase -
Coinbase Update
Straight back to the junction of dynamic and fixed support lines.
Failure to hold here will trigger a short back to 7586-7550 range at least and more likely to the lower parallel of the potential bull flag now in early stages of formation
Too late - bounced -anyway it has to break above the upper nearest for rally to 8050.
From there it will take a move above 8080 to trigger the next long with stops 50 or more lower.
Typo above:
it has to break above the upper nearest parallel for rally to 8050.
From there it will take a move above 8080 to trigger the next long with stops 50 or more lower.
Bitfinex Feed Update
Has to break back above 7815 on this feed to get long with stop below 7800 if triggered
Bitfinex
Continuation pattern above the structure to left.
A buy on break above the upper parallel of the pattern when it comes with stop below the same parallel when broken above
For updates in real-time please see top left of main page for link
Coinbase Update
Straight back to the junction of dynamic and fixed support lines.
Failure to hold here will trigger a short back to 7586-7550 range at least and more likely to the lower parallel of the potential bull flag now in early stages of formation
Too late - bounced -anyway it has to break above the upper nearest for rally to 8050.
From there it will take a move above 8080 to trigger the next long with stops 50 or more lower.
Typo above:
it has to break above the upper nearest parallel for rally to 8050.
From there it will take a move above 8080 to trigger the next long with stops 50 or more lower.
Bitfinex Feed Update
Has to break back above 7815 on this feed to get long with stop below 7800 if triggered
Bitfinex
Continuation pattern above the structure to left.
A buy on break above the upper parallel of the pattern when it comes with stop below the same parallel when broken above
For updates in real-time please see top left of main page for link
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Bitcoin Coinbase Update
Bitcoin has at least rallied this morning, this time from a 06:00gmt low, the now traditional time for a near term trend-change.
But the stops were set too tight and unless you were around at 06:00 for the retest of 7768 level and the break above the little dynamic which had formed overnight the move up was missed.
Right idea, wrong stops. Sorry for that.
The rally this morning has also triggered a long from 8080 with stop at least 50 lower - and with a low 61 lower than that it has been threatened or taken.
Stops on longs still in position should be just under 8020 or can be raised higher still to 8059 for 22 or so loss if it falls away more, which looks likely in the near term.
It has regain the 8078 line here and hold it to stay good now. Failure here will force it lower to 7960-7920 before it starts to rally again.
Right now Bitcoin is unwinding the early morning impulse wave up by moving down a small flag/continuation pattern and if flat here can be bought again once it breaks above the upper parallel of the pattern.
Until then it's likely to unwind some more - hence the raised stop
Bitstamp Chart Update
Bitfinex Chart Update
Bitcoin has at least rallied this morning, this time from a 06:00gmt low, the now traditional time for a near term trend-change.
But the stops were set too tight and unless you were around at 06:00 for the retest of 7768 level and the break above the little dynamic which had formed overnight the move up was missed.
Right idea, wrong stops. Sorry for that.
The rally this morning has also triggered a long from 8080 with stop at least 50 lower - and with a low 61 lower than that it has been threatened or taken.
Stops on longs still in position should be just under 8020 or can be raised higher still to 8059 for 22 or so loss if it falls away more, which looks likely in the near term.
It has regain the 8078 line here and hold it to stay good now. Failure here will force it lower to 7960-7920 before it starts to rally again.
Right now Bitcoin is unwinding the early morning impulse wave up by moving down a small flag/continuation pattern and if flat here can be bought again once it breaks above the upper parallel of the pattern.
Until then it's likely to unwind some more - hence the raised stop
Bitstamp Chart Update
Bitfinex Chart Update
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14:28gmt/09:28est Update
Bình luận:
14:28gmt/09:28est Update
Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
Still tracking within the bigger parallels created during yesterday's consolidation but now forming a rising wedge, one of those counter intuitive patterns of higher highs and lows that often get newer traders in such a tangle.
But in nearterm they're kind of right and it's OK to stay long here though only up to the upper parallels , so maybe 30 points more.
And when it breaks the dynamic underinning the current rally originating from 8000 it should fall back to 8072 and 8009 lines again.
Pretty much done it whilst writing - longs careful here now - stops (imo*) under the dynamic or 8133 lowest
Will have to break above the uppermost parallel from here to get long again.
Careful with stops and newer members please check the copy on this subject pinned at top of page
Bitfinex Feed
More of a triangle pattern with a double top here on Bitfinex, compared to rising wedge on Bitstamp - dynamic shaping up under price which day traders are likey to use as final stop/reversal point for longs.
Cannot be shorted until it breaks down below here.
Likely to encounter problems at 8232 line again - so can close out longs here.
Has to move above 8250 here to trigger next near term long - with stops below 8200 if triggered
Bitcoin Bitfinex Update
For updates in real-time please see top-left of main page
Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
Still tracking within the bigger parallels created during yesterday's consolidation but now forming a rising wedge, one of those counter intuitive patterns of higher highs and lows that often get newer traders in such a tangle.
But in nearterm they're kind of right and it's OK to stay long here though only up to the upper parallels , so maybe 30 points more.
And when it breaks the dynamic underinning the current rally originating from 8000 it should fall back to 8072 and 8009 lines again.
Pretty much done it whilst writing - longs careful here now - stops (imo*) under the dynamic or 8133 lowest
Will have to break above the uppermost parallel from here to get long again.
Careful with stops and newer members please check the copy on this subject pinned at top of page
Bitfinex Feed
More of a triangle pattern with a double top here on Bitfinex, compared to rising wedge on Bitstamp - dynamic shaping up under price which day traders are likey to use as final stop/reversal point for longs.
Cannot be shorted until it breaks down below here.
Likely to encounter problems at 8232 line again - so can close out longs here.
Has to move above 8250 here to trigger next near term long - with stops below 8200 if triggered
Bitcoin Bitfinex Update
For updates in real-time please see top-left of main page
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Trade Points over the last 24 hours
A look at yesterday's trades
It was not a great day yesterday. The first break that was missed in weeks and it was the best of the lot.
The chart below tracks the updates and timings of the last 24 hours' calls - this has been done to show the weakness/flaws in trading off technical signals with tight stops.
It's done to help you to 'calibrate your own rifle' as per stop copy pinned at top of channel main page. Usually the stops are OK as they are - but 20% or so of time the stops are out by 10 to 50 points.
The direction of calls is usually OK. It's the stops that can kill a trade.
So if trading off these signals please study this and draw your own conclusions - I do NOT want to start playing the easy game of widening the stops to 'compensate' - that is for you to do. If they work roughly 80% of time by adding 50 points it maybe will work closer to 90% - but NOTHING is foolproof. Even a special 'top-author' type stop 500 points away can still be hit.
A look at yesterday's trades
It was not a great day yesterday. The first break that was missed in weeks and it was the best of the lot.
The chart below tracks the updates and timings of the last 24 hours' calls - this has been done to show the weakness/flaws in trading off technical signals with tight stops.
It's done to help you to 'calibrate your own rifle' as per stop copy pinned at top of channel main page. Usually the stops are OK as they are - but 20% or so of time the stops are out by 10 to 50 points.
The direction of calls is usually OK. It's the stops that can kill a trade.
So if trading off these signals please study this and draw your own conclusions - I do NOT want to start playing the easy game of widening the stops to 'compensate' - that is for you to do. If they work roughly 80% of time by adding 50 points it maybe will work closer to 90% - but NOTHING is foolproof. Even a special 'top-author' type stop 500 points away can still be hit.
Bình luận:
Bitcoin BItfinex Saturday Update
The low overnight was 7820 on Bitstamp, some 30 points away from target range.
To add to the poor call the stop was lowered to 7917 and the high about 10 minutes later was 7922 - that 5 points was just enough to destroy the short for 80 or so points profit when it might have been more. It also prevented a potential reverse long from triggering in the process.
Not too good but could have been worse.
Since then Bitcoin has formed a smaller continuation pattern within a larger bear flag, emerging from its upside with a nice pulse of green up to the next resistance line at 8163 after a high at 8185.
It should come back to the 8046-8013 range where it should then rally again for a 4th and maybe minor 5th wave up which has to break above 8232 line to fly higher still today and trigger the next long from here with stops 50 or more lower if we see it later on. If it can manage this the next resistance lies off the upper parallel of the flag. A sell again from there if touched at any point later this weekend.
Bitcoin Coinbase Update
Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
The low overnight was 7820 on Bitstamp, some 30 points away from target range.
To add to the poor call the stop was lowered to 7917 and the high about 10 minutes later was 7922 - that 5 points was just enough to destroy the short for 80 or so points profit when it might have been more. It also prevented a potential reverse long from triggering in the process.
Not too good but could have been worse.
Since then Bitcoin has formed a smaller continuation pattern within a larger bear flag, emerging from its upside with a nice pulse of green up to the next resistance line at 8163 after a high at 8185.
It should come back to the 8046-8013 range where it should then rally again for a 4th and maybe minor 5th wave up which has to break above 8232 line to fly higher still today and trigger the next long from here with stops 50 or more lower if we see it later on. If it can manage this the next resistance lies off the upper parallel of the flag. A sell again from there if touched at any point later this weekend.
Bitcoin Coinbase Update
Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
After 4 pulses down Bit coin has trying to break to the upside on Bitstamp.
If it's to escape to the upside from here it has hold at 6890 and then break and hold above the 6909 line ...follow long if so with stop below 6890
Bitstamp Closer
Bitcoin Coinbase Update
Bitfinex Chart Update
Bitfixex Bigger