Geometric Fractal Forming - Long from 77XX then Short from 85XX
We have an emerging geometric fractal forming on the. A geometric fractal is a recurring geometric pattern that is repeated on all time frames as opposed to a candlestick fractal. I have seen this fractal many times and it is generally bullish and plays out as per the black arrows below. Therefore I now believe we might head down to 7700ish before moving up towards our top resistance and clearing our red CME gap. Please note: The black arrows are indicative of approximate price action and not an exact path. As we learn more it can be mapped out more closely to the fractal.
This fractal coincides with the big drop expected by CME futures expiration at the end of the month; and clears both existing CME gaps. It gives some nice opportunities to trade as well.
I am now closing my 79xx shorts when we hit 7700 for a profit.
Entering longs laddered between 7600-7700 and aiming to close above 8550.
Re-entering shorts laddered between 8550 and 8900. Aiming to close around 7500.
Re-entering longs 7500-8400.
Short 8400 - bottom. Keeping in mind there may be a final wick up to resistance designed to liquidate high lev shorts.
Final note: Fractals can change quickly, so if I don't see a move down shortly to 7700ish followed by a bounce, then this idea is invalidated. If we do see this; then I am playing as specified above (for now unless something changes).
This fractal coincides with the big drop expected by CME futures expiration at the end of the month; and clears both existing CME gaps. It gives some nice opportunities to trade as well.
I am now closing my 79xx shorts when we hit 7700 for a profit.
Entering longs laddered between 7600-7700 and aiming to close above 8550.
Re-entering shorts laddered between 8550 and 8900. Aiming to close around 7500.
Re-entering longs 7500-8400.
Short 8400 - bottom. Keeping in mind there may be a final wick up to resistance designed to liquidate high lev shorts.
Final note: Fractals can change quickly, so if I don't see a move down shortly to 7700ish followed by a bounce, then this idea is invalidated. If we do see this; then I am playing as specified above (for now unless something changes).
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I have moved the big dump to July, as I don't think it will actually happen before CME futures expiration at the end of June. Just to clarify why I believe there will be one last wick up to the top (as highlighted below) - the drop represented by the red arrow will be vicious. This will create a gap in the CME futures that will need to be closed by June 30. The wick up will simultaneously close the gap and re-confirm the purple long term down trend channel as resistance. Then we drop to 1850 by year end!
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Looking for a break down of the 55 EMA on the one hour chart. Aim is for around 7670 but we will first likely find brief support at the purple dotted line. Have longs waiting for the next leg back up to the top.
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Have broken down below the 55 EMA. We should see the next leg down within the hour.
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Symetrical triangle has formed. Break out / down imminent. It could actually go either way here. The height of the pattern takes us to either the bottom of the pattern where I originally expected it to; or alternatively to the top of the highlighted wedge pattern that is forming. 50/50 either way here. I have changed to hedged bets either way which fairly tight stops outside the pattern. That way the loser will be stopped out pretty early; and the winner I will let ride.
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Break to the down side as expected. Looking to long soon once we confirm where the bottom is as I doubt we have found it. Looking for just under or around 7700 as as start for longs. We are sitting close to support of the small channel we are in currently, but a move down to 7700 seems likely. From here a bounce and subsequent break to the upside of the channel forms a nice ascending triangle to take us up to the top.
We do however need to be mindful of a further move down to clear the green CME gap; however as previously mentioned I believe we will bounce from around here and go up and clear the red gap before we go back down to close the green gap. I have longs waiting at 7000-7250 just in case we do.
We do however need to be mindful of a further move down to clear the green CME gap; however as previously mentioned I believe we will bounce from around here and go up and clear the red gap before we go back down to close the green gap. I have longs waiting at 7000-7250 just in case we do.
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Dropped lower than expected, but it does not look like we will clear the Green CME Gap just yet. We also now have a new gap above us; so will start a new analysis based on the latest developments (though not much really changes) Entering longs now.
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