Firstly, apologies for the size of the chart - I had to fit in 3 cycles, so the size is a little small. Also, ignore all Fib levels above the 1. I forgot to remove them.
The chart in itself is very simple, and as close to a cheat-sheet as you are likely to find, in my opinion.
I have used 3 indicators to produce this chart:
1. Fibonacci Retracements
2. 200 Week Moving Average
3. RSI
If we look at the past two BTC bear markets, the 2013-2015 cycle, and the 2017-2019 cycle, we can see 3 things:
1. The -0.5 Fib level, with the cycle top as the 1 and the mid-cycle bottom as the 0, is the bear market bottom.
2. Although the bottom may wick below it, reaching the -0.5 Fib, the 200 Week MA is the support line, and the wick below it will be very brief, and it will return above it as support almost immediately.
3. When the RSI touches the Oversold line on the Weekly timeframe, it correlates with the two indicators above, and indicates a bottom for the bear market.
So, looking at all that, where are we now?
Well, almost there, is where. We don't have far to go. IF we wick down to the -0.5 Fib, before bouncing back and holding the 200 Weekly MA, we're looking at ~$19,000 bottom. If we don't wick down and hold the 200, we're looking at ~$22k-$24k bottom.
Remember, anything can happen in crypto - black swan and unforeseen events, but this is as good as predicting the future as I can do. :)
PS - This is not financial advice. ;)
The chart in itself is very simple, and as close to a cheat-sheet as you are likely to find, in my opinion.
I have used 3 indicators to produce this chart:
1. Fibonacci Retracements
2. 200 Week Moving Average
3. RSI
If we look at the past two BTC bear markets, the 2013-2015 cycle, and the 2017-2019 cycle, we can see 3 things:
1. The -0.5 Fib level, with the cycle top as the 1 and the mid-cycle bottom as the 0, is the bear market bottom.
2. Although the bottom may wick below it, reaching the -0.5 Fib, the 200 Week MA is the support line, and the wick below it will be very brief, and it will return above it as support almost immediately.
3. When the RSI touches the Oversold line on the Weekly timeframe, it correlates with the two indicators above, and indicates a bottom for the bear market.
So, looking at all that, where are we now?
Well, almost there, is where. We don't have far to go. IF we wick down to the -0.5 Fib, before bouncing back and holding the 200 Weekly MA, we're looking at ~$19,000 bottom. If we don't wick down and hold the 200, we're looking at ~$22k-$24k bottom.
Remember, anything can happen in crypto - black swan and unforeseen events, but this is as good as predicting the future as I can do. :)
PS - This is not financial advice. ;)