Bitcoin: Expect Little Until NFP?

A bear market combined with holiday trade is NOT a good recipe for trade ideas. High probability opportunities, particularly on the swing trade time frame require a catalyst, along with decent order flow. As you can see, over the previous two weeks, there was NO follow through. I have enough experience to recognize this environment and I warned my followers numerous times (see my previous article) about taking action during this slow period.

So now that the holiday nonsense is over, can we expect back to normal price action staring on Tuesday? Not exactly. You have to consider this from the perspective of volume and broad economic environment. You can't just flip a switch and volume goes back to higher levels just because we want it to. I expect this no action holiday mode to continue until the next major economic event which is NFP on Friday.

Again, AVOID exaggerated price forecasts and other attempts to lure your attention. You actually make fake gurus rich by simply watching their content (thanks to the Youtube partner program). Watching analysis and forecasts on social platforms is the same as expecting to gain actionable advice from a children's cartoon. It's entertainment and nothing more.

As far as short term Bitcoin price expectations: the fluff FREE variables that I consider have NOT CHANGED. The larger time frame trend maintains a bearish structure and has yet to compromise ANY major resistance levels. The first major resistance is the 18,500 area (my most recent short idea was from 17,595 and closed for 755 profit). Interest rates are still rising (see US 10 Yields). The Dollar has yet to produce a bullish retrace but is still in a position that is attractive for longs. All this means, the stock market and Bitcoin do not have much potential on the long side at least over the next COUPLE OF WEEKS. (Forecasting longer than that is not practical for swing trades).

Do NOT force trades in this environment. Either an opportunity aligns or it does not. I have very specific criteria the market has to meet in order to justify risk on the swing trade time frame. And there has been absolutely NOTHING to do over the 3rd and 4th week of December.

I am using this time to plan my speculative growth portfolio which will contain Bitcoin along with some high risk/ high growth stocks / alts , etc. The thing is, the investment schedule is going to play a key role in managing risk effectively for such an initiative. This is not something I am sharing publicly. Before anything else, consider specific portfolio goals, account for the RISKS and then research specific companies or other instruments to find the potential opportunities that meet the criteria of your plan. For me, that translates into about 15 to 20 companies/instruments etc.

Otherwise we WAIT for NFP and see what kind of tone it sets for the coming weeks. For those of you who like to be blindly optimistic: being "positive" does not offer any advantage or make you any more competitive in an environment that is mostly random. The market offers perspective for those whose eyes are opened to it. Being optimistic or pessimistic is a choice that is completely irrelevant to the reality of price. Stop letting the liabilities of human nature effect your decisions and instead view the market from the perspective of price. Price is honest, while people prefer to see the world through the comforting lens of their ego.