Today all about BTC cycles for better understanding this year situation.
First few definitions - I know that all of you already know this but this is a bit different explanation.
CHART is showing price and yours (buyers & sellers) emotions in particular time
CYCLES=FRACTALS - price movements shown on chart
Buyers and Sellers on the market in particular time
I want you to understand that whole market (not only crypto) is all about psychology and human behavior (buyers & sellers).
I have marked on the chart above two existing cycles (no. 1&2) and one incoming cycle (no.3) Every of this cycles has got 5 crucial points and they are repeated in cycle 1 & 2.
All this points are buyers & sellers behavior these are patterns which in the form of trends. People in certain situations behave in the same way and that is way both cycles looks almost the same. To be a good Trader you have to learn all this patterns (head & shoulder, etc.) read the news and people comments to predict price movements. This is nothing more than crowd psychology.
and this is what makes difference in both cycles and overall. On this occasion that is a reason way price is going down and BTC can't start another bull run.
The true is that the sellers are unable to find buyers at the prices they’d want and that the prices are led by sellers and buyers. In effect, there are not enough buyers for current price and that why price is falling.
Now we all know how this works now let's look at the BTC chart.
We can see that this is typical bubble formation (look at previous bubbles in history) and now -let's call them BIG MONEY- entering the scene, they are experienced traders and they knew how this will finish and in my opinion they have joined the party when price was around $1800 and it was the beginning of the end of bull market. Then we all have seen what has happened with BTC price.
Bear market has started when BIG MONEY for the first time took their profit and that was when BTC reached 20k level, experience trader know that there will be price rebound and another try to reach previous price high so patiently waits for opportunity to take big profit again in the meantime, with each price drop, inexperienced traders (weak hands) lost their money or just cut their losses and did not return to this market again.And as BIG MONEY predicted in very short time BTC plunged to nearly 10k mark and then rebound to 17k and it was a second time when they took their profit and left the market. We are talking here about serious money in very short period.
They don’t want to destroy the market and kill opportunity to profit again and that is why since then they stay on the side and patiently wait for buy opportunity to start another bull run.
As you can see without their money BTC can't start another bull cycle, whole crypto market needs few months with the rising price to get media coverage with positive news to attract average Joe to come back to this market. At the moment with all the money that has left on the market we can start only another bear cycle and in my opinion these are the predicted bottoms for each of them $6000, $4700, $3400, $1800.
All this above is a bad news for HODLERS if any left, because I don’t expect that BTC price will reach 20K this year more likely we will reach 10K and at the moment it seems to be just laughable but if we will start new bull run from $1800 level that still will give us 500% profit.
Another important think is please don't believe in fake prophets or wizards, magic etc. just do your homework and remember professional trader has a detailed trading plan and knows exactly what he is looking for and when he is going to trade. He does not flip through timeframes, but just waits patiently until the trade comes to him and most important always sticks to the plan and not trade for the excitement.
Hope You All Enjoyed. Thumbs up if you agree.
This is for education purpose only.
I have never said don't buy, there is many buy opportunities when the price goes down, see my previous TA's.
Buy low sell high it is well known tactic but don't gamble and buy only when reversal of trends must be confirmed.
hope that would never come true.
I'm glad I could help